cc: Edward Cook <drdendro@ldeo.columbia.edu>
date: Mon, 2 Jun 2008 07:45:38 -0400
from: Edward Cook <drdendro@ldeo.columbia.edu>
subject: Re: Palaeoclimate uncertainites
to: Keith Briffa <k.briffa@uea.ac.uk>

   Hi Keith,

   Thanks for the forwarded email. Was the graphic from Jonathan as well?

   An inquiry now. There is a new post-doc in stats at Columbia via New Zealand, Matthew
   Schofield, who wants to work on using hierarchical Bayes modeling to explicitly quantify
   reconstruction uncertainty literally from the standardization step all the way to the final
   reconstruction simultaneously. He wrote a rather horrid paper on this topic, submitted to
   the International Journal of Climatology, using a terribly simplistic simulation to "prove"
   that his method was demonstrably better than what we have done in the past. His lack of
   understanding of what we do came through load and clear. To his credit, Matt contacted me
   without knowing that I was a reviewer of his paper and we set up a meeting to discuss his
   work. Manu Lall, my genius colleague here who know hierarchical Bayes very well, came along
   too. I showed Matt a powerpoint presentation on the whole matter of tree-ring
   standardization and its impact on climate reconstruction using Tornetrask data over the AD
   interval as an example. Matt came away with a far better understanding of the issues and
   the realization (drummed by me into his head) that he needs to work with real tree-ring
   data to demonstrate his case in a believable manner. So the question I have to you is can I
   give Matt the Tornetrask data to work with in his hierarchical Bayes modeling? Manu and I
   would work directly with him and it would be great to have you involved as well of course.
   I would be extremely careful in telling Matt about the Tornetrask data being strictly for
   his private personal use in collaboration with us. He seems like an honest, earnest, young
   man who just needs a bit of expert guidance to avoid simple mistakes in using tree rings.
   The payoff could truly be quite special. Are you on board?

   How is Amy doing? Will the operation be this week?

   Cheers,

   Ed
   ==================================
   Dr. Edward R. Cook
   Doherty Senior Scholar and
   Director, Tree-Ring Laboratory
   Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory
   Palisades, New York 10964  USA
   Email: [1]drdendro@ldeo.columbia.edu
   Phone: 845-365-8618
   Fax: 845-365-8152
   ==================================
   On Jun 2, 2008, at 4:34 AM, Keith Briffa wrote:

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   Date: Sat, 31 May 2008 15:18:42 +1200

   From: "Jonathan Palmer" <[2]gondwanadendro@gmail.com>

   To: "Keith Briffa" <[3]k.briffa@uea.ac.uk>

   Subject: Re: Palaeoclimate uncertainites

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   Hi Keith

   Many thanks for including me in the net of opinions being sought.  Here are some comments
   and thoughts to use/ignore.  Sorry for the delayed response.

   1)      sources of climate interpretational uncertainty how can this be quantified and
   represented?

   Not sure on how to deal with this (you and Steady are my hopes here!).  I do however want
   to push interhemisphere differences in data availability leading to interpretational
   uncertainty. We simply haven't got the same network coverage of sites as seen in NH.  Also,
   the most interesting stories emerging are not aligned to the conventional PEP (North-South)
   associations - for example the interdecadal pacific oscillation with the atlantic
   multidecadal oscillation.

   2)      strategies for reducing these uncertainties?

   My main barrow-push here would be to step-up international research programs and
   particularly in the SH.  Better spatial coverage.  For example, we in NZ are progressing
   too slowly due to a very limited funding pool.   Read: NZ has multi-species potential,
   Tassie has Huon pine, Ricardo has S America.  Perhaps we need to develop a network (with
   you and Steady) that aims at leveraging funding?  Can you come south?

   Steady is coming next year Jan-March for a couple of weeks - can you join us?

   3)      database / data archiving needs and ideas?

   Misses the point. Major crisis looming here are the physical samples.  We are loosing the
   trees.  Steady can tell you about his efforts in SE-Asia.  In NZ, we have 40,000 year old
   ancient kauri being mined.  I reckon it will be exhausted within 10 years.  The holocene
   sites in 5 years.  Saw-millers are already starting to buy farms so that they can secure
   some future supply.  We have set-up an archive at a local museum for biscuits of kauri for
   future research programs. In other words I have adopted a fire-fighting approach - save as
   many samples as I can and hope there might be funding to work on them later. Steady has
   funded me over the last 5 years to collect silver pine (Halocarpus biformis) from the West
   Cost.  We have multi-millennial chronos thanks to that investment - but some sources have
   been completely destroyed by the land being converted to dairy pastures.  The other area is
   now a kiwi habitat sanctuary so the permit process for further sampling has become much
   harder.  So, data archiving is vital, but I'm first trying to save samples!

   So far I have  20' container and 4.5 x 6m shed with my samples stored in them.  I am
   starting to use Filemaker Pro for a relational database for all the data - a wonderful
   example of this type of application was presented at INQUA by Phil Barrat at QUB (former
   PhD of Mike Baillie but the silly sod burnt his bridge there).  I'm using a similar
   approach to Phil and have also roped in Gretel Boswijk at Auckland Uni.  We are both going
   to use the same database template and will store copied of each others archive (for
   insurance etc).  I have attached a copy of the template.

   Other:

   Your UK Department for International Development (DFID) has announced it will spend 100m
   stirling on research in developing countries "into the impacts of climate change on the
   poorest and most vulnerable people and helping communities, governments and the private
   sector take action to help prepare for these impacts".  My point is they are saying more
   detailed climate impact models (with known uncertainties) might be useful for the UK - it
   isn't for developing countries.  What the developing countries need is grass-roots adaption
   strategies.  The science needs to not only be published in peer-reviewed (western) journals
   but also other communication channels - such as video, community visits and the mass
   media.  A starting point might be the expectation that some publications are published
   "locally" (and translated).  This ofcourse means we are sacrificing our citation profile
   etc. and currently means any academic losses potential RAE ranking.  However, funding
   agencies like NERC could be encouraged to make this a requirement (and this would then
   hopefully spill into the RAE system).

   Gotta go.  Am en-route to Karachi for 3+weeks working for Steady.  Let me know how it goes.

   Cheers

   Jonathan

   2008/5/16 Keith Briffa <<[7]mailto:k.briffa@uea.ac.uk>[8]k.briffa@uea.ac.uk>:

   A General Call for Input to a Meeting on Palaeoclimate Uncertainties

   PLEASE NOTE - this message has been sent to a representative selection of those working in
   different tree-ring laboratories - please forward to those of your colleagues who would be
   interested - THANK YOU

   Dear Colleagues,

   I have been tasked with drafting the 'White paper' in the general topic of 'Reducing
   Uncertainties', in my case with a focus on tree-ring data. This is meant as the basis for
   discussion at a wider meeting dealing with various high-resolution proxy data, being held
   in Trieste funded by PAGES/CLIVAR.

    Hence I am asking for specific input from any of those among you who wish to contribute
   specific points or stress, even briefly or as concepts, areas of concern regarding present
   work or future requirements.

   The context is general dendroclimatology and the use of tree-ring-derived climate
   reconstructions specifically for establishing the precedence of instrumental observations
   in a recent multi-millennial context.

   The specific issues I have been asked to address include:

   1)      sources of climate interpretational uncertainty how can this be quantified and
   represented?

   2)      strategies for reducing these uncertainties?

   3)      database / data archiving needs and ideas?

   The 'white paper' is only intended to be several pages long so specific ideas, concerns
   etc. along the lines indicated, would be very welcome. I would then try to condense them
   and draft the text.

   I must complete this task in the next 2 weeks so brief, initial thoughts and points that
   you consider must be included would be most welcome.

   At present Ed Cook ,Rosanne D'Arrigo and Dave Frank are included among the participants (
   Congratulations to Jan Esper on the recent arrival of a brace of beautiful girls - provided
   they take after their mother that is) and I would particularly hope for input from them but
   I know it is vital to get wider input from others working in this area of dendroclimatology
   or who have real concerns with the issue of climate change detection and attribution and
   the use of tree-ring data for model validation or work aimed at quantifying transient
   climate sensitivity in the real world.

   Any thoughts, specific text or important PowerPoint slides would be most welcome.

   With very best wishes and thanks

   Keith Briffa

   15th May 2008

   --

   Professor Keith Briffa,

   Climatic Research Unit

   University of East Anglia

   Norwich, NR4 7TJ, U.K.

   Phone: +44-1603-593909

   Fax: +44-1603-507784

   <[9]http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/cru/people/briffa/>[10]http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/cru/people/bri
   ffa/

   --

   Dr Jonathan Palmer

   Gondwana Tree-Ring Laboratory

   PO Box 14, Little River

   Canterbury 7546

   New Zealand

   Content-Type: application/pdf; name="NZ Dendro-Archive.pdf"

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   --

   Professor Keith Briffa,

   Climatic Research Unit

   University of East Anglia

   Norwich, NR4 7TJ, U.K.

   Phone: +44-1603-593909

   Fax: +44-1603-507784

   [11]http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/cru/people/briffa/ <NZ Dendro-Archive.pdf>

