date: Thu Jun 23 11:41:25 2005
from: Phil Jones <p.jones@uea.ac.uk>
subject: Re: Fwd: Dave Keeling
to: Ian.Sample@guardian.co.uk

    Ian,
       I'm not an expert in this, so I'd try and get someone else, but I'll try.
    I think the confusion is due to the natural and the enhanced (i.e. the human
    induced part) of the greenhouse effect. Natural here is why the mean
    temperature of the Earth is 14 deg C and not 30 degs cooler.
    Water Vapour is the main component of the natural greenhouse effect.
    Water Vapour is about 60-70% of the total if the sky were clear.  CO2 is
    about 25%.  The water vapour contribution is virtually impossible to
    measure and it depends on which lines in the absorption spectra get
    saturated.
    The additional CO2 since pre-industrial times is about 62% of the human-induced
    part.  The rest (38%) is CH4, N2O, CFCs etc.
     So, they likely refer to different things: whether you include the natural greenhouse
    effect and whether you include water vapour.
    Cheers
    Phil
   At 10:18 23/06/2005, you wrote:

     Phil, hi,
     Thanks for the message and the email. We heard the news about Keeling after
     trying to track him down for a comment. I believe we're going to be doing
     an obit - at least I have pushed for it. I'm going to look again at the
     piece I've done - it's more a very very selective skip through some of the
     key milestones from Arrhenius onwards rather than a piece on Keeling
     himself.
     Incidentally, I wondered if you might be able to help me clear something
     up. I'm trying to check a figure for the %age contribution of CO2 to the
     greenhouse effect. I found figures attributing around 60% to atmospheric
     water vapour, but there seem to be two figures for CO2 - either around 25%
     or around 62%. If it's 62% (as a noaa guy told me last night), it means the
     water figure must be wrong. I'm wondering if there's a bit of confusion in
     that maybe the figs refer to different things. Might you know someone who
     can clarify what the contribution is?
     It'd be great if there's anyone who can help!
     With thanks again,
     Ian


                           Phil
     Jones

                           <p.jones@uea.ac.         To:
     ian.sample@guardian.co.uk
                           uk>
     cc:
                                                    Subject: Fwd: Dave
     Keeling
                           23/06/05
     08:54

     am





       Ian,
          This is all I have.
        Jim Fleming is an American Historian who has written a book
       on the scientists involved in climate change work over the last few
       centuries, but mainly from Aarrhenius onwards.
          Here is his co-ordinates if you need more.
       James R. Fleming
     --
     Science, Technology and Society Program
     Colby College
     5881 Mayflower Hill
     Waterville, ME  04901-8858  USA
     Phone 207-872-3548
     Fax 207-872-3074
     Secretary 207-872-3246
     Profesional Profile: [1]http://www.colby.edu/profile/jfleming/
       "James R. Fleming" <jfleming@colby.edu>
     >Dear Alan,
     >
     >I will be sending you a complete DVD of the scanned Callendar papers, but
     >for now, can you make the minor changes indicated below in Box 1.
     >
     >Also, Dave Keeling at Scripps died Monday of a sudden heart attack.  I'm
     >sure it is news in the CRU.
     >
     >Thanks for doing this,
     >Jim Fleming
     Prof. Phil Jones
     Climatic Research Unit        Telephone +44 (0) 1603 592090
     School of Environmental Sciences    Fax +44 (0) 1603 507784
     University of East Anglia
     Norwich                          Email    p.jones@uea.ac.uk
     NR4 7TJ
     UK
     ----------------------------------------------------------------------------

   Prof. Phil Jones
   Climatic Research Unit        Telephone +44 (0) 1603 592090
   School of Environmental Sciences    Fax +44 (0) 1603 507784
   University of East Anglia
   Norwich                          Email    p.jones@uea.ac.uk
   NR4 7TJ
   UK
   ----------------------------------------------------------------------------

