date: Thu Feb 28 12:50:55 2008
from: Phil Jones <p.jones@uea.ac.uk>
subject: Re: cold winter in context... a story
to: Andrew Revkin <anrevk@nytimes.com>

    Andy,
        It does seem to be jumping on a bit of cold weather.  We do a press release
    every year - even this is slightly too often. I've never done one about an individual
    month. Occasionally journalists call about warm periods, but I give them the message I've
   given you.
       The skeptics also leap on any paper that supports their views and ignore
    most others - or try to pour cold water on them. They mostly look at observation
    papers and ignore modelling ones, as they believe by default models are wrong!
    Cheers
    Phil
   At 12:28 28/02/2008, you wrote:

     great. thanks very much, phil.
     what's amusing, in a way, is how the 'skeptics' jump on a cold patch as evidence of
     global cooling but attack enviros for highlighting warming trend.

      Andy,
          HadCRUT3 numbers on the Watts website are OK.
      As has been said the Jan08 value is just one month. The NH winter and last autumn
      have been cool, but this was to be expected given the ongoing La Nina event. The ENSO
      phase often changes around April/May so keep a watch on the equatorial Pacific over
      the next few months. We could go into an El Nino, stay in La Nina or go neutral. Based
      on the La Nina state we are in (and were in at the start of the year) the Met Office
      and UEA issued a forecast for 2008 (for global T).
       [1]http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/corporate/pressoffice/2008/pr20080103.html
      Forecast was for a cooler year in 2008 - coolest since 2000. As has been said
      natural variability dominates on monthly to up to 2-3 year timescales. Some of
      this natural variability relates to ENSO, but there is also NAM (NAO) and SAM
      as well - the latter on slightly shorter timescales than ENSO.
      Large El Nino's tend to warm annual global T by about +0.1-0.15 deg C (as in 98)
      while La Nina's cool by similar amounts. Global T also tends to lag the ENSO phase
      by about 6 months. These fluctuations on interannual
      timescales are almost an order of magnitude larger than the +0.02 deg C per year
      expected from anthropogenic influences.
      Natural variability has always been with us and will continue to be so in the future.
      Anthropogenic influences more on decadal and longer timescales.
      If you look at the map for Jan08 you'll see that Northern Europe has been
      well above normal, but not near record levels. In the UK snowdrops
      and crocuses have been out for weeks, daffodils out now and blossom
      on many trees also out several weeks early.  We've been lucky this winter,
      but it is down to a positive NAO. A positive NAO also tends to make the
      Eastern Mediterranean and the western Middle East experience a cool
      winter. The typical NAO influence on eastern North America is less
      evident, but this is probably due to the stronger La Nina influence.
      Cheers
      Phil
      Cheers
      Phil
     At 20:23 27/02/2008, Andrew Revkin wrote:

     As you all are aware, a very vocal and plugged-in crew has been making much of the
     recent downturn in temps.
     Because the 'Average Joe' out there is only hearing radio soundbites about the sun
     turning off, or cable-news coverage or some stray TV image of snow in baghdad (and
     particularly with a big 'skeptics conference' coming next week), I think it's important
     to do a story putting a cold stretch in context against the evidence for the long-term
     warming trajectory from greenhouse forcing. Would need input from you by end of Thursday
     ideally.
     I've already queried a heap of Arctic hands on sea-ice fluctuations with intrsting
     responses (as I wrote 10/2/07, it's still mainly first-year thin ice, and -- by volume
     of sea ice -- there ain't much).
     Also need to explore questions related to solar trends.
     First request (for those of you from the four groups tracking temps) is for you to to
     look at the data below. Anthony Watts has (potentially usefully, if the data are
     accurate) compiled the four main ongoing efforts to track things. Can you tell me if the
     datasets he's used are correct for your groups??
     here's text file
      [2]http://wattsupwiththat.files.wordpress.com/2008/02/4metrics_temp_anomalies.txt
     here's his graph
      [3]http://wattsupwiththat.files.wordpress.com/2008/02/giss-had-uah-rss_global_anomaly_1
     979-2008.png
     We'd like to explore this graphically as well, perhaps looking at winter temps in
     isolation, or just doing something akin to what's been done above.
     And then there are the substance questions. I'd love it if you'd weigh in on any or all,
     either in an email or call.
     1) How unusual is the current downturn? In particular, in relation to ENSO and other
     cycles that might cut the other way etc?  Any 'easy' explanations, or is it good
     old-fashioned variability?
     2) Anything pop out when you look at the hemispheres as opposed to global?
     3) Do  you see ANY evidence of solar activity playing a role, either background or
     foreground?
     4) Presumably global HEATING is continuing apace, even as global TEMP fluctuates. Is
     that right, and/or are there ocean data showing ongoing heating of seas etc?
     5) The folks using the cold snap to attack greenhouse theory include some of the same
     people who blamed 'hot heads' for using hot years to support their view of what's
     coming. Does that seem the case to you ?
     6) Takehome message?
     As always, your thoughts are much appreciated. Feel free to respond to me alone or to
     the group to inspire some multi-logue.
     --
      Andrew C. Revkin
     The New York Times / Science
     620 Eighth Ave., NY, NY 10018
     Tel: 212-556-7326 Mob: 914-441-5556
     Fax:  509-357-0965
      [4]www.nytimes.com/revkin

     Prof. Phil Jones
     Climatic Research Unit        Telephone +44 (0) 1603 592090
     School of Environmental Sciences    Fax +44 (0) 1603 507784
     University of East Anglia
     Norwich                          Email    p.jones@uea.ac.uk
     NR4 7TJ
     UK
     ----------------------------------------------------------------------------


--

     Andrew C. Revkin
     The New York Times / Science
     620 Eighth Ave., NY, NY 10018
     Tel: 212-556-7326 Mob: 914-441-5556
     Fax:  509-357-0965
     [5]www.nytimes.com/revkin

   Prof. Phil Jones
   Climatic Research Unit        Telephone +44 (0) 1603 592090
   School of Environmental Sciences    Fax +44 (0) 1603 507784
   University of East Anglia
   Norwich                          Email    p.jones@uea.ac.uk
   NR4 7TJ
   UK
   ----------------------------------------------------------------------------

