date: Wed, 24 May 2006 14:05:17 +0100
from: peter.stott@metoffice.gov.uk
subject: BP briefing
to: t.osborn@uea.ac.uk, k.briffa@uea.ac.uk

Dear Tim and Keith

I have to give a presentation to senior BP Executives next Wednesday
(list is
Steven E. Koonin Chief Scientist
Joseph P. Merlini, Director Strategic Cooperation
Chris J. Mottershead, Distinguished Advisor, Energy  & the Environment
John K. Wells, Vice President Environment 
Duncan G.M. Eggar, Senior Business Advisor & Team Leader -Sustainable
Mobility)
answering amongst other questions the following question

"Many papers published in the past few years show that the MBH record
very likely under-estimates temperature variability over the past 1500
years.  Presumably the GCMs were able to reproduce (or were tuned to)
the low MBH variability.  How do they have to be modified to reproduce
the greater variability? What implications does that have for
attribution and predictions going forward?"

Figures 6.10 and Fig 6.13 of the IPCC AR4 would be useful but of course
they are still under wraps. Alternatively the latest equivalent I have
is from Mann et al, EOS, 84, 256-258, 2003 but this does not include
series like Moberg 2005. Do you know whether there is a more recent
equivalent published like Fig 6.10 and 6.13 ?

Many thanks for any help or pointers,
Peter

-- ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
 Dr. Peter Stott   Climate Scientist   Met Office
 Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research (Reading Unit)
 Meteorology Building,  University of Reading, Reading RG6 6BB
 Tel: +44 (0)118 378 5613   Fax: +44 (0)118 378 5615
 Mobile: 07753880683 
 E-mail:peter.stott@metoffice.gov.uk   http://www.metoffice.gov.uk
 NOTE WILL ALSO BE AT EXETER PART OF EACH WEEK         
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

