date: Tue, 21 Jan 2003 11:18:37 -0000
from: Dan Tapster <dan.tapster@bbc.co.uk>
subject: Draft script for climate change
to: "'m.hulme@uea.ac.uk'" <m.hulme@uea.ac.uk>

   Dear Dr  Hulme,
   Thanks for taking the time to talk to me this morning. As discussed, I'm sending you the
   latest copy of the script for this programme.  It would be great for me if you could read
   it and let me know your thoughts.



   My background is zoology,  so I'm no climate change expert so there may be errors or
   serious omissions in there which would be very useful to know about.    I'd be grateful if
   you could send me your hourly/daily rate as a script consultant so that I can budget your
   time and also advise you how long we can afford for you to help!!



   At this stage I'm guessing that you will certainly question the sea-level rising by 55
   metres if Antarctica melts.  Remember that this is about the future of Britain - not just
   the short term but also the long term (hence the piece about the arrival of the next ice
   age).


    After getting your initial thoughts it would be great if I could visit the Centre and meet
   various people whose advice is essential, but I can certainly arrange this through
   Asher.
   Please do keep this script confidential for the time being!
   Dan
     ______________________________________________________________________________________

                                    8.  THE FUTURE OF BRITAIN


   Last changed:  19 December 2002
        Dan Tapster


   SERIES TITLE



   1.  TEASE


   Waves crash against the Scottish coast.


   Aerials over coastline


   Pick out Presenter walking across barren looking landscape


   Crash into Presenter











   Images from other episodes -


   volcanoes spitting fire



   Scotland's mountains being created




   Tropical seas rising and falling graphic






   Trees felled


   Agriculture spreads over the UK


   T/L of motorways and cities being built


   Graphics:  As Presenter walks and talks on Lewis,  roads begin to appear and then houses
   and sky-scrapers
















   I'm on the remote island of Lewis.  8 weeks ago,  at the start of this series,  this was
   where I started my journey through Britain's history.  I came here for these.  Rocks.
   Lewissian gneiss to be more precise.  Why are they important?  Because they are the oldest
   part of the British Isles formed over 3 billion years ago.  Even in geological terms,
   these are the ultimate survivors.  Since they've been deposited they have seen some amazing
   things........



   They've felt the force of volcanoes erupting across Britain.


   They've survived huge mountain ranges - bigger than the Himalayas being pushed up from the
   Earth's mantle


   They've been hundreds of feet underwater in tropical seas.


   And in recent years,  they've seen humans change their environment incredibly....


   Forests were felled,


   Land was turned to agriculture


   And the growth of grey.


   But what will these great surviving rocks see in the future?  Will humans continue to
   dominate the changes we see in our landscape?  Will somewhere as remote as Lewis eventually
   succumb to the growth of grey?  In this programme I'm going to find out what the future
   holds for our beloved Britain.


   PROGRAMME TITLE


   THE FUTURE OF BRITAIN

   2.  THE CLIMATE IS CHANGING


   Lush spring flower meadow of Gilbert White's house


   Locked off Time/lapse of spring flowers erupting into bloom (field has oak and ash trees in
   it).  Presenter walks into garden.









   Brief details of church





   Details of windows






   NH cutaways.



   Back to Presenter in garden




















   Time/lapse of poppies bursting into flower







   Time/lapse of oak trees going to leaf.







   Back to Presenter










   Feeling of food-chain disruption



   Back to Presenter standing by a pond looking at mating frogs and toads



   NH footage of toads laying eggs.



   Back to Presenter




   Images of a sweltering Britain



   Library archive of weather reports with suns across the whole of the UK


   Flash frames of European stories?











   Over 200 years ago,  this was the home of one of Britain's most gardeners ever!  Gilbert
   White.  Gilbert was so important because he was pretty much our first ever naturalist.  He
   spent hours observing the plants and animals around his home.  In the church up the road
   where he was curate,    there are stained glass windows commemorating his life.


   Whilst others were polluting the countryside and destroying woodland,  Gilbert was
   fascinated by it.  He took detailed records of all the bird life around,  all the mammals
   and even the amphibians.  Yet he was more important than that. You see he was the first to
   observe the timing of the natural world - he was the father of ecology.  And since his
   initial interest,  this has grown into a great and vitally important topic.



   But if Gilbert was alive today,  he'd be very surprised at how nature's timings have
   changed.  In fact,  it's amazing how things have altered even in my lifetime.


   Forty years ago,  when I was growing up, I used to pick flowers of dead nettles.  They're
   beautiful aren't they,  so much so that I still enjoy picking them today.  But there's  a
   difference and not just in my age!  When I was a lad,  I used to hunt for these flowers in
   March.  Yet here I am sitting amongst them and it's the end of January.


   And they're not alone -  Poppies are coming in to bloom three weeks earlier then they did
   in the 1960s.


   This trend is not just restricted to flowers.  Trees also seem to be in a rush.


   Oak trees are leafing 10 days earlier than they did when I was growing up.  Traditionally,
   oak and ash have been fairly equal in their quest to leaf first. This led to an old
   Lincolnshire saying which was used to predict summer rainfall:


   It was said: "If the oak is before the ash, we're in for a splash. If the ash is before the
   oak, we're in for a soak."  But these days,  not many people use the saying at all.


   This shift in leafing date has had profound knock-on effects.  Now that the oak is winning
   the race to sprout leaves first and capture the largest share of sunlight,  ash trees are
   being out-competed.  As a result, the biological make-up of Britain's woodlands is
   changing.  This in turn has severe implications for other wildlife that depends on the
   ash.  For instance,  there are 68 species of insects that live on ash trees.  So the early
   flowering of oak will disrupt food chains,  food webs and ultimately entire eco-systems.


   But it's not just plants that are out of kilter.  There's animal evidence too.  Take these
   frogs.  They are their warty cousins,  toads,  are laying their eggs 10 days earlier than
   30 years ago.


   So what does this all mean?  Britain is warming up.   And if you don't believe the natural
   evidence what do the scientists say?


   Well meteorologists tell us that the 10 warmest years in the last 100 have all been since
   1980 and the 3 warmest years in the past 600 have been post 1990.  And this trend is not
   restricted to Britain - across Europe,  glaciers are retreating fast,  cicadas are singing
   in the Baltic and summers are getting hotter.


   3.  OUR HOT PAST


   Presenter leaving Gilbert White's garden and walking towards the church (up the famous
   zig-zag path)


   Jib arm reveals church in background





   Details of church







   Cut to presenter in church grounds









   Details of the Church





   Stained glass detail





   Presenter walking through church grounds.


   Graphics create an element of warmth before vineyards and olive trees  and exotic fruit
   trees appear.  Presenter picks some.













   Shots of wine factory with bottles with British labels  (e.g. Birmingham Sauvignon Blanc)
   on it







   So,  there is no doubt,  global warming is happening.  But is this a problem?



   Britain's climate has changed incredibly in the recent past as our planet's orbit round the
   sun has changed ever so slightly.  So frequent have these climate shifts been that looking
   back at Britain's climate over the last 2 million years,  the only constant thing has been
   change.  We've been gripped by ice ages as harsh an environment as Antarctica today.  Yet
   we have also been warmer than today and there seems to have been no bad side-effects.


   Around 1000 years ago Britain entered a period of extremely warm weather known as the
   Climatic Optimum.  This was a time of long summers,  short winters and bumper harvests!
   Some people became so rich through selling farm produce that they could build buildings
   like this church - St Mary's - the very church that centuries later Gilbert White was to be
   curate of.


   The intricate details of the carvings show that this 'Climatic Optimum' church was a costly
   piece of work.


   And the bumper harvests were not always what you might expect.  Nearby stained glass
   windows show that vineyards were a common feature of the landscape.


   So might the same happen again?





   If all global warming is going to do is allow us to grow olives and peaches,  harvest giant
   root vegetables  and make wine whilst sunbathing in a Mediterranean-like climate,  then
   shouldn't we all be celebrating?  Just think,  after lunch in the sun,  we'd all be allowed
   to siesta for a couple of hours before going back to work.  Then we'd party into the night
   sipping the local vino and whilst eating the local olives and sun-dried tomatoes.


   Maybe British wine will become world famous


   4.  OUR WILDLIFE FEELS THE HEAT



   Double doors to Church are flung open and Presenter with parasol steps out into the
   sweltering sunshine.




   Graphics change the background to one where everything is dry,  dusty and dying.





   Beech tree woodland



   Graphics of beech,  birch and spruce dying in the heat.


   Top of Ben Nevis with beech trees on





   Squirrels,  deer and badgers eating beech tree nuts.  Graphics fade out beech tree leaving
   animals looking forlorn!




   WHAT WILL REPLACE THEM



   Presenter in Caledonian pine forest










   Ptarmigans,  snow buntings,  arctic hares ghost out.





   Durham's bee-eaters


   Poole's egrets








   Presenter outside church - graphics unusual birds flying overhear - e.g. screeching macaws.


   Graphics of bee-eaters nesting on bank of Thames,  parakeets the same and vultures nesting
   on St Paul's cathedral


   Ostriches




   Vulture feeding on heat-killed deer/badger?







   Unfortunately,  things are not that simple.  You see it looks as though temperatures are
   going to be higher even than the Climatic Optimum, and this could have very serious
   consequences.  By 2080 temperatures could have risen by a further 3.5 degrees.  Summer
   temperatures could peak at a whopping 40C.  Summers would become much,   much drier whilst
   milder winters will be marked by extreme rainfall.  Such changes will have massive effects
   on our wildlife.


   Beech trees,  spruce and birch for instance,  will be unable to cope with the warmer
   temperatures.  They will steadily migrate further north to keep up with the cooler climes
   that are their preference.  They might end up stuck on the high Cairngorm mountains with
   nowhere else to go.


   Plants are at the very base of the food chain - ultimately it is plants that fuel entire
   eco-systems.  Without certain species,  animals will suffer.  Beech tree nuts are an
   important food source for many animals - a whole host of birds,  and mammals too -
   squirrels,  deer and even badgers depends on these seeds.  Without them,  they will really
   suffer.


   RESEARCH - WHAT WILL REPLACE THEM


   Today in Britain we have a number of species which are literally remnants of the ice-age.
   Like Caledonian pine.  At one point around 12,000 years ago,  this species covered great
   areas of Britain.  Today it holds on in only a handful of locations.  Despite intensive
   replanting programmes,   global warming will cause this wonderful species to become extinct
   in our country.


   And are other ice-age remnants - the ptarmigans,  snow bunting and Arctic hare may also
   finally lose their grip.


   As the ptarmigans and snow buntings disappear,  a whole host of new birds will move in.
   This is already happening in parts of Britain.  In May 2002,  bee-eaters were seen nesting
   near Durham - the first time this has ever happened in Britain.  And in Poole Harbour in
   Dorset there have been resident little egrets for a number of years.  These yellow-footed
   herons used to be restricted to the tropics,  but now they crop up all over parts of
   southern England.


   If temperatures continue to rise then more exotic birds will move in.



   We'll have bee-eaters nesting on the banks of the Thames and more parakeets screeching
   around.  There'll be crowned cranes dancing and maybe even ostriches roaming our fields.


   We could even get vultures circling overhead - certainly there would be a lot for them to
   feed on as many of our mammals would over-heat during the summers.


   5.  OUR KNOTTED FOREST


   Brief stylised montage of animal invaders which are today very successful - grey
   squirrels,  mink,  American signal crayfish,  the Chinese Mitten crab,  the sika deer and
   the pigeon,  etc.








   Presenter crawling through extremely dense - almost impenetrable  vegetation:





   Graphics pull out to very high altitude to show that Presenter is in Wales.


   Crash back in to aerials of 'knotweed forest'











   Time/lapse (to music) of - both outdoors and through roads.




   Presenter walks into shed


   Possible flash frame of library footage of Presenter talking about ornamental knotweeds on
   Gardener's World.











   T/L of knotweed growing into shed culminating in shed explosion!


   Graphics of knotweed growing even faster and spreading across the whole of Britain -
   including over its roads and cities.


   Cut aways of seeds blowing across UK



   Graphics of famous landmarks becoming overrun with knotweed - e.g. Stone Henge,  the Angel
   of the North,  Cheddar Gorge,  St.  Abbas Giant,  Tintun Abbey.


   Aerials of London as all green areas turn to knotweed.



   Graphics as M1 turns to knotweed.  And Heathrow too.



   Knotweed office representation





   Global warming,  then,  will provide the opportunity for new species to invade Britain,
   replacing our natives.  Invading species aren't new.  There have been immigrant plants and
   animals arriving on our shores since Neolithic times - grey squirrels and mink are two of
   the most famous examples.  But global warming could change an old invader in a very
   dangerous way indeed.



   With vegetation as dense as this you might think that I'm in the Amazon!  It's so thick
   that it is almost impossible for me to move.  But I'm not deep in the heart of the jungle,
   I'm just outside Swansea!




   In this part of Wales,  Japanese knotweed thrives.  It spreads incredibly fast and soon
   forms massive aggregations - some over 25,000 square metres - where it simply chokes all
   other plants to death..


   It was introduced from Asia to Europe Asia in the mid nineteenth century as an ornamental
   and fodder plant.  But it spread and it did so because it has such an extraordinary growth
   rate.


   And it can even grow up through roads and into buildings.  It causes such a problem now
   that you can actually be prosecuted for helping it spread.


   Given the vast swathes of land that it covers,  what is most amazing is that it is sterile
   - it only spreads  vegetatively..  You see,  it is a dioecious plant which means that you
   need male and female plants for sexual reproduction to occur, yet in Britain and Europe we
   only have female plants.  However,  the real risk with knotweed is that it will somehow
   hybridise with another plant and then reproduce sexually.  In the past,  I've encouraged
   people to plant other exotic knotweeds in their gardens and these are exactly the
   candidates that could hybridise.  And global warming will increase that likelihood so I'm
   going to dig mine up now!


   Areas that are already desolate except for knotweed would begin to expand and expand and at
   an alarming rate.


   But the problems would not end there.  Knotweed seeds would be blown up across the whole of
   the British Isles and wherever they germinated,  it would not be long before knotweed
   thrived.  In fact,  knotweed would grow everywhere.





   Even our cities would not be safe - all our parks would be dense thickets



   It could even cause havoc to our transport system as it employs its ability to grow through
   concrete.


   At the moment,  Swansea City Council employs the one and only 'knotweed officer' in the
   country.  Maybe - because of climate change he will need lead a team of millions!


   6. THE LANDSCAPE CHANGING BEETLE


   Presenter walking through the National Forest














   Presenter fumbles in his pocket and brings out mounted beetle specimens.






   NH footage of Asian long-horn beetle life-cycle with sync intercut










   Graphics of familiar forests becoming stands of dead trees.


   Street trees die out.


   Famous trees die out too - like the Royal Mile near Buckingham Palace,  Windsor Great
   Park,  trees at Lord Cricket Ground,  churchyards,  etc.


   Mobile phone tree masts are all that remain!




   Knotweed begins to creep up the mobile mast.





   Global warming will also allow new invaders to colonise warmer Britain.  This combined with
   the massive increase in global travel and trade means that invading species will increase.
   And there is an animal which is capable of changing the landscape as much as a fertile
   Japanese knotweed could   At the moment Britain is too cold for it,  but if things change,
   the National Forest where 30 million trees have been planted could be particularly
   vulnerable.  So what is the culprit?  Well I have one just with me.


   It's the Asian longhorn beetle.  Originally from China it has smuggled its way around the
   world bored into wooden crates.  Once it arrives,  it climbs out and has massive effects on
   the landscape. How? It kills trees.  Females will chew through tree bark with their massive
   jaws to lay 60 or so eggs.


   Once these hatch the larvae do the damage by boring deep into the wood which will
   eventually kill the tree.  It is not fussy which trees it goes for.  So far it has not
   reached Britain,  but if it along with other pests - like the 8-toothed spruce bark beetle
   or diseases such as the mysterious sudden oak death do reach Britain,  their effects could
   be catastrophic.


   Our trees would be lost.










   But we would not become a treeless country.  Those mobile phone tree masts would certainly
   be impervious!!


   And knotweed forests would grow so fast that they would not be threatened.  Soon they'd be
   clambering over the mobile phone masts!


   7.  LIFE FOR US WOULD BE TOUGH


   Back to Presenter at Church:







   Graphics of vineyards again.  This time they wilt.


   Time/lapse of wilting crops



   Graphics of plagues of locusts going though British farms.




   Presenter on Church tower looking over bushfires



   Details of fires


   Graphics of forest fires  - including material shot from satellites



   Graphics of people going about their daily business as places nearby burn.



   Presenter back on church tower - the ground begins to crack up and the church begins to
   crumble.  Presenter wobbles?


   Famous buildings in London collapse.





   So global warming will change our plants,  it will change our animals and it could pave the
   way for new invaders which could have devastating effects on our landscape.  But the
   problems would not end there. Life in the extra hot Britain would be tough.


   Long summer droughts would mean that crops would fail repeatedly - even vineyards and
   sunflowers!  If vineyards can't cope than wheat and barley,  potatoes and sugar beet will
   have no chance!


   We will develop drought resistant crops but they won't be able to cope with a new threat -
   locusts!



   Long summer droughts will also mean that, like today in Australia,  bush fires are a common
   occurrence.


   Forest fires cause billions of pounds worth of damage every year in the States and in
   Australia - we too could see fires burning over massive areas - so large that they can even
   be seen from space.


   Like residents of Sydney,  we would have to get used to them....



   Clay,  the very material that London,  Bristol and other great urban areas are built on
   will begin to dry and crack.  This could be so severe that houses could start to crumble.



   8.  THE HEAT BRINGS EXTREMES


   Presenter in church grounds with everything normal again until off-camera rain machine
   begins drowning him in water:



   Shots of heavy rain,  and archive of floods over Britain





   Back to Presenter,  rain stops but lo and behold an off camera wind machine kicks in!



   Archive of hurricanes.



   Graphics of fallen trees all over Britain.  Knotweed remains unaffected.


   Violently rough seas


   Bulldozers working shale beaches (Martin Smith).


   Graphics has huge wave coming over the wall.




   But it's not going to be one long summer for us.  Outside of the summer droughts, Britain
   will experience greater extremes of weather.  Winters could be very wet indeed - prompting
   great flooding over much of the country - worse than anything we have seen over recent
   years!





   Moreover,  it seems likely that we will also have much greater wind storms - both tornadoes
   and if Britain's seas get really warmer - hurricanes too could become more common!



   Trees will be blown down all across the UK




   And our seas could experience some of the roughest weather around.  We will have to improve
   our sea defences to cope with these great swells of the future.  Bulldozing shale will not
   be good enough.



   9.  THE GREAT MELT TAKE 2


   Presenter in the cairngorms,  skiing towards camera.  He parallel stops in front of camera
   and pulls up his goggles.






   Presenter skis off.  Mix to grass skiing tournament in France.







   Melting icicles leads torrents flowing which eventually leads to Graphics map of sea-level
   rise (mostly pinched from programme 3 - except the higher sea level rise).


   Crash zoom into various locations - e.g. Water gushing down Channel Tunnel,  Thames Barrier
   overwhelmed,  etc (could use archive flood news footage).





   Graphics of new coastline with submerged Britain


   Presenter on top of Church tower again.  As he talks water fills up everything except the
   last bit of the tower.





   Graphics of new outline of Britain




   Yorkshire Moors becomes metropolis






   Graphics of University Boat Race as they row past towers only.  Seals and whales are
   nearby.  They row past a jetty with submarine tours.  Follow underwater to see tour of
   submerged London.



   Graphics of Canary wharf being a new bird rock.







   Today millions of us enjoy skiing all over the world,  and Scotland certainly has some
   great pistes to offer.  But we better had make the most of it since pretty soon there might
   be no snow.



   Global warming will certainly jeopardise the skiing industry since snow and glaciers will
   melt fast.  Fortunately,  for those of us who enjoy hurtling down mountains at breakneck
   speed,  ski manufacturers are already designing grass skis for our enjoyment!


   But it is not just ice on the mountain tops which will thaw,  ice in the Arctic may melt
   too which could have devastating effects.


   Trillions of gallons of water which had been locked up as ice will be released into the
   world's oceans.  The sea levels could rise by nearly 1 metre.  This will be devastating for
   Britain.  Once the Thames Barrier is overcome, Soho will be flooded within a matter of
   minutes.  Water will pour down the Channel Tunnel.  The new outline of Britain shows how
   many areas will be affected.



   But things could be even worse that this.  There is evidence that the currently stable ice
   sheet in Antarctica has melted in the past.  If this begins to melt then global sea levels
   could rise by a devastating 60 metres!


   This would change our country immensely.  Britain's new outline would be unrecognisable.


   It would disrupt everything - there'd be no London,  no Manchester,  no Edinburgh,  no
   Bristol.  Instead there'd be thriving commercial centres on are uplands.  Certainly where I
   grew up on Ilkley Moor,  things would be very different.


   No doubt those hardy Oxbridge rowers would still try to keep up their traditions.


   And entrepreneurs would lead tours around a submerged London



   The spires and towers which stuck out of the water would not be deserted,  they would soon
   become home to a multitude of birds.  Like Bass Rock,  Canary wharf could become a vast
   gannetry.  And in the new hotter temperatures it might even be canaries which roost there!



   10.  THE FUTURE'S COLD



   Double doors of the Church swing open again to reveal Presenter,  dressed as before.









   It starts to snow.



   Graphics of Arctic melting and graphics of gulf stream stopping.









   Presenter back in snowy scene.  Sync could be done this winter in Scotland?






   Images from Churchill



   Polar bears trundle past.



   Presenter in London,  standing by the side of the Thames








   Graphics of Thames freezing over.  Presenter climbs down onto jetty and 'walks across
   frozen Thames'.



   Cut-aways of appropriate images.












   Snow-ploughs going along roads





   Country houses become blanketed in snow.




   Graphics of trees and woods dying in the snow


   Red fox scavenging in the snow


   Presenter in Caledonian Pine forest in snow.  Graphics cause it to grow to the horizon.









   But skiers and snowboarders needn't hang up their boots just yet and dive enthusiasts
   should not open shops in London.  For there is another scenario associated with global
   warming that would prevent this wholesale warming and flooding,  but would have just as
   pronounced affects on our landscape and natural history.  Perversely,  global warming could
   actually make Britain colder.


   As temperatures continue to increase the Arctic ice sheets will melt.  But in doing so a
   massive amount of cold water will be released into the northern Atlantic.  This cold water
   will completely disrupt the ocean currents, forcing the warm Gulf Stream current further
   south or even halt its flow altogether.  Ominously, this great current has  decreased by
   20% off northern Scotland since 1950,  suggesting the driving force behind the Gulf Stream
   flow is already in decline.


   It is impossible to underestimate the value of the Gulf Stream- in fact it provides us with
   as third as much energy as the sun!  Without it we would have a climate similar to other
   places on Britain's latitude like Churchill in Canada.


   Churchill is very cold indeed.  The average temperature in January is minus 28 degrees
   Celsius,  in June a mere 12.  In fact the yearly average is an incredible minus 7!  Clearly
   it's a hit with polar bears.


   But again,  do we need to worry since we've been colder in the past too.  And I'm not
   talking ice-ages here,  but colder periods that have lasted a couple of hundred years.  In
   fact when the climatic Optimum was over,  it was soon replaced by the Little Ice Age.
   Winters- such as that of 1739 were so severe that the Thames froze over.




   Vast ice fairs were set up on the frozen river.  Booths selling the likes of brandy balls,
   ginger breads, black puddings, plum cakes, pancakes and glasses of hot ale with spices and
   wine.  Printing presses were popular too, selling certificates and poems commemorating the
   novelty of printing on the Thames.   But it wasn't all fun.  IN February of that year it's
   estimated that over 20,000 people in London were killed by the cold.  (CHECK)


   How would the rest of Britain fair if the Gulf Stream stopped?


   Our roads would regularly be blocked by vast winter snow drifts - we would need to increase
   the number of snow ploughs by ten fold at least.


   More people would move to the cities for their artificially raised temperatures.


   And what of our animals?  Nearly all the plants and animals that we have today are not
   adapted to the cold.  Most would die off.  The adaptable red fox would scavenge many of
   those killed.


   If Britain cooled through global warming than the Caledonian Pine Forests would in all
   likelihood greatly expand their ranges once again.  It would certainly be very different.



   11.  METEOR BRINGS DUST


   Presenter back in church grounds at night..












   Cut-aways of massive volcanic clouds of dust.





   Presenter star gazing




   Graphics of asteroid hurtling towards Earth.




   Graphics of impact in Britain



   Graphics of Dark Britain



   Back to Presenter






   Although temperatures would drop by up to 10 degrees,  this would not be like an ice-age.
   For that to happen,   there would need to be some sort of trigger.


   The coldest winter in the Little Ice Age was that of 1816.  This was in fact the coldest
   single year on record in many places in Europe and North America.


   The reason being that the previous year a massive volcanic eruption in Indonesia had thrown
   vast plumes of smoke and dust into the sky reducing the warming effect of the sun.
   Alarmingly this could happen again,  not with a volcano, but a meteor.


   On March 16,  2880 an asteroid 3,300 feet in diameter, weighing over one billion tonnes
   could crash into our planet.


   It is travelling at a speed around 9.5 miles per second.  If it does hit our planet,  the
   energy released could be as much as 44,800 megatons of TNT.  If it impacts on land it will
   create a crater around 14 miles in diameter, with a blast radius of intense damage of
   around 190 miles.  Massive dust clouds would be thrown up and Britain would be plunged into
   darkness for years.


   This vast dust cloud and the dent in the world's orbit could be enough to swing the balance
   and send us into a real ice-age.....


   12.  THE NEXT ICE-AGE



   Graphics of Britain becoming frozen over.  New Ice age then carves Britain - familiar
   landmarks are obliterated - e.g. Angel of the North,  Blackpool tower,  Alton towers,  The
   London Eye,  etc.



   Graphics of the appropriate sea level changes (from Programme 3).


   Polar bears,  Arctic foxes,  musk ox walking across ice sheet with famous landmarks
   sticking out in the background.


   Presenter with reindeer in snow





   Graphics of mammoths walking through Britain.





   If this occurred then Britain would be changed forever.  The powerful ice sheets and
   glaciers would completely recarve our landscape.  Certainly nothing that we have built
   would be immune.


   And our coastline would change immeasurably since global sea levels would fall and fall.
   Once again we would be joined to the continent and new animals would venture onto our
   shores.



   Reindeer would once again thrive in Britain.  Those people brave enough to stay rather than
   head south,  would probably end up farming them.


   And who knows,  by then scientists may even have developed the technology to re-create
   mammoths from their DNA trapped in frozen specimens.  Maybe they too would grace our shores
   once again.


   13.  THE LONG TERM OUTLOOK


   Presenter walking along Ilkley Moor on a summer's day


   Flash frames of asteroid,  tidal wave,  female Alan







   Short section with some of the most dramatic graphics sequences of mountain
   building/volcanoes/floods from other programmes.



   Short section on the most beautiful landscapes of modern Britain (pinched from other
   programmes)



   Back to Presenter:


   Aerials away





   Much of this programme has been speculation - no one can know for sure what the future
   holds for Britain.  But global warming is a fact,  it is happening.  What is debatable is
   how much of it is down to us and what its effects will be.  An asteroid will hit our planet
   at some point and massive tidal waves could also strike Britain.  Mystery pollutants could
   even turn us all female.


   Ilkley Moor is where I grew up and it is also the place I started my journey of discovery
   of the history of the British landscape.  In this series,  I've learned a great deal about
   our past and the over-riding message is that an examination of our ancient past tells us
   that the planet and this small piece of land that comprises Great Britain always has and
   always will be in a state of constant change.  Maybe global warming is simply the next
   change that has arisen sooner because of our activities.  Whether we can do anything about
   it remains to be seen since from our incredible history we should remember that there are
   forces infinitely more powerful than ourselves operating on the planet - the forces of
   nature.






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