cc: "Quinn, Rachel" <Rachel.Quinn@royalsoc.ac.uk>
date: Tue, 25 Sep 2001 15:36:10 +0100
from: "Goulden, Marisa" <marisa.goulden@royalsoc.ac.uk>
subject: RS climate change meeting, comments on sessions 2 & 3
to: "'tsb1@econ.cam.ac.uk'" <tsb1@econ.cam.ac.uk>,  "'tom.downing@eci.ox.ac.uk'" <tom.downing@eci.ox.ac.uk>,  "'djgriggs@meto.gov.uk'" <djgriggs@meto.gov.uk>,  "'michael.grubb@ic.ac.uk'" <michael.grubb@ic.ac.uk>,  "'b.j.hoskins@reading.ac.uk'" <b.j.hoskins@reading.ac.uk>,  "'jthoughton@ipccwg1.demon.co.uk'" <jthoughton@ipccwg1.demon.co.uk>,  "'m.hulme@uea.ac.uk'" <m.hulme@uea.ac.uk>, "'jcrh@mssl.ucl.ac.uk'" <jcrh@mssl.ucl.ac.uk>, "'martin.parry@uea.ac.uk'" <martin.parry@uea.ac.uk>

Dear all,
Below are some comments on topics in session 2 (Emissions Scenarios), from
Laurie Michaelis,  and session 3 (impacts and adaptation), from David
Warrilow (DEFRA). Please send any comments to me to pass on to the session
co-ordinators.
Many thanks
Marisa

- Comment from Laurie Michaelis (speaker on Emissions Scenarios in session
2):

I would be very happy to accept your invitation to speak at this
meeting.  I do have some hesitations looking at the agenda, though.  In
the SRES and the TAR we tried, perhaps not very successfully, to move
away from the idea that forecasts were desirable or possible. 
Regardless of whether the science permits forecasts of climate change
based on specific emission trajectories, I believe that society is
fundamentally unpredictable because it is a complex system full of
positive feedback mechanisms.  It is not clear to me whether you are
setting up the meeting to be able to have a discussion along these
lines.

A second issue relates to the way we conceptualise society and the
implications for mitigation options.  It is true that the outline of the
TAR WG3 report followed the thinking of the SAR, with its emphasis in
WG2 on technical, economic and market potentials and in WG3 on
macroeconomic responses.  But Chapters 1 and 5 of the TAR, at least,
questioned this framework, emphasising the role of social, cultural and
institutional factors in shaping GHG emissions.  These issues will
hopefully be taken up more thoughtfully in the proposed Special Report
on Climate Change and Sustainable Development.  I think it would help if
the meeting provided opportunities for them to be raised.


- Comments from Stakeholder: David Warrilow (DEFRA), on Session 3 on impacts
and adaptation:

Some more in depth discussion of the issues and challenges which are
currently limiting the value of impacts assessments would be beneficial.
These issues really cover how to undertake more realistic impacts
assessments, including:
1. better representation of extremes and inclusion of these in assessments
2. assessments of thresholds
3. assessment of multiple and indirect impacts (and alongside other
non-climatic stresses)
4. development of costings methodologies for valuation of (aggregate)
impacts and adaptation options
5. improvement of tools, e.g. risk analysis, and communication of
uncertainty (although this is covered in Session 7).


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