date: Mon Feb 12 16:33:31 2001
from: Keith Briffa <k.briffa@uea.ac.uk>
subject: Fwd: Re: Hockey Sticks again
to: t.Osborn@uea.ac.uk


     From: Onar m <onar@netpower.no>
     To: "Douglas V Hoyt" <dhoyt1@erols.com>,
             "John L. Daly" <daly@microtech.com.au>,
             "Chick Keller" <ckeller@igpp.ucsd.edu>
     Cc: "P. Dietze" <p_dietze@t-online.de>,
             <mmaccrac@usgcrp.gov>,
             "Michael E Mann" <mann@virginia.edu>,
             <rbradley@geo.umass.edu>,
             <wallace@atmos.washington.edu>,
             "Thomas Crowley" <tom@ocean.tamu.edu>,
             "Phil Jones" <p.jones@uea.ac.uk>,
             <sfbtett@meto.govt.uk>,
             <daly@vision.net.au>,
             <jarl.ahlbeck@abo.fi>,
             <richard@courtney01.compulink.co.uk>,
             "McKitrick" <rmckit@css.uoguelph.ca>,
             "Bjarnason" <agust@rt.is>,
             "Harry Priem" <priem@dds.nl>,
             <vinmary.gray@paradise.net.nz>,
             <balberts@nas.edu>,
             "Martin Manning" <m.manning@niwa.cri.nz>,
             "Albert Arking" <arking@jhu.edu>,
             "Sallie Baliunas" <baliunas@cfa.harvard.edu>,
             "Jack Barrett" <100436.3604@compuserve.com>,
             "Sonja Boehmer-Cristianse" <sonja.b-c@geo.hull.ac.uk>,
             "Nigel Calder" <nc@windstream.demon.co.uk>,
             "John Christy" <christy@atmos.uah.edu>,
             <cpaynter@greeningearthsociety.org>,
             <driessen@global-commpartners.net>,
             <dwojick@shentel.net>,
             "Myron Ebell" <mebell@cei.org>,
             "Ellsaesser" <hughel@home.com>,
             "John Emsley" <j.emsley@ic.ac.uk>,
             "Jim Goodridge" <jdg@mcn.org>,
             <gsharp@montereybay.com>,
             "Peter Holle" <cog@escape.ca>,
             "W. S. Hughes" <wsh@unite.com.au>,
             Wibjrn Karln <wibjorn.karlen@natgeo.su.se>,
             "Chick Keller" <ckeller@igpp.ucsd.edu>,
             <kidso@hotmail.com>,
             "KIrill Kondratyev" <kirill.kondratyev@niersc.spb.ru>,
             "Dr. Theodor Landscheidt" <theodor.landscheidt@ns.sympatico.ca>,
             "Ross McKitrick" <rmckitri@uoguelph.ca>,
             "omcshane" <omcshane@wk.planet.gen.nz>,
             "Pat Michaels" <pmichael@cato.org>,
             <pbrekke@esa.nascom.nasa.gov>,
             "David M. Ritson" <dmr@SLAC.Stanford.EDU>,
             <robert.balling@asu.edu>,
             "Tom Segalstad" <t.v.segalstad@toyen.uio.no>,
             "Fred Singer" <singer@sepp.org>,
             "Roy Spencer" <roy.spencer@msfc.nasa.gov>,
             "Hartwig Volz" <Hartwig.Volz@rwedea.de>,
             "Gerd-Rainer Weber" <gerd-rainer.weber@gvst.de>,
             <tlowery@ocean.tamu.edu>,
             "Rosanne D'Arrigo" <druidrd@Ideo.columbia.edu>,
             <k.briffa@uea.ac.uk>
     Subject: Re: Hockey Sticks again
     Date: Mon, 12 Feb 2001 03:47:50 +0100
     X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.00.2919.6700
     > Studies have shown that about 8% of the year-to-year temperature variance
     at
     > a typical location can be said to be in common with the global temperature
     > variations. If half is natural and half is greenhouse warming, then a
     global
     > warming advocate could argue 4% of the yearly local variations are
     > anthropogenic. If 30 Kyotos are needed to reduce the 4% to 0%, then one
     > Kyoto only effects 0.13% of the year to year variations. This is just
     > another statement that the Kyoto Protocol would have no measureable
     > benefits.
     Doug,
     if the 8% figure is accurate (and not itself a meaningless average!) then
     this
     argument alone crushes almost all arguments for preventive actions. It
     leaves
     only one meaningful argument left in favor of preventive actions, namely
     rising sea levels, and
     that's a problem we can wait 50 years before we need to address.
     I'm surprised that this line of reasoning has not received more attention.
     Once you
     realize that it's not anthropogenic climate change per se we need to
     quantify, but the degree to
     which it is noticable in various time scales on the background of natural
     climate noise, it all becomes
     so obvious. The very fact that IPCC has struggled for 10 years now to show
     with some degree of
     certainty that we have changed the GLOBAL climate is very revealing, because
     if there is problems
     detecting a human fingerprint in the global average climate, how hard must
     it not be to detect it on a
     local scale which is far more noisy?
     Onar.

   --
   Dr. Keith Briffa, Climatic Research Unit, University of East Anglia,
   Norwich, NR4 7TJ, United Kingdom
   Phone: +44-1603-593909    Fax: +44-1603-507784
