cc: Eystein Jansen <eystein.jansen@geo.uib.no>, Keith Briffa <k.briffa@uea.ac.uk>, Ricardo Villalba <ricardo@lab.cricyt.edu.ar>, Jason Smerdon <jsmerdon@ldeo.columbia.edu>, t.osborn@uea.ac.uk
date: Mon, 10 Jul 2006 15:41:39 -0600
from: Jonathan Overpeck <jto@u.arizona.edu>
subject: Re: Borehole in the Southern Hemisphere
to: Henry Pollack <hpollack@umich.edu>

<x-flowed>
Hi Henry - many thanks. We can keep the southern 
Africa curves (yours and instrumental). Great, 
thanks.

I'm sorry that we're not tracking everything 
perfectly - this process involves lots of 
juggling. AND, we have to make sure we get things 
right.

Thanks again, Peck

>Hi Peck et al,
>
>Thanks for your note about the Africa borehole reconstructions, along
>with the correspondence with Jason Smerdon. In my e-mail to you on
>April 18,2006 I had indicated that the African work was unpublished.
>However, I had forgotten that the Nature paper by Huang, Pollack and
>Shen (Temperature trends over the past five centuries reconstructed
>from borehole temperatures, Nature 403, pp 756-758, 2000) actually
>showed the reconstructions for both southern Africa and Australia as
>bar graphs of century-long changes in Figure 3 of that paper. The
>figure displaying both the Africa and Australia borehole
>reconstructions that appears in the FAR draft (Figure 6.12? or was it
>6.11?) shows temperature vs. time for five centuries, a display that
>differs from the bar-graphs in the Nature paper only in format, not
>data.
>
>Inasmuch as there have been no additions to the datasets since that
>paper, it seems that we can correctly say that the reconstructions for
>southern Africa and Australia have both been published in the Nature
>(2000) paper. There is nothing "wrong" or outdated with either of those
>reconstructions. We have, in addition, a newer and more expansive paper
>about Australia alone (discussing the same reconstruction as appeared
>in the Nature paper), now in press in the Journal of Quaternary
>Science.  This paper was already mentioned in the e-mail of April 18,
>2006, which I will paste at the end of this message.
>
>Other questions?
>
>Cheers,
>Henry
>
>  ___    ___    Henry N. Pollack
>[   \  /   ]   Professor of Geophysics
>  |   \/   |    Department of Geological Sciences
>  |MICHIGAN|    University of Michigan
>[___]\/[___]   Ann Arbor, Michigan 48109-1005, U.S.A.
>
>  Phone: 734-763-0084   FAX: 734-763-4690
>  e-mail: hpollack@umich.edu
>  URL:  www.geo.lsa.umich.edu/~hpollack/
>  URL:  www-personal.umich.edu/~hpollack/book.html
>-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
>e-mail of April 18, 2006:
>
>Date:  	Tue, 18 Apr 2006 16:26:27 -0400 [04/18/2006 04:26:27 PM EDT]
>From: 	Henry Pollack <hpollack@umich.edu>Add to Address book
>(hpollack@umich.edu) United States
>To: 	Keith Briffa <k.briffa@uea.ac.uk>
>Cc: 	jto@u.arizona.edu, eystein.jansen@geo.uib.no
>Subject: 	IPCC FAR draft
>Headers: 	Show All Headers
>Hi Keith (and Peck and Eystein),
>
>I have recently been sent the current draft of the IPCC FAR by the US
>Global Change
>Research Program, asking for comments on the draft. This is the first
>time I have seen
>this product since we were feverishly exchanging e-mails in February.
>Let me call to your
>attention some small but not insignificant corrections to be made to
>the next draft.
>
>Page 6-33, Section 6.6.1.2, line 22.  The title of this section (in
>italics) should be
>changed to "What do ground surface temperature reconstructions derived
>from subsurface
>temperature measurements tell us?"
>
>Page 6-33, lines 49 and 52, there is a reference (Smerdon et al., in press).
>This paper has now been published, so substitute "2006" for "in press",
>and in the list
>of references the citation should include the following:
>
>J. Geophys. Res. 111, D07101, doi:10.1029/2004JD005578
>
>Page 6-34, lines 43 and 44. This section is dealing with the southern
>hemisphere. The
>sentence "...these both indicate unusually warm conditions prevailing
>in the 20th century
>(Pollack and Smerdon, 2004)"  , and the reference therein, are both incorrect.
>
>The ground surface temperature changes over the last 500 years DO NOT
>indicate unusually
>warm conditions prevailing in the 20th century in Australia and
>southern Africa. This is
>because the unusually warm conditions developed late in the century,
>after most of the
>boreholes had already been logged.  What the borehole reconstruction
>for Australia does
>show is very good correspondence with the Cook et al (2000)
>reconstruction for Tasmania
>and the Cook et al. (2002) recon for New Zealand. The Australia work is
>described in a
>manuscript Five centuries of Climate Change in Australia: The View
>from Underground by
>Pollack, Huang and Smerdon now under review in the Journal of
>Quaternary Science. The
>Africa work is unpublished.
>
>Is this e-mail to you sufficient to activate these changes? Or should I
>submit these
>comments to the US Government Review Panel? If I am to submit to the
>latter, they require
>all comments to be filed by May 9.
>
>Cheers,
>Henry
>
>-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
>
>Quoting Jonathan Overpeck <jto@u.arizona.edu>:
>
>>Hi Henry - hope you're having a nice summer. I just got back from the
>>IPCC mtg where we made plans for generating the final draft of our
>>paleo chapter. One question that came up is whether we can show (in
>>Fig 6.12 - southern hemisphere climate records of the last
>>millennium) your borehole recon for southern Africa. As you can see
>>below, Jason Smerdon has told our SH lead, Ricardo Villalba that the
>>recon we've used is not yet published. The question for you is
>>whether we can/should use a version that IS published, We feel your
>>recon is an important one to show as it represents a region not
>>represented by other good reconstructions. But, we don't want to use
>>something that has proven to be wrong.
>>
>>We appreciate your input on this issue. Also, if there is a published
>>recon that we can use, would you pls send the recon (guess it's only
>>one value per century, right?) and the ref we should cite?
>>
>>As you can imagine, we're under a tough time constraint, so if you
>>can let us know as soon as you can, that would be great.
>>
>>Many thanks, Peck
>>
>>>X-Sieve: CMU Sieve 2.2
>>>From: "Ricardo Villalba" <ricardo@lab.cricyt.edu.ar>
>>>To: "Keith R. Briffa" <k.briffa@uea.ac.uk>,
>>>	"Jonathan Overpeck" <jto@u.arizona.edu>
>>>Subject: Borehole in the Southern Hemisphere
>>>Date: Thu, 29 Jun 2006 06:00:20 -0300
>>>
>>>Hi Keith and Peck,
>>>Please, find below a copy of the message that I got from Jason Smerdon,
>>>regarding the South African borehole record. It looks that the record as it
>>>is shown in Figure 6.12 has not been published, however former versions of
>>>the South African reconstruction have been included in at least two papers.
>>>Please, let me know your impressions to proceed with this matter. Cheers,
>>>Ricardo
>>>
>>>----- Original Message -----
>>>From: "Jason Smerdon" <jsmerdon@ldeo.columbia.edu>
>>>To: "Ricardo Villalba" <ricardo@lab.cricyt.edu.ar>
>>>Sent: Wednesday, June 28, 2006 8:09 PM
>>>Subject: Re: Publication in JQR
>>>
>>>>  Hi Ricardo,
>>>>
>>>>  I believe that you are referring to the reconstruction from the Southern
>>>>  Africa holes that we provided to Tim Osborn.  That reconstruction has not
>>>>  been published as a time series as it is shown in Tim's figure.  I
>>>>  believe, however, that the same reconstruction was published as a
>>>>  histogram in the following reference:
>>>>
>>>>  Huang S, Pollack HN, Shen PY. 2000. Temperature trends over the last five
>>>>  centuries reconstructed from borehole temperatures. Nature 403: 756-758.
>>>>
>>>>  The only thing that might be different is the number of holes that were
>>>>  used, but I don't think that part of the dataset has been updated since
>>>>  Huang's 2000 paper.  To confirm this I would encourage you to contact
>>>  > Henry Pollack at hpollack@umich.edu.  He will know for sure.  A similar
>>>>  reconstruction using a subset of the Southern Africa holes is referenced
>>>>  in the Australian paper:
>>>>
>>>>  Tyson PD, Mason SJ, Jones MQW, Cooper GRJ. 1998. Global warming and
>>>>  geothermal profiles: The surface rock temperature response in South
>>>>  Africa.  Geophysical Research Letters 25: 2711-2714.
>>>>
>>>>  But the reconstruction will of course not be exactly equal to the larger
>>>>  Southern African reconstruction that we provided for Tim.  I hope this
>>>>  helps and let me know if I can be of any further assistance.
>>>>
>>>>  Jason
>>>>
>>>>  On Wed, 28 Jun 2006, Ricardo Villalba wrote:
>>>>
>>>>  > Dear Jason,
>>>>  >  Thanks for the preprint. Do you know if the South African borehole
>>>records
>>>>  > has been published? Thanks,
>>>>  > RIcardo
>>>>  >
>>>>
>>
>>
>>--
>>Jonathan T. Overpeck
>>Director, Institute for the Study of Planet Earth
>>Professor, Department of Geosciences
>>Professor, Department of Atmospheric Sciences
>>
>>Mail and Fedex Address:
>>
>>Institute for the Study of Planet Earth
>>715 N. Park Ave. 2nd Floor
>>University of Arizona
>>Tucson, AZ 85721
>>direct tel: +1 520 622-9065
>>fax: +1 520 792-8795
>>http://www.geo.arizona.edu/
>>http://www.ispe.arizona.edu/


-- 
Jonathan T. Overpeck
Director, Institute for the Study of Planet Earth
Professor, Department of Geosciences
Professor, Department of Atmospheric Sciences

Mail and Fedex Address:

Institute for the Study of Planet Earth
715 N. Park Ave. 2nd Floor
University of Arizona
Tucson, AZ 85721
direct tel: +1 520 622-9065
fax: +1 520 792-8795
http://www.geo.arizona.edu/
http://www.ispe.arizona.edu/
</x-flowed>
