date: Fri Mar 26 07:59:55 2004
from: Phil Jones <p.jones@uea.ac.uk>
subject: Re: [Fwd: Interesting Abtstract]
to: Tom Wigley <wigley@cgd.ucar.edu>

    Tom,
       Possibly will one day - not soon, but later this year. For Keith's Rapid project we've
   got all
    the early Greenland data, which enables a couple of the sites on the western side to be
    taken back to the early 19th century. When this gets written up, I'll add in proper
   correlations
    with the NAO.
       For Easter, I'll give Sarah a call and see what a good time might be. I'll bring the
   Greenland
    file.
    Cheers
    Phil
   At 12:50 25/03/2004 -0700, you wrote:

     Thanks Phil -- in a word, you seem to think the paper is crap.
     So, what can one do? Seems like it is worth putting such an
     opinion in print -- or doing it right.
     Tom.
     ================
     Phil Jones wrote:

      Tom,
         I got the whole paper.
      Below is how to do it. This comes from being on the Climatic Change editorial board.
      As an ex-member you can use it if you don't download everything. The fact that the
      copy I produced is no longer in my bag is indicative.  It's now in the pile to be
     filed.
      It has the words, this is wrong, this is crap in red on several pages. There was a lot
      of unwarranted speculation, many of the correlations (those in the abstract) come
      after filtering both series with a 5-year running mean !!  Abstract didn't say that -
     seems
      important when using the NAO.
         Also, it said that a most promising NAO reconstructions was Appenzeller et al. !
      This has no correlation with real world NAO that I could find, nor any relationship
     with
      Ed Cook's or Jurg Luterbacher's.
      Cheers
      Phil

       Access to the journal is now available and easier than ever via Kluwer's own website.
     Therefore as of 1st August 2003, your free access to the journal via a third party
     service, Ingenta, will come to an end.  Naturally, as members of the Editorial Board,
     your free access will continue though the Kluwer site.

     Below you will find your new access codes for the free electronic version.  These codes
     are personal to you and care should be taken against discovery and use by others.

     >  Go to the journal's homepage at [1]http://www.kluweronline.com/issn/0165-0009
     >  click on 'Journal contents',
     >  and then click on the issue you wish to access.
     >  When you wish to look at an article, you will be asked for a username and password:
         Username: climboard
         Password: ILIM0009
     >  You can now select the papers from the online version of the journal and view them in
     a PDF.
     At 09:58 25/03/2004 -0700, you wrote:

     Phil,
     What do you think of this?
     Tom.
     =================
     -------- Original Message --------
     Subject: Interesting Abtstract
     Date: Mon, 22 Mar 2004 08:34:57 -0700
     From: Joel Smith [2]<JSmith@stratusconsulting.com>
     To: Tom Wigley (E-mail) [3]<wigley@ucar.edu>
     CC: Jane Leggett (E-mail) [4]<leggett.jane@epa.gov>
     Tom,
     Relevant to our discussion about rapid melting of the Greeland Ice Sheet.
     Joel
     Climatic Change
     63 (1-2): 201-221, March 2004
     Global Warming and the Greenland Ice Sheet
     Petr Chylek
     Space and Remote Sensing Sciences, Los Alamos National Laboratory, Mail Stop D436, Los
     Alamos, NM 87545, and Department of Physics, New Mexico State University, Las Cruces,
     NM, U.S.A. E-mail: [5]chylek@lanl.gov <[6]mailto:chylek@lanl.gov>; Department of Physics
     and Atmospheric Science, Dalhousie University, Halifax, NS, Canada B3H 3J5
     Jason E. Box
     Byrd Polar Research Center, Ohio State University, Columbus, OH 43210, U.S.A.
     Glen Lesins
     Department of Physics and Atmospheric Science, Dalhousie University, Halifax, NS, Canada
     B3H 3J5
     Abstract
     The Greenland coastal temperatures have followed the early 20th century global warming
     trend. Since 1940, however, the Greenland coastal stations data have undergone
     predominantly a cooling trend. At the summit of the Greenland ice sheet the summer
     average temperature has decreased at the rate of 2.2 C per decade since the beginning
     of the measurements in 1987. This suggests that the Greenland ice sheet and coastal
     regions are not following the current global warming trend. A considerable and rapid
     warming over all of coastal Greenland occurred in the 1920s when the average annual
     surface air temperature rose between 2 and 4 C in less than ten years (at some stations
     the increase in winter temperature was as high as 6 C). This rapid warming, at a time
     when the change in anthropogenic production of greenhouse gases was well below the
     current level, suggests a high natural variability in the regional climate. High
     anticorrelations (r = -0.84 to -0.93) between the NAO (North Atlantic Oscillation) index
     and Greenland temperature time series suggest a physical connection between these
     processes. Therefore, the future changes in the NAO and Northern Annular Mode may be of
     critical consequence to the future temperature forcing of the Greenland ice sheet melt
     rates.
     Joel B. Smith
     Stratus Consulting Inc.
     P.O. Box 4059
     Boulder, CO 80306-4059 USA
     Tel: 1-303-381-8218
     Fax: 1-303-381-8200
     [7]jsmith@stratusconsulting.com
     [8]www.stratusconsulting.com

     Prof. Phil Jones
     Climatic Research Unit        Telephone +44 (0) 1603 592090
     School of Environmental Sciences    Fax +44 (0) 1603 507784
     University of East Anglia
     Norwich                          Email    [9]p.jones@uea.ac.uk
     NR4 7TJ
     UK
     ----------------------------------------------------------------------------


     Prof. Phil Jones
     Climatic Research Unit        Telephone +44 (0) 1603 592090
     School of Environmental Sciences    Fax +44 (0) 1603 507784
     University of East Anglia
     Norwich                          Email    p.jones@uea.ac.uk
     NR4 7TJ
     UK
     ----------------------------------------------------------------------------

