date: Fri, 20 Apr 2001 10:15:00 +0100
from: Phil Jones <p.jones@uea.ac.uk>
subject: Fwd: Re: release
to: k.briffa@uea.ac.uk,t.osborn@uea.ac.uk

     X-Sender: k319@pop.uea.ac.uk
     Date: Thu, 19 Apr 2001 14:34:35 +0100
     To: Phil Jones <p.jones@uea.ac.uk>
     From: Annie Ogden <a.ogden@uea.ac.uk>
     Subject: Re: release
     OK. It now reads as follows. I've made a couple of additional changes - including last
     two paras. Annie
     Scientists from the University of East Anglia's world-famous Climatic Research Unit have
     brought together climate records from all over the world for the past 1000 years - from
     instruments, documents, tree rings, ice cores and corals.
     Natural climate phenomena such as El Nio and the North Atlantic Oscillation are
     probably not  responsible for the unprecedented warming of the 20th century, say the
     researchers, whose findings are published in the international journal Science this week
     (April 27).
     "The accuracy of records for the first half of the millennium is sometimes queried. We
     have calculated errors and the picture is clearer: all records show that the 20th
     century experienced the greatest warming of the millennium, said Professor Phil Jones,
     co-director of UEA's Climatic Research Unit.
     "Examining this broad span of records from all parts of the world, we see that the North
     Atlantic Oscillation, which is responsible for the UK's recent milder, wetter winters,
     has behaved in this unusual way before - notably in the 1730s, the mid-19th century and
     in the early 1900s. Similarly, we find elevated activity of El Nio events in some
     earlier periods. Some people have attributed global warming to these two phenomena - but
     the records show that their past activity did not result in significant warming."
     Knowledge of past climate variability is crucial for understanding and modelling current
     and future climate trends, says Professor Jones, who undertook the wide-ranging review
     of climate records with colleagues Dr Tim Osborn and Dr Keith Briffa.
     Instrumental records do not go back far enough to give the complete picture. Tree rings,
     coral and ice cores also preserve an accurate picture of climate variability from one
     year to the next, and the review includes historical documentary evidence.
     But the UEA researchers highlight the dangers of taking documentary sources at face
     value. Accounts of the Thames freezing over are often used to demonstrate colder winters
     of the past.  But a major factor in this was the way London Bridge was built with a
     number of piers, encouraging 'ponding'. The Thames did not freeze in 1962-3 - the third
     coldest winter since 1659. Indeed no complete freezing has occurred since the bridge was
     replaced in 1825-35.
     --
     ....................................................
     Annie Ogden, Press and PR Manager
     University of East Anglia,
     Norwich, NR4 7TJ.
     Tel:+44 (0)1603 592764

   Prof. Phil Jones
   Climatic Research Unit        Telephone +44 (0) 1603 592090
   School of Environmental Sciences    Fax +44 (0) 1603 507784
   University of East Anglia
   Norwich                          Email    p.jones@uea.ac.uk
   NR4 7TJ
   UK
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