date: Thu, 17 Jul 2003 14:37:42 -0400
from: Edward Cook <drdendro@ldeo.columbia.edu>
subject: Re: Fwd: climate story
to: Keith Briffa <k.briffa@uea.ac.uk>

<x-flowed>
Flesh out a 2-3 page proposal and I will pass it by Broecker. He is 
the first-order filter before anything would go to Gary Comer. I 
might have to put myself in as lead P.I. however to get the 
"first-order filter" to look at it.

>Why are you and that scientist with a reputation for big .. planning 
>some extended tree-ring work  (WITH SELECTED EUROPEANS OF COURSE)!
>>X-Sender: f028@pop.uea.ac.uk
>>X-Mailer: QUALCOMM Windows Eudora Version 5.1.1
>>Date: Thu, 17 Jul 2003 16:51:27 +0100
>>To: k.briffa@uea.ac.uk,t.osborn@uea.ac.uk
>>From: Phil Jones <p.jones@uea.ac.uk>
>>Subject: Fwd: climate story
>>
>>
>>  FYI - worth a read !
>>
>>>From: "Regalado, Antonio" <Antonio.Regalado@wsj.com>
>>>To: "Regalado, Antonio" <Antonio.Regalado@wsj.com>
>>>Subject: climate story
>>>Date: Thu, 17 Jul 2003 10:45:27 -0400
>>>X-Mailer: Internet Mail Service (5.5.2654.89)
>>>X-MIME-Autoconverted: from 8bit to quoted-printable by 
>>>secinsgproxy.dowjones.com id h6HEjZh12696
>>>
>>>
>>>Thank you for your help with this article. Please keep me in mind if you
>>>have climate science related news in the future. -- Antonio
>>>
>>>Antonio Regalado
>>>Staff Reporter, The Wall Street Journal
>>>212-416-3011 (Tel.)
>>>917-686-3389 (Cell)
>>>
>>>
>>>
>>>
>>>Weather Vane: Billionaire Opens His Deep Pockets For Climate Theory ---
>>>Lands' End Founder Throws Millions Into Hunt for Data Showing Cataclysmic
>>>Shifts --- Why the Akkadians Dried Up
>>>By Antonio Regalado
>>>2,353 words
>>>17 July 2003
>>>The Wall Street Journal
>>>A1
>>>English
>>>(Copyright (c) 2003, Dow Jones & Company, Inc.)
>>>In May, billionaire Gary Comer and four climate experts boarded his Cessna
>>>Caravan and took off in search of a catastrophe.
>>>Flying low over southwestern Ontario, the group scanned the ground for
>>>boulders left behind by an ancient flood. The deluge, involving 2,000 cubic
>>>miles of fresh water from a prehistoric lake nearby, sent temperatures over
>>>the North Atlantic plummeting about 12,700 years ago, according to a theory
>>>advanced by scientists on the flight.
>>>The cataclysm -- triggered by the melting of glaciers at the close of the
>>>last ice age -- poses an urgent question for the present: Could global
>>>warming also set off unexpected and extreme climate shifts, such as
>>>substantial regional drops in temperature or long droughts?
>>>Some scientists think it's a possibility, and now their research is getting
>>>a major boost from Mr. Comer, 75 years old. The founder and former chairman
>>>of Lands' End Inc. sold the company to Sears, Roebuck & Co. last year,
>>>pocketing just over half the proceeds from the $1.9 billion cash deal. Since
>>>witnessing unusual ice conditions on an Arctic cruise, Mr. Comer has started
>>>handing out millions of dollars to researchers trying to document so-called
>>>abrupt climate change.
>>>The idea is that the Earth's climate can sometimes behave more like a switch
>>>than a dial, jumping in a matter of years between dramatically different
>>>conditions. At the time of the big flood in Ontario, temperatures in
>>>Greenland dropped by 18 degrees Fahrenheit. The flood also probably upset
>>>ocean currents and changed rainfall patterns as far away as the Asian
>>>monsoon.
>>>Abrupt climate change is a wild card in the divisive debate over the causes
>>>of global warming. For many, the chief culprits are so-called greenhouse
>>>gases formed by the burning of fossil fuels, such as oil and coal. These
>>>gases are thought to be insulating the planet like a blanket, causing
>>>temperatures to rise. A United Nations report predicts that average
>>>temperatures will increase 2.5 degrees to 10.4 degrees by 2100, throwing
>>>Arctic ecosystems into turmoil and threatening coastal communities with
>>>rising sea levels as glaciers melt and warming oceans expand.
>>>While there is broad consensus among scientists that global temperatures are
>>>rising because of fossil-fuel use, the extent and consequences of the
>>>warming remain uncertain. Such doubts now form the basis of the Bush
>>>administration's climate policy, which opposes costly reductions in
>>>emissions of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases.
>>>For some scientists concerned about the warming, abrupt climate change has
>>>become a rallying point. Not only does the theory offer worst-case
>>>scenarios, it co-opts one of the arguments favored by skeptics of global
>>>warming -- namely that scientists aren't certain about how the climate
>>>works.
>>>"What concerns me and a lot of people is that we are provoking a system
>>>about which we lack a total understanding," says Wallace S. Broecker, a
>>>geochemist at Columbia University who was among the first to outline the
>>>abrupt-change theory, in the mid-1980s. A feisty 71-year-old with a
>>>reputation for big ideas and for challenging fellow scientists, Dr. Broecker
>>>has become Mr. Comer's closest adviser.
>>>The evidence for sudden climate swings is beginning to find a wider
>>>audience. Last January, Robert Gagosian, director of the Woods Hole
>>>Oceanographic Institution, on Cape Cod, told the World Economic Forum at its
>>>meeting in Davos, Switzerland, that abrupt change could have the perverse
>>>effect of lowering temperatures in industrialized parts of the globe. A
>>>Senate bill would allocate $60 million to research on ancient ice and mud,
>>>and the Bush administration plans to highlight abrupt change in a major new
>>>strategic plan for climate-change research, due out this month.
>>>Archaeologists have linked the collapse of several civilizations to large
>>>climate changes. A long dry spell may have caused the decline of the
>>>Akkadian empire in Mesopotamia around 4,200 years ago. Researchers have
>>>unearthed a 180-kilometer-long wall built by a later kingdom to keep out
>>>refugees from newly arid regions.
>>>Hollywood is also taking note. News Corp.'s 20th Century Fox is in
>>>post-production for "The Day After Tomorrow," a big-budget movie in which
>>>global warming sets off a new ice age and Dennis Quaid plays a
>>>paleoclimatologist who battles encroaching glaciers. A studio description
>>>says the film "revolves around an abrupt climate change that has cataclysmic
>>>consequences for the planet."
>>>Critics of such notions -- and there are plenty -- say the yo-yoing of the
>>>climate over the millennia simply shows that man's influence may be grossly
>>>overestimated. They add that Mr. Comer isn't the first big donor to hand
>>>over money to scientists peddling an alarmist message.
>>>"Anyone who studies weather knows that it is variable, but suddenly it is
>>>being treated as a boogeyman," says Richard Lindzen, an atmosphere expert at
>>>the Massachusetts Institute of Technology. He notes that the biggest shifts,
>>>such as the one that occurred 12,700 years ago, happened under ice-age
>>>conditions, when mile-thick ice sheets dominated climate processes.
>>>Mr. Comer grew up on the South Side of Chicago, where his father was a
>>>railroad conductor, and worked for a time as a copy writer at Young &
>>>Rubicam. After quitting to travel to Europe, he decided to turn his hobby of
>>>competitive sailing into a business and founded Lands' End. The small
>>>mail-order operation grew to employ more than 6,000 people, but battles with
>>>his board made the job increasingly unpleasant, Mr. Comer says. A
>>>down-to-earth man who drives a six-year-old Lincoln Towncar and plays down
>>>his wealth, Mr. Comer concedes that with the gas-guzzling auto, in addition
>>>to his fleet of airplanes and boats, his lifestyle is responsible for
>>>prodigious amounts of carbon-dioxide emissions. But he doesn't see personal
>>>change as the solution.
>>>The former executive brings a degree of political independence to the
>>>climate debate. He says he made campaign donations to Bill Bradley and John
>>>McCain in the 2000 election, but couldn't bring himself to vote for either
>>>of the big-party candidates. He says that prior to his Arctic cruise, he had
>>>never given much thought to global warming.
>>>When Mr. Comer steered his 150-foot yacht Turmoil toward the Northwest
>>>Passage two summers ago, the crew expected to be blocked by sea ice.
>>>Instead, the ship slipped easily through open waters. An experienced Arctic
>>>traveler on board said the ice conditions were the mildest he had ever seen.
>>>The Turmoil was just the 94th ship to make the transit from the Atlantic to
>>>the Pacific through the Arctic islands of Canada since Roald Amundsen first
>>>did so in 1905.
>>>"It's obvious something is happening. But no one is really interested in
>>>doing anything about it," Mr. Comer said recently over a diner breakfast of
>>>bacon and eggs.
>>>After he returned from the Northwest Passage to his home outside Chicago, he
>>>typed "global warming" into the Google search engine. A fan of Tom Clancy
>>>and Joseph Conrad novels, he had read of 19th-century explorers who died in
>>>the passage, and he thought his own trip had been too easy. On the Internet,
>>>he found a debate between environmentalists and energy interests -- "one
>>>predicting the end of the world and the other saying nothing is happening,"
>>>he says.
>>>Mr. Comer initially considered launching a Web site of his own to counter
>>>the energy industry's arguments, but he decided it would get lost in the
>>>noise. Instead, he called the Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution.
>>>"I don't want to go out and tilt at windmills and waste my time, so I have
>>>focused on the scientists to help them do their job," he says.
>>>Mr. Comer wanted a splashy news conference, but Woods Hole, the world's
>>>largest independent ocean-research center, was more interested in collecting
>>>data than in setting off political fireworks. A Woods Hole oceanographer
>>>named William Curry came to Chicago and explained to Mr. Comer that
>>>researchers weren't sure whether there was actually less ice or if it was
>>>being moved elsewhere by wind. Soon the conversation turned to speculation.
>>>If the polar ice melted, Dr. Curry said, it could cause abrupt climate
>>>change.
>>>The scenario he laid out goes like this: Increasing rainfall and melting ice
>>>caused by global warming could lead to a buildup of fresh water in the North
>>>Atlantic. That influx could shut down circulating ocean currents that
>>>normally draw warm salty water from the tropics along with vast amounts of
>>>heat.
>>>Stopping those currents might disrupt the redistribution of heat around the
>>>globe. In fact, there is evidence that Atlantic currents may already be
>>>under pressure. A few months after the Chicago meeting, British scientists
>>>writing in the journal Nature showed that salinity has dropped measurably in
>>>the North Atlantic during the past 40 years. The Woods Hole graphics
>>>department turned the data into an interactive program that Dr. Curry
>>>e-mailed to Mr. Comer.
>>>Shortly afterward, Mr. Comer agreed to give Woods Hole $1 million to seed a
>>>program that would place buoys in the Atlantic to monitor changes in
>>>salinity, temperatures and ocean currents. According to an internal Woods
>>>Hole funding document, Mr. Comer's money came with the proviso that he
>>>wanted the research "kicked into high gear."
>>>Paleoclimatic research has exploded in the past several years, thanks to
>>>data found in ice cores, tree rings, coral and ocean sediment. The abrupt
>>>changes are the most striking feature of that data, but the ocean-currents
>>>theory is just one explanation. The atmosphere plays a much bigger role in
>>>climate, and many scientists expect tropical air to contain the mechanisms
>>>of abrupt change.
>>>Mr. Comer had been reaching out to other top scientists. He had written to
>>>Dr. Broecker at Columbia University, saying he was looking for ways to "make
>>>a difference" where he felt the government wasn't. A friend also put Mr.
>>>Comer in touch with F. Sherwood Rowland, a professor at the University of
>>>California at Irvine, who had shared a Nobel Prize for showing that
>>>chlorofluorocarbon gases used in spray bottles and refrigerators could
>>>deplete the ozone layer, an important shield against solar radiation. The
>>>chemicals were later banned when a huge hole in the ozone layer was detected
>>>over the Antarctic.
>>>In May 2002, Dr. Rowland and his wife, Joan, flew to Victoria, British
>>>Columbia, for a cruise on the Turmoil. Mr. Comer joined them after closing
>>>the sale of his company to Sears. Privately, scientists hope he will provide
>>>much more funding than he has. But Mr. Comer, who has also given $40 million
>>>for a new children's hospital in Chicago that will bear his name, sees his
>>>role as seeding research, not carrying it across the finish line. "The
>>>government has really got to step in," he says.
>>>Dr. Rowland and Mr. Comer were chatting on the bridge when the billionaire
>>>asked, "If I wanted to put $1 million into climate-change research, what
>>>should I do?" Dr. Rowland says he had a quick answer: provide 10 two-year
>>>fellowships to newly minted Ph.D.s recruited into climate-change science.
>>>"One to work with me, and another nine to other scientists I could pick
>>>out."
>>>The program soon rose to $6.9 million for 23 research groups, as Mr. Comer
>>>huddled several weeks later with Drs. Rowland and Broecker in New York. They
>>>gave $300,000 to an expert developing new ice-dating techniques, and an
>>>equal sum to Lonnie Thompson, an Ohio State University researcher known as
>>>the "Indiana Jones of paleoclimatology," who scales mountains in Latin
>>>America in search of rare tropical glaciers.
>>>Last month, Maine Sen. Susan Collins introduced the Abrupt Climate Change
>>>Research Act of 2003, a bill that would give the National Oceanic and
>>>Atmospheric Administration $60 million in additional funds to implement a
>>>major study of ancient climate records. Sen. Collins, a Republican, has
>>>parted ways with the Bush administration by calling for a reduction in
>>>greenhouse-gas emissions from power plants to 1990 levels.
>>>The administration has opposed mandating limits, arguing that the economic
>>>costs aren't justified by available science. The wait-and-see policy assumes
>>>that if warming occurs, it will do so gradually over the next century,
>>>leaving time to invent new energy sources or to simply adapt.
>>>That assumption could be wrong. In a 2002 report titled "Abrupt Climate
>>>Change: Inevitable Surprises," the National Academy of Sciences in
>>>Washington concluded that sudden regional climate shifts could be triggered
>>>by human activities.
>>>That possibility is starting to influence policy discussions, which have
>>>until now focused largely on the threat of steady warming. This month, the
>>>Bush administration is expected to release a major report outlining a new
>>>national research strategy for climate change. According to Mr. Bush's
>>>science adviser, John Marburger, abrupt climate change is identified as a
>>>"priority area" in the report, which he has seen. "It is clearly one of the
>>>things that needs to be looked at in the short term," says Dr. Marburger.
>>>Before Mr. Comer set out on the expedition to Ontario in May, he had his
>>>Dassault Falcon jet collect Dr. Broecker and other members of the team at
>>>Chicago's Midway Airport. They gathered for a day of meetings at his
>>>Wisconsin home, and later watched the sunset from a five-story,
>>>glass-enclosed tower that soars above the estate.
>>>During the three-day field trip, the group couldn't locate the path of the
>>>ancient flood. A chagrined University of Manitoba geologist named James
>>>Teller explained that he had predicted the flow using topographical maps, as
>>>he had never had enough funds or reason to rent a plane. Now Mr. Comer has
>>>sent out invitations for a new expedition in September. He thinks the water
>>>went north, into Hudson Bay.
>>>Document j000000020030717dz7h00030
>>> 2003 Dow Jones Reuters Business Interactive LLC (trading as Factiva). All
>>>rights reserved.
>>
>>Prof. Phil Jones
>>Climatic Research Unit        Telephone +44 (0) 1603 592090
>>School of Environmental Sciences    Fax +44 (0) 1603 507784
>>University of East Anglia
>>Norwich                          Email    p.jones@uea.ac.uk
>>NR4 7TJ
>>UK 
>>----------------------------------------------------------------------------
>
>--
>Professor Keith Briffa,
>Climatic Research Unit
>University of East Anglia
>Norwich, NR4 7TJ, U.K.
>
>Phone: +44-1603-593909
>Fax: +44-1603-507784
>
>http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/cru/people/briffa/


-- 
==================================
Dr. Edward R. Cook
Doherty Senior Scholar and
Director, Tree-Ring Laboratory
Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory
Palisades, New York 10964  USA
Email:	drdendro@ldeo.columbia.edu
Phone:	845-365-8618
Fax:	845-365-8152
==================================
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