cc: "Warrilow, David \(GA\)" <David.Warrilow@defra.gsi.gov.uk>, "Phil Jones" <p.jones@uea.ac.uk>
date: Thu, 4 Jan 2007 15:13:05 -0000
from: "Mitchell, John FB \(Chief Scientist\)" <john.f.mitchell@metoffice.gov.uk>
subject: RE: Some help need if possible
to: "Jenkins, Geoff" <geoff.jenkins@metoffice.gov.uk>



I think it was based on a diagram A2 in the national Academy of Sciences
boolet "Understanding climate change" cirica 1974 if rmeber correctly- I
can find out in Reading tomorrow- which I can't find in the library- it
was reproduced in one of John Gribbens books and I think a book claled
the "1982 CO2 review". I think there 6 diagrams and I remember Tom
Wigley commenting that only the first ( millions of years) and Last (
instrumental record) had any credibility.

John


Professor John Mitchell OBE FRS Chief Scientist, 
Met Office FitzRoy Road  Exeter  EX1 3PB  United Kingdom
Tel. +44(0)1392884604  Fax:+44 (0) 870 9005050
E-mail: john.f.mitchell@metoffice.gov.uk http://www.metoffice.gov.uk



-----Original Message-----
From: Jenkins, Geoff 
Sent: 04 January 2007 12:11
To: Mitchell, John FB (Chief Scientist)
Cc: 'Warrilow, David (GA)'; 'Phil Jones'
Subject: RE: Some help need if possible

John

Can you throw any light on the source of the lower panel in fig 7.1
(page 202) of the first (and best) IPCC science report?  As a champion
of all things palaeo I guess you would have been "involved" in using it?

Good to see you and Catriona last week - Happy New Year. 

Geoff

-----Original Message-----
From: Warrilow, David (GA) [mailto:David.Warrilow@defra.gsi.gov.uk]
Sent: 04 January 2007 10:50
To: 'Phil Jones'
Cc: Jenkins, Geoff; Geoff Jenkins (E-mail 3)
Subject: RE: Some help need if possible


Phil,

I know the DoE booklet you mean - one of the first we produced. 
In fact I have just found the 3d Edition and it includes the said
graphs. But I am sure the diagrams came from one of the sources
mentioned. In fact the first version of the booklet was prepared by
Geoff Jenkins, so he may know the specific source - Geoff? - the diagram
is Figure 7.1 in the WG1 in the first IPCC report.

David

  

  
-----Original Message-----
From: Phil Jones [mailto:p.jones@uea.ac.uk]
Sent: 04 January 2007 10:00
To: David Warrilow; Warrilow, David (GA)
Subject: Re: Some help need if possible



  David,
    Thanks. I've looked at the 1979 version and there is something like
  the figure in it (Figure 45 in the book). It is different as it has
the
  20th century clearly warmer than the MWP. I will see if I can
  find someone who has the 1986 edition (in case it is different).
      Imbrie and Imbrie say they adapted Lamb (1969), but I can easily
  find this - and it isn't there, so is quite an adaption! I think it
must
  come from Hubert's 'English' temperature history!

     I recall a Dept of the Environment report from about 1988/89,
  see Chris's email and this is his memory as well. Can you
  have one further think?  I spoke to Chris again yesterday about
  the 2007 forecast. I'm now trying to get people to contact the
  Met Office. I just spoke to the Independent for their New Year's
  Day issue about what 2007 might be like. With a moderate
  El Nino there is a good chance it will be warmer than 1998.

  Back to the Figure.

     The skeptics keep referring to this curve, saying it was
  in the First IPCC report, but then disappeared in the SAR and
  TAR. The SAR had Bradley and Jones (1993) and the TAR
   Mann et al (1998, 1999, plus other papers) both of which quantified 
things for
  the first time. They keep saying that IPCC has lost the MWP, so
  just trying to show that the 1990 version wasn't based on
  anything more than what Lamb used to call 'analyst's opinion'.
  He seems to have liked this phrase and used it in a number
  of papers.

  Cheers
  Phil


At 21:46 03/01/2007, David Warrilow wrote:
>Phil,
>
>I can't be sure but I think the original diagram is from Imbrie and 
>Imbrie
:
>Imbrie, John and Katherine Palmer Imbrie. Ice ages: Solving the 
>Mystery.
>Cambridge, Massachusetts: Harvard University Press, 1979, 1986
(reprint). 
>ISBN 0-89490-020-X; ISBN 0-89490-015-3; ISBN 0-674-44075-7. p. 25
>
>You may have it in your library. I am afraid I don't have it to hand,
>
>David
>
>----- Original Message ----- From: "Warrilow, David (GA)"
><David.Warrilow@defra.gsi.gov.uk>
>To: "'Phil Jones'" <p.jones@uea.ac.uk>
>Sent: Wednesday, January 03, 2007 4:56 PM
>Subject: RE: Some help need if possible
>
>
>>Phil
>>
>>I do recall your request but as I did not have a AR1 report was unable

>>to check what figure you meant. I have a copy at home so will check.
>>
>>David
>>
>>-----Original Message-----
>>From: Phil Jones [mailto:p.jones@uea.ac.uk]
>>Sent: 02 January 2007 16:25
>>To: Warrilow, David (GA)
>>Subject: Some help need if possible
>>
>>
>>  David,
>>     I tried sending this in November. See my email and the one  from 
>> Chris Folland. Do you know which Dept of the Environment  report this

>> figure in the first IPCC report came from.
>>
>>  Cheers
>>  Phil
>>
>>
>>
>>>Phil
>>>
>>>I have been asked this several times. This diagram came via David 
>>>Warrilow based on a Dept of the Environment document I never saw. It 
>>>came in at the Government Review. It was very schematic - I was just 
>>>given the diagram which seemed qualitatively reasonable at the time 
>>>so it was put in - remember there was no paleosection in 1990 as such

>>>(this decision was debated at the originating Shepperton meeting I 
>>>think) but UK wanted something in at the last knockings. Nothing 
>>>quantitative existed at the time. The diagram says its schematic of 
>>>course.
>>>
>>>I was not a lead author of the SAR chapter - I escaped to the Climate

>>>Models - Evaluation chapter! Neville Nicholls is your man there I 
>>>think.
>>>
>>>
>>>
>>>Chris
>>>
>>>Prof. Chris Folland
>>>Head of Climate Variability Research
>>>
>>>Met Office, Hadley Centre, Fitzroy Rd, Exeter, Devon  EX1 3PB United 
>>>Kingdom
>>>Email: chris.folland@metoffice.gov.uk
>>>Tel: +44 (0)1392 886646
>>>Fax: (in UK)  0870 900 5050
>>>         (International) +44 (0)113 336 1072) 
>>><http://www.metoffice.gov.uk> Fellow of the Met Office
>>>Hon. Professor of School of Environmental Sciences, University of
East
>>>Anglia
>>>
>>>
>>>-----Original Message-----
>>>From: Phil Jones [mailto:p.jones@uea.ac.uk]
>>>Sent: 09 November 2006 10:19
>>>To: Folland, Chris
>>>Subject: A long time ago ....
>>>
>>>
>>> >  Chris,
>>>         As a result of a PAGES/CLIVAR meeting on the last few
millennia,
>>>   the workshop group are writing a summary paper. Given the somewhat
>>>   renewed (by skeptics) interest in Fig 7.1 of the First IPCC 
>>>Report, can
>>>   you recall where the schematic of the last 1000 years came from.
>>>   My recollection is Dept Of Environment 'glossy' (pre DETR and
DEFRA)
>>>   from about 1989. Are you able to track this down? I just need the
>>>   source. I think it is a schematic - i.e. not based on data.
>>>
>>>      In the SAR, you referred to the paper by Bradley and Jones
(1993),
>>>   which was based on decadal data from 10 or 12 proxy records.
>>>
>>>       The figure was shown in the background info to the awful piece
>>>   in the Sunday Telegraph last weekend.  In the background Monckton
>>>   replotted the curve, said it was Europe (and then gave it the
average
>>>   temperature of Central England)!
>>>
>>>       No rush, we can discuss this at the ETCCDI meeting next week.
See
>>>   you then.
>>>
>>>   Cheers
>>>   Phil
>>>
>>>
>>>
>>>
>>>Prof. Phil Jones
>>>Climatic Research Unit        Telephone +44 (0) 1603 592090
>>>School of Environmental Sciences    Fax +44 (0) 1603 507784
>>>University of East Anglia
>>>Norwich                          Email    p.jones@uea.ac.uk
>>>NR4 7TJ
>>>UK
>>>---------------------------------------------------------------------
>>>---
>>>----
>>
>>Prof. Phil Jones
>>Climatic Research Unit        Telephone +44 (0) 1603 592090
>>School of Environmental Sciences    Fax +44 (0) 1603 507784
>>University of East Anglia
>>Norwich                          Email    p.jones@uea.ac.uk
>>NR4 7TJ
>>UK
>>----------------------------------------------------------------------
>>----
--
>>Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs (Defra)
>>
>>This email and any attachments is intended for the named recipient 
>>only. If you have received it in error you have no authority to use, 
>>disclose, store or copy any of its contents and you should destroy it 
>>and inform the sender. Whilst this email and associated attachments 
>>will have been checked for known viruses whilst within Defra systems 
>>we can accept no responsibility once it has left our systems.
>>Communications on Defra's computer systems may be monitored and/or
>>recorded to secure the effective operation of the system and for other
>>lawful purposes.
>

Prof. Phil Jones
Climatic Research Unit        Telephone +44 (0) 1603 592090
School of Environmental Sciences    Fax +44 (0) 1603 507784
University of East Anglia
Norwich                          Email    p.jones@uea.ac.uk
NR4 7TJ
UK 
------------------------------------------------------------------------
----
