date: Thu Mar 18 14:12:06 2004
from: Phil Jones <p.jones@uea.ac.uk>
subject: Re: minor alteration
to: "Tas van Ommen" <tas.van.ommen@utas.edu.au>

    Tas,
       Will keep in touch. Will send paper when we get a pdf/reprint.
    I'll look at the annual data when I have some time. Meetings all next week need preparing
    for and then the April weeks after Easter as well. Not sure when I'll get to it, but I
   will
    sometime.
    Cheers
    Phil
   At 22:07 18/03/2004 +1100, you wrote:

     G'day Phil,
     Sounds like you are on firm ground if you used the series I sent last year - 4 year
     resolution will not harm the decadal scale smoothing even if it makes annual correlation
     somewhat questionable. You need not be worried if you only used my 2003 data - it is
     based on the best data we have, which are indeed a multi-core stack over much of the
     calibration period (the header notes from the file give details).
     This still leaves a point of question over your relatively high r value, and this may be
     because of the underlying 4 year smooth in your "annual" data. I would recommend that
     you look at the annual data I sent earlier today and confirm what is going on.
     As a point of interest, my calibration exercise is revealing that the Law Dome d18O is
     capturing comparable variance in the mid-latitude SLP field  in the eastern Indian Ocean
     to the local temperature signal near Law Dome. Not surprising when one appreciates the
     role of cyclonic transport.
     Do keep  in touch - I am happy to help however I can to ensure the best fidelity in our
     contribution to the paleo-reconstruction.
     Cheers,
     Tas
     -----Original Message-----
         From: "Phil Jones"<p.jones@uea.ac.uk>
         Sent: 18/03/04 20:13:27
         To: "Tas van Ommen"<tas.van.ommen@utas.edu.au>
         Subject: Re: minor alteration


         >  Tas,
                 Attached is the series I've used. It does look quite smooth, so it
         seems to be
           the 4-yr smoothed one you mention. So it seems the annual correlation I
         talk about
           for 1957-80 is based on this against the HadCRUT2v series. Both then get
         smoothed
           with the 10-yr Gaussian filter I talked about yesterday. The fact that
         the Law Dome series
           I have is already smoothed won't make too much difference to this.
               I have the old series also, but never compared the two. I say I have
         it, but it is in an
           old directory somewhere. Just found it and it has years 1304-1987. Didn't
         use it though
           as it was elsewhere and I gave it a different name then.

               So, I think we're OK. If I understand correctly the del18O data for
         1957-99 is based on
           3 series and maybe more for this time. What I've been using is just one
         of these, which goes
           back 2K years - ends in 1995, and is smoothed.

               The reason HadCRUT2v isn't exactly like Jo Jacka's series is the
         variance correction
           that gets done. This uses the residuals from a 30-year filter for each
         month separately, reducing
           the anomaly (from the filter) from a single obs in the box to the
         infinitely sampled one. Values
           further from the filter get reduced more than one closer. Upshot will be
         that the annual series
           will differ a little, but as the 30-year filtered series get added back,
         the smoothed series will
           get closer and closer to the original as you smooth more. All in a paper
         in J. Climate in 1997.

              Still doesn't explain why my r-values are as high as they are.
         Smoothing must be the
           answer and the period 1957-80.

              I wasn't worried as I knew I'd used the latest one from last May.
         Should I be worried?

           Cheers
           Phil




         Prof. Phil Jones
         Climatic Research Unit        Telephone +44 (0) 1603 592090
         School of Environmental Sciences    Fax +44 (0) 1603 507784
         University of East Anglia
         Norwich                          Email    p.jones@uea.ac.uk
         NR4 7TJ
         UK

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   Prof. Phil Jones
   Climatic Research Unit        Telephone +44 (0) 1603 592090
   School of Environmental Sciences    Fax +44 (0) 1603 507784
   University of East Anglia
   Norwich                          Email    p.jones@uea.ac.uk
   NR4 7TJ
   UK
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