cc: k.briffa@uea
date: Wed, 16 Feb 2000 12:19:43 +0000
from: Tim Osborn <t.osborn@uea.ac.uk>
subject: Re: Tree-Rings (fwd)
to: Mat Collins <matcollins@meto.gov.uk>

Dear Mat

now the EU proposal is out of the way, I can get down to work!

I've built a new NH reconstruction using the age-banded density series from
all the regions, EXCEPT the NSIB region for which I use the
Hugershoff-standardised series.  The file is attached - should be same
format as before.  The statistics that you need are:

1881-1960
r(temp,recon)  = 0.67
rmse           = 0.1923
lag-1 autocorrelation of residuals = 0.44

These statistics are slightly different to the proper age-banded NH series
(they are somewhat worse now that the Hugershoff series is used for NSIB).

Still working on the manuscript.

Cheers

Tim


Calibrated against observed Apr-Sep temperature over 1881-1960
averaged over all land grid boxes north of 20N

NSIB series was replaced by the Hugershoff standardised version!

Year  Reconstructed temperature anomaly (degrees C wrt 1961-90)
1402    -0.320
1403    -0.375
1404    -0.316
1405    -0.335
1406    -0.275
1407    -0.221
1408    -0.330
1409    -0.251
1410    -0.216
1411    -0.218
1412    -0.278
1413    -0.223
1414    -0.387
1415    -0.375
1416    -0.306
1417    -0.208
1418    -0.223
1419    -0.313
1420    -0.334
1421    -0.380
1422    -0.420
1423    -0.341
1424    -0.271
1425    -0.139
1426    -0.419
1427    -0.295
1428    -0.358
1429    -0.362
1430    -0.319
1431    -0.210
1432    -0.244
1433    -0.194
1434    -0.188
1435    -0.360
1436    -0.452
1437    -0.160
1438    -0.320
1439    -0.236
1440    -0.396
1441    -0.213
1442    -0.180
1443    -0.166
1444    -0.377
1445    -0.210
1446    -0.359
1447    -0.384
1448    -0.355
1449    -0.388
1450    -0.216
1451    -0.243
1452    -0.292
1453    -0.558
1454    -0.322
1455    -0.346
1456    -0.248
1457    -0.253
1458    -0.397
1459    -0.402
1460    -0.309
1461    -0.319
1462    -0.373
1463    -0.350
1464    -0.187
1465    -0.247
1466    -0.334
1467    -0.315
1468    -0.282
1469    -0.272
1470    -0.311
1471    -0.191
1472    -0.214
1473    -0.121
1474    -0.397
1475    -0.402
1476    -0.240
1477    -0.190
1478    -0.022
1479    -0.210
1480    -0.501
1481    -0.533
1482    -0.361
1483    -0.506
1484    -0.400
1485    -0.267
1486    -0.257
1487    -0.420
1488    -0.249
1489    -0.290
1490    -0.553
1491    -0.260
1492    -0.155
1493    -0.283
1494    -0.373
1495    -0.546
1496    -0.364
1497    -0.325
1498    -0.341
1499    -0.253
1500    -0.157
1501    -0.433
1502    -0.303
1503    -0.047
1504    -0.068
1505    -0.423
1506    -0.313
1507    -0.513
1508    -0.222
1509    -0.357
1510    -0.309
1511    -0.297
1512    -0.194
1513    -0.256
1514    -0.531
1515    -0.361
1516    -0.496
1517    -0.242
1518    -0.262
1519    -0.233
1520    -0.160
1521    -0.427
1522    -0.357
1523    -0.582
1524    -0.413
1525    -0.204
1526    -0.310
1527    -0.312
1528    -0.289
1529    -0.385
1530    -0.379
1531    -0.503
1532    -0.332
1533    -0.578
1534    -0.255
1535    -0.450
1536    -0.470
1537    -0.286
1538    -0.516
1539    -0.418
1540    -0.533
1541    -0.410
1542    -0.575
1543    -0.392
1544    -0.324
1545    -0.369
1546    -0.337
1547    -0.140
1548    -0.439
1549    -0.407
1550    -0.027
1551    -0.124
1552    -0.099
1553    -0.257
1554    -0.287
1555    -0.105
1556    -0.162
1557    -0.401
1558    -0.217
1559    -0.493
1560    -0.287
1561    -0.146
1562    -0.221
1563    -0.277
1564    -0.372
1565    -0.151
1566    -0.254
1567    -0.317
1568    -0.381
1569    -0.415
1570    -0.426
1571    -0.417
1572    -0.612
1573    -0.288
1574    -0.424
1575    -0.273
1576    -0.558
1577    -0.475
1578    -0.462
1579    -0.464
1580    -0.451
1581    -0.363
1582    -0.302
1583    -0.314
1584    -0.251
1585    -0.518
1586    -0.349
1587    -0.543
1588    -0.455
1589    -0.434
1590    -0.332
1591    -0.325
1592    -0.339
1593    -0.229
1594    -0.545
1595    -0.388
1596    -0.384
1597    -0.389
1598    -0.091
1599    -0.043
1600    -0.280
1601    -0.999
1602    -0.256
1603    -0.319
1604    -0.509
1605    -0.311
1606    -0.599
1607    -0.449
1608    -0.759
1609    -0.598
1610    -0.666
1611    -0.440
1612    -0.674
1613    -0.327
1614    -0.475
1615    -0.459
1616    -0.542
1617    -0.264
1618    -0.400
1619    -0.459
1620    -0.391
1621    -0.512
1622    -0.661
1623    -0.482
1624    -0.404
1625    -0.455
1626    -0.528
1627    -0.525
1628    -0.574
1629    -0.585
1630    -0.302
1631    -0.373
1632    -0.166
1633    -0.271
1634    -0.381
1635    -0.175
1636    -0.142
1637    -0.219
1638    -0.333
1639    -0.319
1640    -0.331
1641    -1.049
1642    -0.899
1643    -0.963
1644    -0.579
1645    -0.456
1646    -0.487
1647    -0.418
1648    -0.247
1649    -0.479
1650    -0.211
1651    -0.240
1652    -0.487
1653    -0.238
1654    -0.294
1655    -0.364
1656    -0.327
1657    -0.320
1658    -0.363
1659    -0.142
1660    -0.207
1661    -0.185
1662    -0.389
1663    -0.417
1664    -0.310
1665    -0.453
1666    -0.857
1667    -0.857
1668    -0.821
1669    -0.776
1670    -0.860
1671    -0.428
1672    -0.405
1673    -0.635
1674    -0.660
1675    -0.794
1676    -0.538
1677    -0.722
1678    -0.766
1679    -0.765
1680    -0.648
1681    -0.355
1682    -0.534
1683    -0.408
1684    -0.329
1685    -0.632
1686    -0.148
1687    -0.469
1688    -0.343
1689    -0.218
1690    -0.232
1691    -0.208
1692    -0.500
1693    -0.255
1694    -0.318
1695    -0.914
1696    -0.761
1697    -0.674
1698    -0.990
1699    -0.981
1700    -0.589
1701    -0.820
1702    -0.480
1703    -0.365
1704    -0.389
1705    -0.495
1706    -0.286
1707    -0.216
1708    -0.457
1709    -0.432
1710    -0.255
1711    -0.356
1712    -0.308
1713    -0.264
1714    -0.384
1715    -0.268
1716    -0.376
1717    -0.323
1718    -0.255
1719    -0.197
1720    -0.107
1721    -0.417
1722     0.005
1723    -0.190
1724    -0.232
1725    -0.476
1726    -0.392
1727    -0.236
1728    -0.105
1729    -0.248
1730    -0.602
1731    -0.706
1732    -0.455
1733    -0.368
1734    -0.112
1735    -0.332
1736    -0.296
1737    -0.199
1738    -0.556
1739    -0.309
1740    -0.685
1741    -0.548
1742    -0.791
1743    -0.377
1744    -0.350
1745    -0.419
1746    -0.486
1747    -0.159
1748    -0.367
1749    -0.326
1750    -0.159
1751    -0.315
1752    -0.207
1753    -0.209
1754    -0.327
1755    -0.309
1756    -0.178
1757    -0.289
1758    -0.378
1759    -0.314
1760    -0.323
1761    -0.243
1762    -0.395
1763    -0.291
1764    -0.422
1765    -0.338
1766    -0.205
1767    -0.400
1768    -0.534
1769    -0.329
1770    -0.310
1771    -0.237
1772    -0.515
1773    -0.360
1774    -0.029
1775    -0.258
1776    -0.182
1777    -0.286
1778    -0.166
1779    -0.508
1780    -0.305
1781    -0.242
1782    -0.177
1783    -0.760
1784    -0.151
1785    -0.139
1786    -0.150
1787    -0.417
1788    -0.160
1789    -0.213
1790    -0.608
1791    -0.113
1792    -0.098
1793     0.002
1794     0.009
1795    -0.226
1796     0.031
1797    -0.545
1798    -0.039
1799    -0.211
1800    -0.245
1801    -0.352
1802    -0.085
1803     0.043
1804     0.071
1805    -0.050
1806    -0.266
1807    -0.044
1808    -0.211
1809    -0.426
1810    -0.585
1811    -0.366
1812    -0.432
1813    -0.499
1814    -0.445
1815    -0.598
1816    -0.822
1817    -0.846
1818    -0.644
1819    -0.663
1820    -0.271
1821    -0.349
1822    -0.141
1823    -0.194
1824    -0.245
1825    -0.226
1826    -0.103
1827    -0.249
1828    -0.003
1829    -0.065
1830    -0.151
1831    -0.022
1832    -0.591
1833    -0.623
1834    -0.133
1835    -0.627
1836    -0.748
1837    -0.722
1838    -0.347
1839    -0.240
1840    -0.131
1841    -0.060
1842    -0.311
1843    -0.421
1844    -0.069
1845    -0.398
1846     0.113
1847    -0.046
1848    -0.316
1849    -0.361
1850    -0.232
1851    -0.110
1852    -0.101
1853    -0.157
1854    -0.122
1855    -0.404
1856    -0.244
1857    -0.526
1858    -0.120
1859    -0.170
1860    -0.226
1861    -0.020
1862    -0.583
1863    -0.268
1864    -0.397
1865    -0.258
1866    -0.443
1867    -0.410
1868    -0.109
1869    -0.267
1870    -0.198
1871    -0.345
1872    -0.173
1873    -0.169
1874    -0.351
1875    -0.227
1876    -0.477
1877    -0.196
1878     0.122
1879    -0.153
1880    -0.340
1881    -0.162
1882    -0.199
1883    -0.178
1884    -0.725
1885    -0.529
1886    -0.462
1887    -0.270
1888    -0.264
1889    -0.134
1890    -0.332
1891    -0.330
1892    -0.127
1893    -0.287
1894    -0.136
1895    -0.141
1896    -0.220
1897    -0.009
1898     0.084
1899    -0.566
1900    -0.192
1901    -0.034
1902    -0.281
1903    -0.146
1904    -0.202
1905    -0.279
1906    -0.020
1907    -0.408
1908    -0.052
1909    -0.219
1910    -0.132
1911    -0.187
1912    -0.635
1913    -0.146
1914    -0.297
1915    -0.064
1916    -0.293
1917    -0.313
1918    -0.464
1919    -0.009
1920    -0.265
1921    -0.106
1922    -0.026
1923    -0.312
1924    -0.151
1925    -0.259
1926    -0.121
1927    -0.182
1928    -0.023
1929    -0.170
1930     0.091
1931     0.103
1932     0.071
1933    -0.072
1934     0.007
1935    -0.049
1936    -0.020
1937     0.054
1938     0.156
1939    -0.093
1940     0.107
1941    -0.215
1942     0.121
1943     0.040
1944    -0.088
1945     0.037
1946    -0.019
1947    -0.195
1948    -0.053
1949    -0.114
1950    -0.272
1951    -0.111
1952    -0.126
1953     0.146
1954    -0.231
1955    -0.135
1956    -0.320
1957    -0.193
1958    -0.305
1959    -0.231
1960     0.074
1961    -0.112
1962    -0.309
1963    -0.180
1964    -0.483
1965    -0.494
1966    -0.178
1967    -0.207
1968    -0.610
1969    -0.375
1970    -0.358
1971    -0.344
1972    -0.568
1973    -0.274
1974    -0.347
1975    -0.523
1976    -0.558
1977    -0.374
1978    -0.715
1979    -0.302
1980    -0.614
1981    -0.204
1982    -0.541
1983    -0.251
1984    -0.337
1985    -0.421
1986    -0.437
1987    -0.450
1988    -0.180
1989    -0.297
1990    -0.319
1991    -0.173
1992    -0.175
1993    -0.341
1994    -0.320

Dr Timothy J Osborn                 | phone:    +44 1603 592089
Senior Research Associate           | fax:      +44 1603 507784
Climatic Research Unit              | e-mail:   t.osborn@uea.ac.uk
School of Environmental Sciences    | web-site: 
University of East Anglia __________|   http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/~timo/
Norwich  NR4 7TJ         | sunclock:
UK                       |   http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/~timo/sunclock.htm
