date: Fri Nov 28 13:21:13 2003
from: Mike Hulme <m.hulme@uea.ac.uk>
subject: Fwd: Progress towards a global climate community based on equity
to: v.mcgregor

   Please print for me.
   Mike

     Reply-To: <titus@cewc.org>
     From: "Titus Alexander" <titus.alexander@mcr1.poptel.org.uk>
     To: <antti.pentikainen@ahtisaari.fi>
     Cc: <ennals@kingston.ac.uk>
     Subject: Progress towards a global climate community based on equity (WBGU report &
     Chanctonbury Initiative)
     Date: Fri, 28 Nov 2003 13:05:34 -0000
     X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook, Build 10.0.4510
     Importance: High
     Dear Colleague,
     I am delighted to inform you that our conference on climate change at Wilton Park (15-17
     November) proposed a bold Initiative for a global climate community based on contraction
     and convergence.  I attach a statement which emerged through working groups. It does not
     represent the views of every participant, but a consensus of the large majority. A
     report from the event will follow. You are warmly invited to discuss, endorse and
     disseminate this proposal, post it on your website and pass it on to anyone who may be
     interested.

     As you may know, the recent report of the German Advisory Council on Global Change
     (WBGU) also recommends the creation of a "global climate community" based on contraction
     and convergence to equal per capita emissions rights (
     [1]http://www.wbgu.de/wbgu_sn2003_engl.pdf ) . This is a detailed and important
     document, which offers a real opportunity to create an equitable global solution to
     climate change.

     It may be seen as a positive response to the call by Prime Minister Atal Bihari Vajpayee
     at  the end of CoP 9: "We don't berlieve that the ethical principles of democracy could
     support any norm other than that all citizens in the world should have equal rights to
     use ecological resources."

     Other governments could make an historic breakthrough by approaching the German
     government to discuss these ideas.

     Key passages the WBGU report are as follows:

     The Council s recommendation:
     Aim towards equal per-capita emission rights and linear harmonization of emissions
     shares

     The WBGU recommends that emission rights for the greenhouse gases covered by the Kyoto
     Protocol be allocated according to the contraction and convergence approach, taking 2050
     as convergence year. This means that global emissions would need to be reduced
     substantially over the long term (contraction). In a further step, it would be agreed
     that the per-capita emissions of all states must reach equal levels in a continuous
     process extending until 2050 (convergence). In particular, this means that the percapita
     emissions of industrialized countries, which are still comparatively high at present,
     must be reduced, while some developing countries can initially increase their per-capita
     emissions. The principle of constancy requires that there be no sudden switch to equal
     per-capita emissions, because of the resulting stresses on the global economy. The
     approach further presupposes a functioning global emissions trading scheme, in order to
     reduce the costs of the transformation process.

     On p 58 the report says:
     The Council is aware of the danger that individual states could entirely refuse to adopt
     emission limits and could thus assume a free rider position. To cope  with this, the
     London based Global Commons Institute,  which originally developed the C&C model, has
     proposed a Global Climate Community': A group of  core states (EU, some Umbrella Group
     states, developing  countries) adopts emissions reductions according  to the C&C
     principle. The Council similarly recommends  to the coalition of voluntary participants
     that it retains the basic idea of the C&C allocation  approach despite the absence of
     important countries.
     On the other hand, the Council expressly warns that  such a situation the climate change
     mitigation goal  would most probably not be attained this will be all  the more so the
     more large-scale emitters refuse to join the regime. The goal of coalition members must
     therefore be to expand the group of participants as  swiftly and comprehensively as
     possible. Positive  incentives alone will probably not have sufficient effect. The
     resources required to buy the participation  of all free riders could not be mustered.
     Therefore the coalition members should agree that they  will impose political and
     economic sanctions against
     free rider states when the need arises.

     6.2
     Shaping commitments equitably
     Aiming towards equal emission rights

      The WBGU bases its arguments additionally on the  egalitarian principle, which can be
     derived from the
     human right to equal treatment. In terms of relations among the parties to the
     Convention or Protocol, this corresponds to the principle of equity (Art. 3(1) UNFCCC).
     It follows that ultimately, only an allocation of emission rights according to equal
     per-capita shares can be considered just.

     Implementing contraction and convergence
     At the long-term global emissions must be reduced  significantly (contraction). In
     addition, the WBGU
     postulates the principle of constancy, according to  which abrupt measures leading to
     drastic effects
     should be avoided in socio-economic systems. A sudden  switch to a per-capita allocation
     of tradable emission certificates is therefore not recommended: The resulting high
     transfer payments from industrialized to developing countries could have severe effects
     that would impact on the economies of all regions. For these reasons, the Council argues
     in favour of moving in a continuous process from the present allocation of shares, which
     entails very great imbalance in per-capita emissions, towards allocation according to
     equal per-capita shares (convergence). Building upon the review of scenario computations
     set out in Chapter 3, the WBGU recommends this contraction and convergence (C&C)
     approach with a linear convergence of emissions shares towards equal per-capita emission
     rights by the year 2050. This should embrace the emissions of CO2,CH4,N2O, HFCs, PFCs
     and SF6 (the Kyoto basket of greenhouse  gases) from energy, industry, agriculture and
     waste management. The emissions of other greenhouse  gases would be accounted for as
     CO2-equivalent  values according to their global warming potential,  as already provided
     for in the Kyoto Protocol.

      If developing countries are unable or unwilling  accept national-level emission caps in
     accordance  with the C&C approach from the outset, the WBGU recommends an opt-out clause
     for countries with relatively  low economic capacities, i.e. relatively low per-capita
     emissions and per-capita income. This  means that states would need to agree on a
     threshold  allowing to make use of the opt-out clause. For  instance, per-capita income
     and per-capita emissions  could be combined in one indicator. When states  exceed this
     threshold, they would be obliged to participate in the global C&C regime. The reduction
     burden  of developing countries which make use of the opt-out clause would be spread
     across the participating countries. This would ensure attainment of the stabilization
     target and thus compliance with the climate window. In this context, CDM projects in
     nonparticipating countries could have the function reducing burdens and integrating
     non-participants into the system. It needs to be noted that such a gradual transition
     from the present structure of the Kyoto Protocol (with its distinction between Annex-I
     and non-Annex-I states) towards a global C&C regime can only succeed if opt-out criteria
     are tight enough for the participating countries to be able to cope with the additional
     emissions reduction burdens.

      6.5
     Linking climate protection consistently with global governance
     Supporting convergence between industrialised and developing countries

      To do justice to the vision of sustainable development,  social and economic exigencies
     must be taken
     into account besides the climate protection goal. So  that the climate protection goal
     can be attained over
     the long term at low costs, climate policy needs to be linked consistently with global
     governance and
     development policy. The aim must be to promote social and economic convergence between
     industrialized
     and developing countries, and to facilitate  technology transfer. In addition to
     development cooperation activities focussed more firmly upon sustainability, a first
     step towards convergence can be to open markets to the products of developing countries.
     So that in the course of the globalization process, worldwide economic and social
     convergence can occur under circumstances characterized by declining rates of population
     growth over the long term (from 2050 onwards), development cooperation needs to be
     further intensified. In order to avoid an increase of the global population beyond the
     year 2050, education and health programmes for women in developing countries need to be
     promoted, as does the introduction of systems of social security.
     [2]http://www.wbgu.de/wbgu_sn2003_engl.pdf

     Yours sincerely

     Titus Alexander
     Development Consultant
     Council for Education in World Citizenship
     32 Carisbrooke Road
     London
     E17 7EF
     Tel: 020 8521 6977
     Mobile: 07720394740
     Email: titus@cewc.org
     [3]www.cewc.org
     Titus Alexander
     32 Carisbrooke Road
     London
     E17 7EF
     Tel: 020 8521 6977
     Fax: 020 8521 5788
     Mobile: 07720394740
     Email: titus@cewc.org

     The One World Trust
     Houses of Parliament, London, SW1A 0AA
     tel +44 (0)20 7219 3825, direct +44 (0)20 7219 2582
     mob +44 (0) 7789 483 221
     owt@parliament.uk
     [4]http://www.oneworldtrust.org
     Charity No. 210180
     Titus Alexander
     Development Consultant
     Council for Education in World Citizenship
     32 Carisbrooke Road
     London
     E17 7EF
     Tel: 020 8521 6977
     Mobile: 07720394740
     Email: titus@cewc.org
     [5]www.cewc.org

