cc: <chris.anastasi@british-energy.com>, <geoff.jenkins@metoffice.com>, <john.houghton@jri.org.uk>, <liya.korobova@fco.gov.uk>, <peter.stott@metoffice.com>, <N.W.Arnell@soton.ac.uk>, "Grout Nick \(Mr ND" <Nick.Grout@dti.gsi.gov.uk>, <peter.cox@metoffice.com>, <anton.atrashkin@fco.gov.uk>, <richard.turner@fco.gov.uk>, "White Kate [FCO] - UK" <kate.white@fco.gov.uk>, <irina.kuklina@britishcouncil.ru>, <dimitri.popolov@fco.gov.uk>, <fiona.clouder@fco.gov.uk>, <simon.kay@britishcouncil.ru>, <simon@lead.org>, <hugh.elliott@fco.gov.uk>, "Dr Simon J Shackley" <simon.shackley@umist.ac.uk>, <b.launder@umist.ac.uk>
date: Fri, 16 Jul 2004 20:33:57 +0100
from: "John Ashton" <john.ashton@co2.org>
subject: Re: Follow-up to the UK-Russia workshop - some provisional though
to: "Warrilow, David \(GA\)" <David.Warrilow@defra.gsi.gov.uk>, "'Grubb, Michael J'" <michael.grubb@imperial.ac.uk>, "Kevin Anderson" <kevin.anderson@umist.ac.uk>, "Hernandez Tino \(Mr AF" <Tino.Hernandez@dti.gsi.gov.uk>, <deborah.bronnert@fco.gov.uk>, "King MPST" <MPST.KING@dti.gsi.gov.uk>, "Grout Nick \(Mr ND" <Nick.Grout@dti.gsi.gov.uk>, "Dodd Sheree \(Ms S" <sheree.dodd@dti.gsi.gov.uk>, "Dave Stainforth" <das@atm.ox.ac.uk>, "Mike     Hulme" <m.hulme@uea.ac.uk>

   Yes, this is correct. I fully understand the urge to set the record straight. But we should
   be very careful not to play into Illarionov's hands. Anything that he can portray, however
   unfairly, as foreign pressure will make it harder to reach the bigger goal of Kyoto. The
   events of last week were not helpful - but the damage they did was, I believe, second
   order.



   John

   ----- Original Message -----

   From: [1]Warrilow, David (GA)

   To: [2]'Grubb, Michael J' ; [3]Kevin Anderson ; [4]Hernandez Tino (Mr AF ;
   [5]deborah.bronnert@fco.gov.uk ; [6]King MPST ; [7]Grout Nick (Mr ND ; [8]Dodd Sheree (Ms S
   ; [9]Dave Stainforth ; [10]Mike Hulme

   Cc: [11]chris.anastasi@british-energy.com ; [12]geoff.jenkins@metoffice.com ;
   [13]john.houghton@jri.org.uk ; [14]liya.korobova@fco.gov.uk ; [15]peter.stott@metoffice.com
   ; [16]N.W.Arnell@soton.ac.uk ; [17]Grout Nick (Mr ND ; [18]peter.cox@metoffice.com ;
   [19]john.ashton@co2.org ; [20]anton.atrashkin@fco.gov.uk ; [21]richard.turner@fco.gov.uk ;
   [22]White Kate [FCO] - UK ; [23]irina.kuklina@britishcouncil.ru ;
   [24]dimitri.popolov@fco.gov.uk ; [25]fiona.clouder@fco.gov.uk ;
   [26]simon.kay@britishcouncil.ru ; [27]simon@lead.org ; [28]hugh.elliott@fco.gov.uk ; [29]Dr
   Simon J Shackley ; [30]b.launder@umist.ac.uk

   Sent: Friday, July 16, 2004 3:06 PM

   Subject: RE: Follow-up to the UK-Russia workshop - some provisional though ts

   I haven't seen the attachment but Michael's caution seems very prudent.



   David

   -----Original Message-----
   From: Grubb, Michael J [mailto:michael.grubb@imperial.ac.uk]
   Sent: 16 July 2004 11:55
   To: Kevin Anderson; Hernandez Tino (Mr AF; [31]deborah.bronnert@fco.gov.uk; King MPST;
   Grout Nick (Mr ND; Dodd Sheree (Ms S; Warrilow, David (GA); Dave Stainforth; Mike Hulme
   Cc: [32]chris.anastasi@british-energy.com; [33]geoff.jenkins@metoffice.com;
   [34]john.houghton@jri.org.uk; [35]liya.korobova@fco.gov.uk; [36]peter.stott@metoffice.com;
   [37]N.W.Arnell@soton.ac.uk; Grout Nick (Mr ND; [38]peter.cox@metoffice.com;
   [39]john.ashton@co2.org; [40]anton.atrashkin@fco.gov.uk; [41]richard.turner@fco.gov.uk;
   White Kate [FCO] - UK; [42]irina.kuklina@britishcouncil.ru; [43]dimitri.popolov@fco.gov.uk;
   [44]fiona.clouder@fco.gov.uk; [45]simon.kay@britishcouncil.ru; [46]simon@lead.org;
   [47]hugh.elliott@fco.gov.uk; Dr Simon J Shackley; [48]b.launder@umist.ac.uk
   Subject: RE: Follow-up to the UK-Russia workshop - some provisional thoughts

     Kevin
     Thanks for thoughts, my personal reactions: I would strip out the more political stuff
     (eg. getting David King or even Blair to sign anything would be seen as directly
     political foreign interference in Russia's domestic debates); the battle of who controls
     the RAS is an internal battle that UK cannot determine.  How would we feel if Dick
     Cheney intervened to try and influence the content of a Royal Society report to HMG?  I
     doubt the 'pro-Kyoto' folk in Russia need more ammunition, they need the internal power
     that can only come from being seen as legitimate, independent & credible (and
     well-connected within Russia), whilst Illarionov probably tries to paint them as foreign
     collaborators.
     So be careful, and I would incline to separate the UK scientific contacts from the
     political levels.
     Also I dont think we should be obsessed by the 1 Aug deadline, very hard for any of us
     to influence that now.  The issue will run and run for a long time.  And longer-term,
     scientific based relationships will indeed be crucial in that contact.  So eg. a
     Tyndall-brokered research collaboration with Russian scientists ... ?
     Enough from me on this, none of us fully understand the forces at play or consequences
     of our inputs ...
     Michael
     -----Original Message-----
     From:   Kevin Anderson [[49]mailto:kevin.anderson@umist.ac.uk]
     Sent:   Thu 7/15/2004 9:21 PM
     To:     'Hernandez Tino (Mr AF'; [50]deborah.bronnert@fco.gov.uk; 'King MPST'; 'Grout
     Nick (Mr ND'; 'Dodd Sheree (Ms S'; [51]David.Warrilow@defra.gsi.gov.uk; 'Dave
     Stainforth'; 'Mike Hulme'
     Cc:     [52]chris.anastasi@british-energy.com; [53]geoff.jenkins@metoffice.com;
     [54]john.houghton@jri.org.uk; [55]liya.korobova@fco.gov.uk;
     [56]peter.stott@metoffice.com; Grubb, Michael J; N.W.Arnell@soton.ac.uk; 'Grout Nick (Mr
     ND'; peter.cox@metoffice.com; john.ashton@co2.org; anton.atrashkin@fco.gov.uk;
     richard.turner@fco.gov.uk; 'White Kate [FCO] - UK'; irina.kuklina@britishcouncil.ru;
     dimitri.popolov@fco.gov.uk; fiona.clouder@fco.gov.uk; simon.kay@britishcouncil.ru;
     simon@lead.org; hugh.elliott@fco.gov.uk; 'Dr Simon J Shackley'; b.launder@umist.ac.uk
     Subject:        Follow-up to the UK-Russia workshop - some provisional thoughts
     Dear All,
     As one of the 'not-so-young' young scientists attending the recent
     UK-Russia climate change workshop, I had the misfortune to  witness
     Illarionov both exert almost total control over the RAS and unreservedly
     dismiss the cogency of the UK delegation's scientific and economic case
     for Russia signing Kyoto. Given the UK Government's and David King's
     express concern over escalating greenhouse gas emissions and the
     importance of the Kyoto Protocol as a first step in their mitigation, it
     would seem wise that some alternative route be found by which UK experts
     can make their representation both to the relevant RAS scientists and
     other influential players with the decision-making process. In light of
     the imminent deadline for the RAS to submit their report to Putin (1st
     August), any such representation needs to be made in the coming 7 to 10
     days. To this end, and having discussed my proposals with Mike Hulme and
     Dave Stainforth, I attach some provisional thoughts on how this may be
     achieved.
     I realise, and indeed hope, the government and David King are already
     implanting a plan B, and if so my suggestions may be an unnecessary
     distraction. If this is the case I apologise in advance.
     Kind regards
     Kevin.
     Dr K.L. Anderson
     Co-manager
     Tyndall Centre for climate change research (North)
     UMIST
     PO Box 88
     Manchester
     M60 1QD
     Tel. +44 (0)161 306 3715
     Mobile. +44 (0)797 314 1376
     Fax: +44 (0)161 306 3255
     Email. kevin.anderson@umist.ac.uk
     Please note: all comments within this email are attributable to Kevin
     Anderson and do not necessarily reflect the views of other members of
     the Tyndall Centre.

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