cc: Peter Lemke <plemke@awi-bremerhaven.de>
date: Wed Aug 10 16:03:33 2005
from: Phil Jones <p.jones@uea.ac.uk>
subject: Re: 
to: Georg Kaser <Georg.Kaser@uibk.ac.at>, Kevin Trenberth <trenbert@ucar.edu>

    Georg,
        Send us a revised bullet point and we'll modify it into better
    English. Do bear in mind we are only talking about a few
    sentences and this is still the FOD. Hopefully you can
    get this to us tomorrow.
       Maybe we just need to be a little more specific about
    regions. I just used Kilimanjaro as an example, as it had
    received, I felt, more attention in the media. Apart from
    hearing about it from Lonnie, I did see it on a BBC
    news item once. Few people know that there are
    any glaciers in Irian Jaya.
    Cheers
    Phil
   At 14:24 10/08/2005, Georg Kaser wrote:

     Kevin,
     Have many thanks for compiling and editing 3.9. I agree that the "radiatively forced"
     and the "amplified hydrological cycle" should be removed and I also agree with Phil's
     comment on the "local heat budget". In glaciology, the sum of each energy flux toward
     and from the respective snow/ice surface is considered to make up the "local heat
     budget". This also includes the sensible heat flux.
     There are some other points in the text which I would like to comment:
     1. Tropical glaciers are considered those in the South American Andes between Venezuela
     and Norhern Boliva, those in East Africa and those in Irian Jaya (New Guinea). In
     Chapter 4, Tibetean glaiers are taken as part of the Asian High Mountains (find the
     present state Chapter 4.5. "Glaciers and Ice Caps attached).
     2. Alaska, Patagonia, Karakoram, Norway and NZ cannot be merged in the respective
     statement. In Alaska and Patagonia, moderately increase accumulation is accompanied by
     strongly enhanced ablation making the mass balances markedly negative. From
     glaciological site, no studies concerning atmospheric circulation patterns are provided
     in the respective studies.
     In the Karakoram mountains, enhanced accumulation has led to considerable glacier
     advances, increased winter accumulation from the Westerlies is only suggested but not
     subject of detailed studies. Heavy debris loads on the tongues probably prevent from
     enhanced abaltion.
     In Southwest Norway and NZ South Island, glaciers advances have ceded around 2000. I
     don't know whether their advances shall still be mentioned in extension; I would not do
     so beyond the respective statement in Ch. 4.5.
     3. "If continued, some may disappear within the next 30 years." This sentence can stand
     for every mountain region in the world and should not be used for tropical mountains
     only. Everywhere, many small glaciers have disappeared since the 19th Century maxima and
     many will disappear soon in the Alps, the Caucasus, in the Asian High mountains etc. as
     well as in the Tropics. From the today's perspective Mount Kenya, all Mountains in the
     Rwenzori Range except Mt. Stanley, Irain Jaya will be without glaciers soon, probably
     sooner than Kilimanjaro; well known and studied glaciers in the Andes like Chacaltaya,
     Charquini and Pastoruri will also disappear soon. This is not because of a particular
     regional climate feature but just because they were already small when retreats started.
     As you will see from Figure 4.5.5. Kilimanjaro's plateau ice is particular, slope
     glaciers are less. The plateau glaciers retreat from their vertical walls where no
     accumulation is possible and since they do so, there is no way to find an equilibrium
     besides disappearance. The vertical walls are a result of cold temperatures high
     sublimation and strong solar radiance. There is no way to replace the retreat by ice
     dynamics on the flat summit plateau. Slope glaciers are only partially subject of this
     kind of ablation and their retreat rate seems to have slowed markedly (See insert of Fig
     4.5.5). If Kilimanjaro is mentioned in 3.9. it must also be added that it is a
     particular case with complex relation to climate change.
     4. All studies which investigate tropical glacier retreat and climate show the dominance
     of changes in energy and mass balance terms which are related to the atmospheric
     moisture content rather than locally measured air temperatures. Both increased and
     reduced moisture can lead to negative mass balances and it has done so in most cases
     studied (Cordillera Blanca, Peru, Cordillera Real, Bolivia, Antisana, Ecuador, Rwenzori,
     Mt. Kenia, Kilimanjaro). Yet, wherever respective analyses were made, correlations were
     found to anomalies in ENSO or Indian Oceans Indian Ocean Dipole Mode respectively
     strongly indicating global warming as the principle reason of th eretreat.
     I give you this lengthy explanation in order to make sure that the very compressed and
     condensed bullet in 3.9. gets the right content. I have started to change your paragraph
     suggestion accordingly but have to admit that, not being a native speaker myself, it
     either becomes very long or very awkward.
     I also appreciate Phil's statement about Quelccaya and Sajama. Doug Hardy and Ray
     Bradley run AWS' there since a couple of years as well as on Kilimanjaro with all the
     problems of recording data at such high elevation sites. Doug is preparing a paper on
     the climate records there but it has still not reached it's final state.
     Information on sublimation on Quelccaya is not published such as the positive mass
     balances and advances on several Andean glaciers between 1998 and 2002 are not
     published. Kilimanjaro has experienced both ablation as well as accumulation layers on
     the horizontal surfaces over the last years. I have just come back from fieldwork there
     last week and the last half year was a mass loss year. Being very much involved into
     tropical glaciers myself, I have to accept that such detailed information would be
     available for several hundreds of glaciers in the world each one providing 10 or more
     publications. Going into such details cannot be the aim of the report, I am afraid.
     Best wishes,
     Georg
     Georg Kaser
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   Prof. Phil Jones
   Climatic Research Unit        Telephone +44 (0) 1603 592090
   School of Environmental Sciences    Fax +44 (0) 1603 507784
   University of East Anglia
   Norwich                          Email    p.jones@uea.ac.uk
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