date: Wed May 24 14:48:23 2006
from: Keith Briffa <k.briffa@uea.ac.uk>
subject: Re: BP briefing
to: peter.stott@metoffice.gov.uk

   Peter
   I will chat to Tim about this - we have a versions of these that are not identical and so
   could be shown . Will get back to you soon
   Keith
   At 14:05 24/05/2006, you wrote:

     Dear Tim and Keith
     I have to give a presentation to senior BP Executives next Wednesday
     (list is
     Steven E. Koonin Chief Scientist
     Joseph P. Merlini, Director Strategic Cooperation
     Chris J. Mottershead, Distinguished Advisor, Energy  & the Environment
     John K. Wells, Vice President Environment
     Duncan G.M. Eggar, Senior Business Advisor & Team Leader -Sustainable
     Mobility)
     answering amongst other questions the following question
     "Many papers published in the past few years show that the MBH record
     very likely under-estimates temperature variability over the past 1500
     years.  Presumably the GCMs were able to reproduce (or were tuned to)
     the low MBH variability.  How do they have to be modified to reproduce
     the greater variability? What implications does that have for
     attribution and predictions going forward?"
     Figures 6.10 and Fig 6.13 of the IPCC AR4 would be useful but of course
     they are still under wraps. Alternatively the latest equivalent I have
     is from Mann et al, EOS, 84, 256-258, 2003 but this does not include
     series like Moberg 2005. Do you know whether there is a more recent
     equivalent published like Fig 6.10 and 6.13 ?
     Many thanks for any help or pointers,
     Peter
     -- ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
      Dr. Peter Stott   Climate Scientist   Met Office
      Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research (Reading Unit)
      Meteorology Building,  University of Reading, Reading RG6 6BB
      Tel: +44 (0)118 378 5613   Fax: +44 (0)118 378 5615
      Mobile: 07753880683
      E-mail:peter.stott@metoffice.gov.uk   [1]http://www.metoffice.gov.uk
      NOTE WILL ALSO BE AT EXETER PART OF EACH WEEK
     ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

   --
   Professor Keith Briffa,
   Climatic Research Unit
   University of East Anglia
   Norwich, NR4 7TJ, U.K.

   Phone: +44-1603-593909
   Fax: +44-1603-507784
   [2]http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/cru/people/briffa/

