cc: stefan@pik-potsdam.de
date: Fri, 17 Dec 2004 17:45:22 +0100
from: Stefan Rahmstorf <rahmstorf@pik-potsdam.de>
subject: [Wg1-ar4-ch06] contribution: draft 6.4.3.3
to: IPCC Chapter 6 <wg1-ar4-ch06@joss.ucar.edu>

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Dear friends of chapter 6,

attached is my draft for the section on "Model validation, abrupt 
climate changes", together with a figure and an EndNote reference list.

In the brevity of space it is impossible to provide a comprehensive 
review, so I have gone for the following tactics:
- some general remarks on what's special about validating abrupt 
changes, as compared to the earlier sections
- some illustrative examples: DO events (in some detail), YD event, H 
events, 8.2k event and Sahara vegetation change very briefly
- discussing the issue of whether current models somehow underestimate 
past abrupt changes as suggested by some authors.

I have proposed one figure to go with this section. The sensitive issue 
is that I am a coauthor of this work so might just be pushing my own 
barrow - hence someone else (the CLAs) need to decide whether to use 
this figure. I do think (hope) there are some objective reasons for 
selecting it, though. Firstly, it is a nice example of comparing a 
"generic" model event with a bunch of real events from ice core data. 
Secondly, using the highly praised Google Scholar engine with the key 
words "Dansgaard Oeschger Event" churns out this paper as the 3rd-most 
cited paper on this topic (90 times cited, for a paper that was 
published only in 2001), after the famous Blunier et al. and Bond et al. 
data papers.

I look forward toyour feedback on this section.

Stefan

-- 
Stefan Rahmstorf
www.ozean-klima.de
www.realclimate.org


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