cc: "Stephen Leroy" <leroy@huarp.harvard.edu>, "claudia tebaldi" <ctebaldi@climatecentral.org>, "Tom Knutson" <tom.knutson@noaa.gov>, "Knutti Reto" <reto.knutti@env.ethz.ch>, "Daithi Stone" <stoned@csag.uct.ac.za>, "Tim Delsole" <delsole@cola.iges.org>, "Stott, Peter" <peter.stott@metoffice.gov.uk>, "Myles Allen" <allen@atm.ox.ac.uk>, "Zwiers,Francis [Ontario]" <francis.zwiers@ec.gc.ca>, "Tim Barnett" <tbarnett-ul@ucsd.edu>, "Hans von Storch" <hvonstorch@web.de>, "Phil Jones" <p.jones@uea.ac.uk>, "David Karoly" <dkaroly@unimelb.edu.au>, "Toru Nozawa" <nozawa@nies.go.jp>, "Ben Santer" <santer1@llnl.gov>, "Richard Smith" <rls@email.unc.edu>, "Nathan Gillett" <n.gillett@uea.ac.uk>, "Michael Wehner" <mfwehner@lbl.gov>, "Doug Nychka" <nychka@ucar.edu>, "Xuebin Zhang" <xuebin.zhang@ec.gc.ca>, "Jones, Gareth S (Climate Scientist)" <gareth.s.jones@metoffice.gov.uk>, seung-ki.min@ec.gc.ca
date: Sun, 6 Sep 2009 15:22:00 -0700 (PDT)
from: "Tim Barnett" <tbarnett-ul@ucsd.edu>
subject: Re: Second iteration
to: "Gabi Hegerl" <Gabi.Hegerl@ed.ac.uk>


hi...gabi has it right.  historically DOE has been pleased to see pre-
defined tasks completed year by year and not so concerned about time
sequence.  best, tim
> Hi all, I'll have a look next week, sorry for being slow.
>
> RE timeline: Its not very binding - so far, the agency seemed happy to
> see each year a progress report with some progress, and tasks being
> labelled 'done' or started - I am not under the impression that they
> are very worried about the order of things as long as we can show we
> are making good progress - of course,
> if there were a concern about that, then they might start looking at
> our promises.
> So, if you distribute your activities over the timeline in a way that
> results appear over time then we should be ok.... based on the last 2
> times.
>
> Gabi
>
> Quoting Stephen Leroy <leroy@huarp.harvard.edu>:
>
>> I've added a subtask 1.9 and a few sentences to subtask 2.2. Based on
>> Tim DelSole's last version.
>>
>> Stephen
>>
>>
>> Tom Knutson wrote:
>>> All,
>>>
>>> FYI, I sent the following paragraph to Claudia yesterday, to flesh
>>> out my part for Subtask 2.5:
>>>
>>> Tropical cyclones and climate change:  issues in detection and
>>> attribution of changes (Knutson)
>>>
>>> A key question for detection of a possible anthropogenic influence
>>> on tropical cyclones is whether the strong correlation between
>>> local Atlantic sea surface temperature and Atlantic hurricane power
>>>  dissipation, as shown by observed records since 1950, also holds
>>> for a greenhouse gas-induced warming.  If so, past hurricane
>>> changes might be attributable to anthropogenic forcing via an
>>> indirect attribution argument, since tropical Atlantic sea surface
>>> warming has been attributed to anthropogenic forcing.  Another
>>> implication would be a very large implied increase in Atlantic
>>> hurricane activity projected for the 21st century. Thus far,
>>> dynamical models do not support such an indirect attribution or
>>> dramatic projected increase, and thus there is not yet clear
>>> evidence of an anthropogenic influence on Atlantic hurricanes.
>>> Owing to the importance of this issue, continued work will involve
>>> further analysis of hurricane observed data sets for possible
>>> homogeneity problems, and continued development and refinement of
>>> the dynamical models used to simulate climate change influences on
>>> hurricane activity.
>>>
>>> Regards,
>>>
>>> --Tom Knutson
>>>
>>> Knutti Reto wrote:
>>>> Attached some more suggestions for year 1-3 deliverables based on
>>>> Daithi's version. It's hard to say when these things will happen as
>>>> none
>>>> of this is funded by IDAG, but it may not be that important in which
>>>> year we list it.
>>>>
>>>> Reto
>>>>
>>>>
>>>>> -----Original Message-----
>>>>> From: Daithi Stone [mailto:stoned@csag.uct.ac.za]
>>>>> Sent: Freitag, 4. September 2009 18:06
>>>>> To: Tim Delsole
>>>>> Cc: claudia tebaldi; Stott, Peter; Myles Allen; Knutti Reto; Gabi
>>>>> Hegerl; Zwiers,Francis [Ontario]; Tim Barnett; Hans von Storch; Phil
>>>>> Jones; David Karoly; Toru Nozawa; Ben Santer; Daithi Stone; Richard
>>>>> Smith; Nathan Gillett; Michael Wehner; Doug Nychka; Xuebin Zhang; Tom
>>>>> Knutson; Jones, Gareth S (Climate Scientist); Stephen Leroy; seung-
>>>>> ki.min@ec.gc.ca
>>>>> Subject: Re: Second iteration
>>>>>
>>>>> Attached further comments (on Tim's and Peter's version) and the
>>>>> beginning
>>>>> of a schedule...
>>>>> Cheers,
>>>>> DA
>>>>>
>>>>>> Hi Claudia.  Subtask 1.8 was completely blank, so I inserted a
>>>>> paragraph
>>>>>> and signed myself up.  I've also signed up for a few more things.
>>>> My
>>>>>> insertions build upon Peter's revision submitted today.  -Tim
>>>>>>
>>>>>>
>>>>>> Stott, Peter wrote:
>>>>>>> Dear Claudia,
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>> I'm attaching a version with some suggested changes and I've signed
>>>>>>> myself up for some more things.
>>>>>>> I'm also attaching a figure for inclusion with the figure caption
>>>>> below.
>>>>>>> Something to think about in the background for AR5 is who might
>>>> step
>>>>>>> into the mighty shoes of Daithi for providing detection and
>>>>> attribution
>>>>>>> figures and analysis on the CMIP ensemble for AR5 - I don't imagine
>>>>>>> Daithi wants to do that again so hopefully we can find a worthy
>>>>>>> successor !
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>> Thanks very much for all your efforts !
>>>>>>> Peter
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>> Distributions of near-surface temperature trends during 1950-1997
>>>> in
>>>>>>> different regions constrained by the global analysis in a climate
>>>>> forced
>>>>>>> with both anthropogenic and natural forcings (red lines) and with
>>>>>>> natural forcings only (green lines). The y axis gives the
>>>> normalized
>>>>>>> likelihood. The observed trend in each region is marked on each
>>>>> panel as
>>>>>>> a black line. The regions are South Australia (SAU), North
>>>> Australia
>>>>>>> (NAU), Central America (CAM), Western North America (WNA), Central
>>>>> North
>>>>>>> America (CAN), Eastern North America (ENA), Mediterranean Basin
>>>>> (MED),
>>>>>>> Northern Europe (NEU), South Asia (SAS), Atlantic (ATL), Pacific
>>>>> (PAC).
>>>>>>> Their geographical extents are defined in Christidis et al (2009).
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>> Dr. Peter Stott
>>>>>>> Head, Climate Monitoring and Attribution,
>>>>>>> Met Office Hadley Centre, Fitzroy Road, Exeter. EX1 3PB, UK
>>>>>>> Tel +44(0)1392 886646 Fax +44(0)1392885681
>>>>>>> Email: peter.stott@metoffice.gov.uk
>>>>>>> http://www.metoffice.gov.uk
>>>>>>> -----Original Message-----
>>>>>>> From: claudia.tebaldi@gmail.com [mailto:claudia.tebaldi@gmail.com]
>>>>> On
>>>>>>> Behalf Of claudia tebaldi
>>>>>>> Sent: 31 August 2009 17:05
>>>>>>> To: Myles Allen; Knutti Reto; Stott, Peter; Gabi Hegerl;
>>>>> Zwiers,Francis
>>>>>>> [Ontario]; Tim Barnett; Hans von Storch; Phil Jones; David Karoly;
>>>>> Toru
>>>>>>> Nozawa; Ben Santer; Daithi Stone; Richard Smith; Nathan Gillett;
>>>>> Michael
>>>>>>> Wehner; Doug Nychka; Xuebin Zhang; Tom Knutson; Tim Delsole; Jones,
>>>>>>> Gareth S (Climate Scientist); Stephen Leroy; seung-ki.min@ec.gc.ca
>>>>>>> Subject: Second iteration
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>> Dear all,
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>> First of all, thank you to all of you that replied to my first
>>>> draft
>>>>>>> with thoughtful comments, suggestions, edits, content. I tried and
>>>>>>> incorporated all that I could in this second version.
>>>>>>> The thing still needs your input, but hopefully this time it is a
>>>>> more
>>>>>>> targeted, specific set of things you can give me, and hopefully not
>>>>> as
>>>>>>> time consuming.
>>>>>>> My goal would be to have the proposal ready for submission at the
>>>>> end of
>>>>>>> next week, but we'll see.
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>> So, here is what I would like to get from you *by the end of this
>>>>>>> week* so that I can work on it for a few more days before that
>>>>>>> (admittedly arbitrary) deadline.
>>>>>>> Actually, one thing I would like you to do sooner, i.e. as soon as
>>>>> you
>>>>>>> get this email, is to reply telling me if you are (or want to be) a
>>>>>>> funded member, and, in that case, including a short bio.
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>> Then, for the proposal's narrative, I would like it of course if
>>>> you
>>>>>>> read the entire thing again and checked/edited/suggested again if
>>>>> you
>>>>>>> see something you don't like or would like changed. I don't have
>>>> any
>>>>>>> figures yet in there and it would be extremely helpful if I could
>>>>> get a
>>>>>>> few (with captions) to make the proposal less black and white.
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>> The most important feedback I need is related to the work plan,
>>>>> where
>>>>>>> some of you are missing still. Please go through it and sign
>>>>> yourself
>>>>>>> up. And if you see items that are still only a single sentence,
>>>>> please
>>>>>>> flesh those out. Even more importantly, I need specific
>>>> year-by-year
>>>>>>> deliverables from the various groups that are responsible for the
>>>>>>> tasks/subtasks. Maybe the heads of the groups can come up  with
>>>> that
>>>>>>> kind of prediction/promise.
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>> That's about it. There are a few specific comments in the text
>>>> where
>>>>> I
>>>>>>> need  info, you'll see, but those are few and sparse.
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>> So, summarizing
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>> ASAP:
>>>>>>>      - Do you need money? Reply immediately with a yes or no,
>>>>> please,
>>>>>>> and send brief bio if the answer is yes (all) BY THE END OF THIS
>>>>> WEEK
>>>>>>> (meaning you can use the weekend too!):
>>>>>>>     - Check narrative as a whole  (all)
>>>>>>>     - Contribute a figure w/caption   (all)
>>>>>>>     - Sign up for tasks/subtasks   (all)
>>>>>>>     - Come up with year-by-year deliverables  (Tasks' quadres)
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>> Thank you all for your help. Again, I hope I did not
>>>>> misrepresent/forget
>>>>>>> anything substantial in trying to merge all the different streams
>>>> of
>>>>>>> feedback you kindly provided.
>>>>>>> I'm attaching the document in two formats, so that hopefully
>>>>> everybody
>>>>>>> will be able to open it ok (I'm trying to preemptively eliminate
>>>>> every
>>>>>>> excuse you can come up with for not doing this ;-) )
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>> bye
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>> c
>>>>>>> --
>>>>>>> Claudia Tebaldi
>>>>>>> Research Scientist, Climate Central
>>>>>>> http://www.climatecentral.org
>>>>>>> +1 (303) 775 5365
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>
>>>>>> --
>>>>>> Timothy DelSole
>>>>>> Associate Professor
>>>>>> Department of Atmospheric, Oceanic, and Earth Sciences
>>>>>> George Mason University
>>>>>> Fairfax, VA
>>>>>>
>>>>>> Mailing Address:
>>>>>> Center for Ocean-Land-Atmosphere Studies
>>>>>> 4041 Powder Mill Rd.
>>>>>> Suite 302
>>>>>> Calverton, MD 20705-3106
>>>>>>
>>>>>> email: delsole@cola.iges.org
>>>>>> Office: 301-902-1258
>>>>>> Fax:    301-595-9793
>>>>>> COLA:   301-595-7000
>>>>>>
>>>>>>
>>>>>>
>>>>>>
>>>
>
>
>
> --
> Gabriele Hegerl
> chair of climate system science
> School of GeoSciences
> University of Edinburgh
> http://www.geos.ed.ac.uk/people/person.html?indv=1613
>
> --
> The University of Edinburgh is a charitable body, registered in
> Scotland, with registration number SC005336.
>
>
>
>


