date: Fri, 17 Mar 2000 10:32:27 +0000
from: "Noguer, Maria" <mnoguer@meto.gov.uk>
subject: Box etc...
to: 'tar10 ' <tar10@egs.uct.ac.za>

Dear all,

I have been following your discussions about the "box" and it is great to
see how each of you have expressed their sincere opinion always taking into
account the scientific integrity of what you are doing. I have realised that
all of you are concerned about the way to present the climate change
information by regions and as many of you have pointed out, it is an issue
where not all of you agree. I will try to give you my opinion, suggestion
and realistic way to proceed at this stage.

Let me first remind you that the selection of regions to present regional
climate information had already been done in IPCC90. At that time only GCM
results were available and 5 regions were chosen: Central North America,
South East Asia, Sahel, Southern Europe, Australia. Results for temperature
and precipitation were presented in the Validation Chapter (Table 4.2, pg.
116). They did not attempt to give a best estimate of all the models, they
just presented the mean for each of the models compared to observations. The
next chapter of IPCC90 showed estimated of changes in areal means of temp
and precip over those selected regions (Table 5.1, pg. 156).

Taking this as a background, it would not be the first time for IPCC to
present information by regions. Besides, the addition of the regional
Chapter in the TAR is "asking" for this kind of information. My opinion is
that some way to summarise the contents of the Chapter by selected regions
is a very good idea. Now, from all the discussions that you have been having
through Email, it is clear that there is not an easy way to do this. My
suggestion to tackle this problem is the following:

1. Realistically, it will be impossible to put something (a box? a Table? a
map?) together before the government review. At least something that all of
you would be happy with. I agree with you that this "box" is important and
it has to be properly presented or not presented at all. There are then two
options:
1.a. Present a cut down version of the "box"  with the results and regions
that all of you are happy with as a place holder for the complete box".
1.b Not to include it at this stage, work on it, and present it as a result
of the governments and experts comments. I am sure this kind of information
will be asked by the Governments and if they don't do it, Sir John will.

2. Regarding the "box" itself: 
	It has to be a summary of what is already in the Chapter. It cannot
contain information that has not been mentioned within the Chapter.
	My understanding was that the draft that Filippo and Peter put
together was only an indication of the sort of material that you might want
to include. If all the information that they put together were to be
included in the box, such a box would not be easy to read and it would loose
value. 
	Concentrate only on the "robust" results, that is, pick regions or
results where your are most confidence. Needles to say there should be a
disclaimer in bold saying "Confidence in these estimates is low!!!"....
	If the results presented in the box are just a summary of what you
have in the Chapter, as it should be, then I think including references in
the box will not be needed.

3. Logistic: If everybody is happy to try to pull all these information
together in a "box" or similar, it might be a good idea to get together in
person. I know everybody is very busy and tired of travelling, but email
sometimes is not as effective as it seems and it can lead to many
misunderstandings. Perhaps we could have a conference call sometime next
week to express our opinions on the suggested way to proceed, and perhaps to
convene a 1day meeting to construct the"box". I am happy to help you putting
together the "box" or any other kind of medium that you might choose to
convey the message of the chapter.


Please let me know if this sounds reasonable,

Regards,

Maria

PS: and thanks again for working so hard ...... 




**********************************************************************
Dr. Maria Noguer
IPCC WGI Technical Support Unit
Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research
The Met Office
London Road
Bracknell
Berkshire, RG12 2SY
UK

Tel: +44 (0) 1344 854938
Fax: +44 (0) 1344 856912
e-mail: mnoguer@meto.gov.uk
www.met-office.gov.uk
www.ipcc.ch
**********************************************************************


