cc: Mike Hulme <m.hulme@uea.ac.uk>
date: Fri, 14 Nov 2003 16:25:48 +0000
from: Tim Mitchell <t.mitchell@uea.ac.uk>
subject: Droughts paper
to: Sari Kovats <Sari.Kovats@lshtm.ac.uk>

Sari,

Regional information on regions at risk

Sahel:
This is critically dependent on the extent to which the West African
Monsoonal rains penetrate inland. Changes in patterns of rainfall
distribution (inland v coastal) may be critical and are hard to predict. The
models do not show a consistent sign in the region of interest (TAR WGI Fig
10.6, Box 10.1 Fig 2).

Southern Africa:
The source of rain depends on the area concerned, since the land lies at the
meeting point of oceans. Most rain is during summer (DJF), for which the
models do not show a consistent sign in the region of interest (TAR WGI Fig
10.6, Box 10.1 Fig 2).

India:
The Southern Asian Monsoon dominates of course. Monsoonal changes are
difficult to predict without a firmer grasp of (a) how the monsoon is
connected to El Nino and (b) how El Nino will change. However, the models
consistently suggest a small increase in precipitation (TAR WGI Fig 10.6,
Box 10.1 Fig 2). The distribution of any change will, of course, be
critical.

This may not be relevant, but on the other hand, you might be interested in:
http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/~timm/movies/index.html

Regards
Tim
_____________________________________
Dr. Tim Mitchell
Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research

email: t.mitchell@uea.ac.uk
web: http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/~timm/
phone: +44 (0)1603 59 1378 = CHANGED JULY
fax: +44 (0)1603 59 3901
post: Tyndall, ENV, UEA, Norwich, NR4 7TJ, UK
_____________________________________

