cc: ses@bnl.gov
date: Mon, 1 Jul 1996 08:34:03 -0400
from: ses@bnl.gov (stephen e. schwartz)
subject: AGU FALL 96: CLIMATE CHANGE
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To: Climate Researchers

From: Steve Schwartz and Tamara Ledley for the AGU Committee on Global
Environmental Change

Subject: AGU Union Session, Fall 96 Meeting, Detection of Climate Change
and Attribution to Causes

This is to give early notice of a Union Session at the Fall AGU Meeting on
Detection of Climate Change and Attribution to Causes, and to invite
contributed papers.  We anticipate an exciting session of invited
presentations as well.  The announcement of the Session as it will appear
in EOS is as follows:

U08  Detection of Climate Change and Attribution to Causes  (joint with A, O, H)

The perturbation of the global and annual mean thermal IR at the tropopause
due to increased concentrations of CO2 and other long-lived greenhouse
gases over the industrial period is 2 to 3 W m-2, less than one percent of
the average downwelling longwave flux at the surface.  Climate model
calculations indicate a resultant equilibrium increase in global mean
temperature of 1 to 3 K, substantially more than observed.  Other climate
forcing agents acting over the same period, such as anthropogenic aerosols
and change in solar luminosity may also contribute to climate change,
confounding detection of a greenhouse warming signal.  Papers are solicited
on observational, theoretical, and modeling aspects of climate change, with
emphasis on detection and on attribution to forcing agents.

Conveners: Stephen E. Schwartz, Brookhaven National Laboratory, Bldg. 426,
Upton NY 11973; tel. 516-344-3100; fax: 516-344-2887; email: ses@bnl.gov.,
Tamara Ledley, Rice Univ., Dept. Space Physics & Astronomy, POB 1892,
Houston TX 77251; tel. 713-527-8101-3594; fax 713-285-5143; email:
LEDLEY@alfven.rice.edu.  This session is organized under the auspices of
the AGU Committee on Global Environmental Change.

The 1996 AGU Fall Meeting will take place in San Francisco December 15-19,
1996.  The meeting announcement and information regarding abstract
preparation are given in the May 21 issue of EOS.  See also
http://www.agu.org/fm96top.html

Although the absolute and firm deadline for receipt of abstracts by AGU is
not till September 11, for planning purposes we would appreciate early
indication of intent to present a paper.  We would also appreciate a copy
of submitted abstracts by email or fax to Schwartz and Ledley.



