cc: "Davey, Mike" <mike.davey@metoffice.gov.uk>, "Parker, David" <david.parker@metoffice.gov.uk>
date: Wed, 27 Jun 2007 12:53:11 +0100
from: "Folland, Chris" <chris.folland@metoffice.gov.uk>
subject: RE: In case you've not seen this awful paper
to: "Phil Jones" <p.jones@uea.ac.uk>, "Wood, Richard" <richard.wood@metoffice.gov.uk>

Phil

1. I have glanced through this  - reads like the Pilkey book which I
have read and which they refer to. Neither seems to have heard of NWP
and the extensive and improving skill verification statistics that
exist. This destroys the Pilkey book's central thesis about the
uselessness of all non linear mathematical models for all predictive
purposes at a stroke.

2. A paper has recently appeared in Science comparing early IPCC
expectations of changes in various climate parameters with what has
actually happened since. Looks good. David Parker is an author and can
provide a copy if need be. Seems to be a fairly well matched answer to
this article.

3. Next month we expect another criticism to start to fall - publication
in Science of the first and quite extensive set of validated decadal
hindcasts using a coupled model where the model is indeed initialised -
and a demonstration of the skill got from doing initialisation, compared
to not initialising. And a decadal forecast for the future which they
can get their teeth into which can already be partially verified. Wait
till this appears c 3 Aug.

4. There is quite a lot of skill up to a year ahead in probabilistic
real time numerical forecasts of El Nino SSTs using coupled models.
Don't think they know much about that. Mike Davey maybe can point to the
best paper on this.

5. In certain regions we can demonstrate real seasonal forecast skill
beyond chance using numerical models. I presented an example in my Prof.
lecture at CRU a year or two ago for the Upper Volta Soudan region of
West Africa. Think its not written up - Mike Davey can comment. There is
a discussion of N E Brazil seasonal rainfall skill using GCMs forced
with observed SST in Folland et al (2001) J. Climate. Mostly very long
set of seasonal hindcasts from 1912 in ensemble mode, but a few real
forecasts. Not a perfect example of what they are on about but relevant.
Don't think they know about that.

6. We regularly do moderately skilful forecasts of global surface
temperature one year ahead. Partly coupled model based only. But not yet
written up.   

Chris


Prof. Chris Folland
Head of Climate Variability and Forecasting Research 
 
Met Office Hadley Centre, Fitzroy Rd, Exeter, Devon  EX1 3PB United
Kingdom 
Email: chris.folland@metoffice.gov.uk
Tel: +44 (0)1392 886646 
Fax: (in UK)  0870 900 5050 
        (International) +44 (0)113 336 1072) 
<http://www.metoffice.gov.uk> 
Fellow of the Met Office
Hon. Professor of School of Environmental Sciences, University of East
Anglia




-----Original Message-----
From: Phil Jones [mailto:p.jones@uea.ac.uk] 
Sent: 25 June 2007 09:06
To: Wood, Richard; Folland, Chris
Subject: In case you've not seen this awful paper


  Richard, Chris,
    You may have seen this, so apologies if you have. Kevin's brief
  response is to the point. There might be some media coverage
  this week, as I think ISF is on now.

     We didn't respond to their email a few months back as it was
  too vague. I did get one though from Kestin Green.

      It would seem that both authors could do with reading some
  relevant literature - at least understand the difference between
forecasts,
  predictions and projections.

  Cheers
  Phil


>X-Authentication-Warning: moffatt.cgd.ucar.edu: apache set sender to 
>trenbert@ucar.edu using -f
>Date: Sun, 24 Jun 2007 18:21:24 -0600 (MDT)
>Subject: Re: Forecasting conference - Armstrong paper
>From: "Kevin Trenberth" <trenbert@ucar.edu>
>To: j.renwick@niwa.co.nz
>Cc: "Phil Jones" <p.jones@uea.ac.uk>
>Reply-To: trenbert@ucar.edu
>User-Agent: SquirrelMail/1.4.8-2.el4.centos4
>X-UEA-Spam-Score: 0.0
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>
>Jim
>Yes, and I offer the attached comments on his paper.  I haven't 
>commented on the bet he has made, but there will probably be something 
>on realclimate.com.
>I have had a lot of exchanges with Gavin.
>Not sure what to do with this: post it on realclimate.com is one
option.
>Anyway I am in the middle as a keynote speaker at this conference.  I 
>do plan to make my ppt available after the mtg via my web site.
>
>Kevin
>
> > Hi Kevin:
> >
> > I se you're speaking at ISF 2007 this week. One of the other invited

> > speakers, J Scott Armstrong, who is talking about public policy and 
> > forecasting (http://www.forecasters.org/isf/) has written the 
> > attached, ostensible for the ISF meeting. It's a strange document - 
> > even I get quoted in terms of a casual remark I made to an NZ 
> > journalist a few weeks ago (I should know by now there's no such 
> > thing as a casual remark). Just thought you should know this stuff,
if you didn't already.
> >
> > I got the PDF off the NZ Climate Science Coalition (i.e. Vince Gray 
> > and
> > co) website. By the way, I suppose you heard Augie Auer died 
> > suddenly a couple of weeks ago?
> >
> >
> > Cheers,
> > Jim
> > --
> > Dr James Renwick, Science Leader, climate variability & change 
> > National Institute of Water & Atmospheric Research Private Bag 
> > 14901, Wellington, NEW ZEALAND
> > J.Renwick@niwa.co.nz    Ph: +64-4-3860343 Mob: +64-21-1785550
> > http://www.niwa.co.nz  Fax: +64-4-3862153  or  +64-4-3860574
> >
>
>
>___________________
>Kevin Trenberth
>Climate Analysis Section, NCAR
>PO Box 3000
>Boulder CO 80307
>ph 303 497 1318
>http://www.cgd.ucar.edu/cas/trenbert.html

Prof. Phil Jones
Climatic Research Unit        Telephone +44 (0) 1603 592090
School of Environmental Sciences    Fax +44 (0) 1603 507784
University of East Anglia
Norwich                          Email    p.jones@uea.ac.uk
NR4 7TJ
UK 
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