date: Tue, 5 Feb 2002 11:32:28 -0000
from: "Simon Torok" <s.torok@uea.ac.uk>
subject: Draft reply to emma
to: "mike" <m.hulme@uea.ac.uk>

To: e.hedderwick@nmsi.ac.uk

Dear Emma,

Apologies for my late reply but I hope you can incorporate my suggestions
into the panel text.

In general, I should point out that I am not entirely comfortable with the
sensationalist language used. I would state things differently, but I do
understand that the role of this text is to draw people in with striking
comments.

The one part of text that I feel is too sensational is under 'How will
climate change affect the world'. Antenna states that six billion people are
at mortal risk: this is certainly not the case. While a percentage of the
world's population will be in danger, it is not 100% of the population. In
addition, this implies that there will be no positive impacts.

This leads to my next point: that the panel text does not mention that some
people (and countries) may experience benefits as a result of climate
change. I think this needs to be mentioned somewhere as it is one of the
reasons that the problem of taking action is so difficult to solve.

I would also like to see the SOC Ocean Mooring quote changed: it implies
that there is a 50/50 chance of being either hot or cold in Britain as a
result of climate change. Warmer weather is pretty much guaranteed here: it
is certainly highly unlikely to cool down in Britain over the next 100
years. To discuss cooling gives the wrong message.

I feel that opening the panel with a comment like 'You can't escape it' is
also the wrong message. I don't know what punchy line you could use, but the
message should be that we can influence the climate, that if we get involved
our actions can make a difference, and that we need to do something about it
to avoid the most dangerous consequences of climate change.

Finally, I would like to agree with Simon Torok's comments sent to you
already, to emphasise the points he has raised. In particular, I feel a
mention of surprises in the system needs to be made to highlight the
high-risk nature of playing with a complex system that we do not completely
understand, which could lead to large changes that we cannot predict.

Yours sincerely,

Mike.

