date: Tue Jan 27 16:33:13 2004
from: Phil Jones <p.jones@uea.ac.uk>
subject: Re: AM I RIGHT ABOUT THIS?
to: John Davies <johnd@foe.co.uk>

    John,
       I've modified your text.
    Phil
   At 14:19 16/01/2004 +0000, you wrote:

     Dear Phil,
            I would be grateful if you could tell me if there is anything which is not true
     in the following passage from a paper/letter which I have written.  I imagine you have
     not got the time to read the whole thing but will send it you if you would like it.


     ''CAMPAIGN TO SAVE GLOBAL CLIMATE                     JB DAVIES   JAN 2003

     THE SITUATION NOW.

     This campaign is being started because of the grave danger that global warming poses to
     the worlds climate, all the people who live on the world and nearly all the species of
     plants and animals in the world.
     The leading climate research organisations, the overwhelming majority of the worlds
     climate scientists, and all the leading climate scientists are in general agreement that
     the world is warming as a result of human use of fossil fuels which is adding to the
     greenhouse gas concentration of the atmosphere, that the world is now half a degree
     Celsius warmer than it was less than thirty years ago and global climate is becoming
     destabilised.
     The above mentioned people and organisations are also in general agreement on the
     following:
     The three year period 2001-2003 was the warmest three year period on record at 0.45
     degrees Celsius above the 1961-90 global average according to figures issued by the
     Hadley Centre.  This is 0.51 degrees Celsius above the 1951-76 global average.
     These figures show that since 1976 the world has been warming at a fairly constant rate
     of 0.19 degrees Celsius per decade reaching 0.51 degrees Celsius above the level it was
     between 1951 and 1976 for the 2001-2003 period.  This is already causing some
     difficulties and probably one of these was the very hot summer in Europe in 2003.  It
     has been estimated that about 150,000 people are dying every year worldwide as a result
     of global warming.
     Nevertheless, so far the disruption to human life on the planet caused by global warming
     is relatively small. This will probably remain the case for the next few years as global
     temperatures over this short period will probably be very little different to the
     present.  However even within the next five years temperatures rising at 0.19 degrees
     Celsius per decade will cause noticeably greater disruption and hardship, certainly by
     2008 unless a very large volcano puts dust into the Stratosphere which reflects enough
     incoming sunlight back into space to cause slight cooling of the earth for 2 or 3 years
     delaying the onset of global warming during this period.  Though there is no evidence to
     suggest that this is going to happen or that it is not going to occur, I personally feel
     that it will happen.
     The worst thing about global warming is that these problems, which are already starting,
     will be permanent.  Though the hot summer of 2003 over Europe may not repeat itself for
     more than a few decades or so other climate related phenomena due to global warming will
     probably repeat themselves somewhere in the world on a regular basis from now on.  They
     will get much worse over time and once they are generally recognised will cause a dark
     cloud over peoples outlook on the future.
     THE NEXT TEN YEARS
     The global temperature figures issued by the Hadley Centre probably give an accurate
     picture of where global temperatures now stand.  Essentially these show that the three
     year January 2001 - December 2003 period was 0.51 degrees Celsius above the 1951-76
     global average. The three year January 2011 until December 2013 period has about a 60%
     chance of being between 0.65 and 0.75 degrees Celsius warmer than the level betweem 1951
     and 1976 with a 20% chance of being cooler than this and 20% warmer.
     Whilst this will not be catastrophic on a global scale assuming that global temperatures
     do not exceed 0.75 degrees Celsius above the 1951-1976 level, though it might be for
     some localities, over this time period it will mean that climatic disruption over this
     period will get noticeably worse and the majority of people around the world will become
     aware that if drastic action is not taken to save global climate then the future will be
     very bleak for humanity.
     All of the above is accepted by most climate scientists and all the worlds leading
     climate scientists and climatic research institutions.

     The following is my best interpretation of the climate situation and how this problem
     should be tackled.  I take full responsibility for any actions which result from what is
     said both the credit for what I hope will be beneficial and any blame if it is not on
     balance beneficial. ''

     All the Best,

     John B Davies


   Prof. Phil Jones
   Climatic Research Unit        Telephone +44 (0) 1603 592090
   School of Environmental Sciences    Fax +44 (0) 1603 507784
   University of East Anglia
   Norwich                          Email    p.jones@uea.ac.uk
   NR4 7TJ
   UK
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