date: Mon Jan  5 12:44:34 2009
from: Phil Jones <p.jones@uea.ac.uk>
subject: RE: IPCC forecasts vs nave benchmark
to: "Folland, Chris" <chris.folland@metoffice.gov.uk>

    Chris,
       Sounds good. Autumn fine.
    Cheers
    Phil
   At 12:10 05/01/2009, you wrote:

     Dear Phil

     Thanks very much.

     I could give a talk on the global forecasting paper and indicate the light it throws on
     the causes of a lack of recent global warming. I could combine this with the work we
     have done rthat shows that the current quasi-hiatus in warming for a decade is still
     consistent with 21st century model projections. Probably later this autumn?

     Chris
     Prof. Chris Folland
     Research Fellow, Seasonal to Decadal Forecasting (from 2 June 2008)
     Met Office Hadley Centre, Fitzroy Rd, Exeter, Devon  EX1 3PB United Kingdom
     Email: chris.folland@metoffice.gov.uk
     Tel: +44 (0)1647 432978
     Fax: (in UK)  0870 900 5050
             (International) +44 (0)113 336 1072)
     <[1]http://www.metoffice.gov.uk>
     Fellow of the Met Office
     Hon. Professor of School of Environmental Sciences, University of East Anglia
       ___________________________________________________________________________________

     From: Phil Jones [[2]mailto:p.jones@uea.ac.uk]
     Sent: 05 January 2009 11:56
     To: Folland, Chris
     Subject: RE: IPCC forecasts vs nave benchmark
      Chris,
         Have a good trip to OZ.
      Just before Christmas I recommended that you be continued as an Honorary Prof.
      I don't see why this shouldn't get approved. It won't be my fault if it is!
      There isn't a maximum number we can have.
        I said you'd be coming up at some point in the year to give another talk.
      Maybe when you have a near complete draft of the global T forecasting paper that
      would make a good idea.
      Cheers
      Phil
     At 19:31 02/01/2009, you wrote:

     Dear Phil

     Thanks.

     I have not heard of Scott Armstrong. He clearly works in the economics field. Int J
     Forecasting is such a journal. I suspect all of his work has been with economics
     statistical forecasting. Many of his principles, (can guess some and many doubtless are
     indeed relevant to the statistical aspects of the global annual forecasting methods)
     would not apply to dynamical predictions in the same way

     I have hardly read a worse paper. Its so bad in such fundamental ways, I dont  know
     where to start. The only concern I have at present about the current IPCC results is
     that the evidence grows slowly that 0.03C a year warming in the next decade may be too
     fast despite our decadal forecast. On the other hand (and this is important) we can
     expect to see the biggest changes in HadCRUT to date between versions 3 and 4 -
     depending somewhat on the availability of the forthcoming reprocessed (A)ATSR) SST data
     1991-2010 and of course on post 1945 bias corrections to SST which are likely to be
     complex and non trivial.

     Hopefully my global forecaasting paper when done (will send you a draft in due course
     before submission) will be a mite better!  But I am now concentrating on  work related
     to developments of the Baines and Folland (2007, J CLIM) paper for presentations in
     Australia in Feb. The OZs are paying most of this trip so I'd better do a good job.
     Includes a presentation at the SH Met and Ocean Conf in Melbourne. So global temp
     forecasting paper on hold till after I get back (away 4 Feb - 28 Feb with some holiday -
     Pat is coming).

     By the way, would it help to have an update of my "long" CV regarding my Professorship?
     - which I hope can be renewed in Aug 2009? I keep this CV up reasonably to date in the
     form of a Personal Portfolio and an external papers list.

     Cheers

     Chris
     Prof. Chris Folland
     Research Fellow, Seasonal to Decadal Forecasting (from 2 June 2008)
     Met Office Hadley Centre, Fitzroy Rd, Exeter, Devon  EX1 3PB United Kingdom
     Email: chris.folland@metoffice.gov.uk
     Tel: +44 (0)1647 432978
     Fax: (in UK)  0870 900 5050
             (International) +44 (0)113 336 1072)
     < [3]http://www.metoffice.gov.uk >
     Fellow of the Met Office
     Hon. Professor of School of Environmental Sciences, University of East Anglia
       ___________________________________________________________________________________

     From: Phil Jones [ [4]mailto:p.jones@uea.ac.uk]
     Sent: 02 January 2009 15:49
     To: Folland, Chris
     Subject: Fwd: IPCC forecasts vs nave benchmark
      Chris,
         I got this email over the Christmas break. Back in CRU today I picked up
      all paper from the website and it is attached. I initially thought it might be useful
     to
      you when you write up your global temperature forecasting technique. How wrong
      I was! I didn't believe it was possible to make so many mistakes in a paper
      and get it published - but it seems that it is quite easy!
         Anyway - Scott Armstrong is apparently very well know in statistical forecasting
      and has a series of rules, exemplified in his book from 2001. He may know something
      about his field, but it is clear he doesn't know anything about the climate system!
         I suspect these authors will make a big splash in certain media outlets
      when this paper comes out.
      Cheers
      Phil

     Date: Tue, 30 Dec 2008 20:32:09 +1300
     From: Kesten Green <kesten@paradise.net.nz>
     Subject: IPCC forecasts vs nave benchmark
     To: p.jones@uea.ac.uk
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     Dear Professor Jones,

     Scott Armstrong, Willie Soon, and I compare the accuracy of the IPCC's forecasts with
     those from a nave benchmark model in our new paper "Benchmark forecasts for climate
     change". The paper has been accepted for publication, but we still have two weeks to
     make further changes. We are particularly keen to learn about anything that might be
     obscure or incorrect in what we have written.

     Climate change is an important forecasting problem because fear of dangerous manmade
     global warming has led to major public policy expenditures.

     Our paper is located at [8]http://publicpolicyforecasting.com.

     Yours sincerely,
     Kesten Green

     Dr Kesten C Green
     Business and Economic Forecasting Unit,
     Monash University, Melbourne, Australia.
     Contact: T +64 4 976 3245; M +64 21 456 516; F +64 4 976 3250 PO Box 10800, Wellington
     6143, New Zealand.
     [9]forecastingprinciples.com

     Prof. Phil Jones
     Climatic Research Unit        Telephone +44 (0) 1603 592090
     School of Environmental Sciences    Fax +44 (0) 1603 507784
     University of East Anglia
     Norwich                          Email    p.jones@uea.ac.uk
     NR4 7TJ
     UK
     ----------------------------------------------------------------------------


     Prof. Phil Jones
     Climatic Research Unit        Telephone +44 (0) 1603 592090
     School of Environmental Sciences    Fax +44 (0) 1603 507784
     University of East Anglia
     Norwich                          Email    p.jones@uea.ac.uk
     NR4 7TJ
     UK
     ----------------------------------------------------------------------------


   Prof. Phil Jones
   Climatic Research Unit        Telephone +44 (0) 1603 592090
   School of Environmental Sciences    Fax +44 (0) 1603 507784
   University of East Anglia
   Norwich                          Email    p.jones@uea.ac.uk
   NR4 7TJ
   UK
   ----------------------------------------------------------------------------

