date: Wed, 27 Sep 2006 18:10:03 +0100
from: "Saffron O'Neill" <s.o-neill@uea.ac.uk>
subject: Re: Expert elicitation and polar bears
to: "Tim Osborn" <t.osborn@uea.ac.uk>

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Hi Tim

Yes, fair point. I've got 9 hours on the train to and from Newcastle 
tomorrow so I'll muse over it in more detail then!

How's the modelling going? Is it in the format you expected?

Saffron
----- Original Message ----- 
From: "Tim Osborn" <t.osborn@uea.ac.uk>
To: "Saffron O'Neill" <s.o-neill@uea.ac.uk>; "Irene Lorenzoni" 
<I.Lorenzoni@uea.ac.uk>; "Mike Hulme" <M.Hulme@uea.ac.uk>
Sent: Wednesday, September 27, 2006 9:06 AM
Subject: Re: Expert elicitation and polar bears


> Hi Saffron,
>
> your document makes a reasonable case for this approach.  Obviously you 
> can't be more explicit about the material you will present to them yet, 
> until we've had a look together at the IPCC model results that I'm 
> extracting.  But perhaps you can already be a bit more explicit about the 
> question(s) you will be asking them?  What precisely do you want this 
> expert group to make their judgements on?
>
> Cheers
>
> Tim
>
> At 18:06 26/09/2006, Saffron O'Neill wrote:
>>Dear Irene, Mike and Tim
>>
>>Thanks for all your individual comments so far on operationalising the 
>>icons. To update:
>>
>>Irene has suggested that a produce a quick intro to how I plan to 
>>operationalise the polar bear icon. At the moment, the plan is to use an 
>>expert elicitation. Tim has kindly agreed to investigate the use of some 
>>sea ice models and hopefully this will be completed in the near future.
>>
>>An expert elicitation can be a really time-consuming process so I need to 
>>get it underway quickly if I'm to be able to present this information to 
>>the public in stage 3 by the new year!
>>
>>I've attached my justification for expert elicitation, including a brief 
>>explanation of how this may be carried out. I've also included a very 
>>brief lit. review of exactly what I am calling an expert elicitation in 
>>this context, with pros and cons.
>>
>>As usual, I'd appreciate any feedback! Could we (Irene and Mike) meet to 
>>discuss this proposal, perhaps on Friday, or next week?
>>
>>I'm at the Tyndall away day tomorrow and off to Newcastle on Thursday to 
>>meet Jim Hall and Rich Dawson to discuss the London icon, so apologies if 
>>this is a little rough round the edges - I wanted to get it off ASAP.
>>
>>Saffron
>>
>>
>>
>
> Dr Timothy J Osborn, Academic Fellow
> Climatic Research Unit
> School of Environmental Sciences, University of East Anglia
> Norwich  NR4 7TJ, UK
>
> e-mail:   t.osborn@uea.ac.uk
> phone:    +44 1603 592089
> fax:      +44 1603 507784
> web:      http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/~timo/
> sunclock: http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/~timo/sunclock.htm
>
> **Norwich -- City for Science:
> **Hosting the BA Festival 2-9 September 2006
>
> 

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