date: Fri Feb  8 12:09:26 2008
from: Phil Jones <p.jones@uea.ac.uk>
subject: RE: TP Water comment
to: "Palutikof, Jean" <jean.palutikof@metoffice.gov.uk>

    Jean,
       You could add to polar with 'polar and high-elevation' as it doesn't
    apply there very well either. The comment didn't allude to that, though.
       So OK with what you plan to add.
      We did have something in an earlier draft about Dai's PC2 but
    it must have got pulled at some point.
    Cheers
    Phil
    PS  Have just briefly replied to this email - said politely read the
    IPCC reports! Said the usual IPCC assesses etc.... all the papers
    we refer to have been peer-reviewed...
    I'm supposed to help him peer review my papers !  Sent him a
    couple as a starting point and said a good source of relevant
    literature is the IPCC Reports!
    Why email me?  cc'd Susan - she's still in post for a few more months...
    What is it with people with big email tails !

   Professor Phil Jones:

   I have been researching some of your publications. I just ran across this information which
   I assume you have reviewed.
   The Inter-governmental Panel on Climate Change in its most recent report in 2007 stated:
   'Warming of the climate system is unequivocal, as is now evident from observations of
   increases in global average air and ocean temperatures, widespread melting of snow and ice,
   and rising global average sea level.'
   'Most of the observed increase in globally averaged temperatures since the mid-20th century
   is very likely due to the observed increase in anthropogenic greenhouse gas
   concentrations12. This is an advance since the TAR's conclusion that "most of the observed
   warming over the last 50 years is likely to have been due to the increase in greenhouse gas
   concentrations". Discernible human influences now extend to other aspects of climate,
   including ocean warming, continental-average temperatures, temperature extremes and wind
   patterns'
   Please explain how you reconcile the fact that the present temperature increase began at
   the end of the last ice age and that the glaciers have been melting for tens of thousands
   of years with the claim that this is being driven by 20^th century production of greenhouse
   gases? How can present release of greenhouse gases be the cause of climate change that
   happened thousands of years ago? This conclusion seems entirely unjustified if only based
   on the actual geologic record of earth history.
   Have you had a peer review on this conclusion with the geological community? This
   conclusion seems completely illogical.

   Please do explain your conclusion!

   Regards,


   Dr. Wayne Kraus, PhD
   Littleton, Colorado
     ______________________________________________________________________________________

   From: Wayne P. Kraus [[1]mailto:KrausWP@comcast.net]
   Sent: Thursday, February 07, 2008 3:52 PM
   To: 'p.jones@uea.ac.uk'
   Subject: Release of IPCC Temperature Data
   Importance: High

   Professor Phil Jones:

   A colleague and I have been researching the temperature data which IPCC has used to suggest
   the theory of man-made global warming. We have been searching for the raw data from all
   historical temperature reporting stations used to construct the IPCC temperature plot. I
   guess this has become known as the hockey stick.

   We would like to do our own analysis of the raw data. We have lots of questions about the
   data you have used. Here are a few of the questions we have.

    1. We have found the list of the 1221 USHCN stations from information posted by NCAR. We
       have noted that urban island effects began to influence the temperature readings during
       the flight to suburbia following WW II. Did you correct USHCN data to account for that
       bias?
    2. Where can we find the raw data from historical temperature instruments covering the
       oceans? The oceans cover more than 70% of the surface of the earth and we expect that
       data to show significantly less variability (data scatter) than terrestrial temperature
       stations?
    3. Where can we find the raw data for all historical temperature data outside the USA
       which you used when calculating your global average temperatures for the IPCC plot?
    4. I anticipate the distribution of temperature recording instruments in remote and third
       world nations is more sparse than in western industrial nations. How did you adjust
       your global average volumetrically? What I mean is if there are 20 USHCN instruments
       covering the entire state of Kansas and 100 USHCN instruments in the densely populated
       area near New York City, the averaging technique has to remove that kind of bias. How
       did you do this?


   In short, I would be most grateful if you will direct me to an IPCC site where I can
   retrieve the entire raw data collection you used to develop your analysis. I would also
   like to see a comprehensive report on the techniques you used to compute your global
   average temperature used in your plot.

   Based on the many comments I have seen regarding your analysis of this recent temperature
   history, I believe this data and those conclusions require greater peer review than they
   have received. I hope you will cooperate in completing the scientific process of peer
   review and verification.

   Best regards,

   Dr. Wayne Kraus, PhD
   Littleton, Colorado


   At 11:26 08/02/2008, Palutikof, Jean wrote:

     Hi Phil
     I've now had chance to read this carefully and this is very helpful, especially as we
     also had a comment on PC2 of the Dai et al analysis.
     If you're OK with this, I will insert a footnote which says:
     Note that the PDSI does not realistically model drought in regions where precipitation
     is held in the snowpack, for example, in polar regions.
     Jean
     =========================
     Dr Jean Palutikof
     Head
     IPCC WGII TSU
     Met Office, Fitzroy Road
     Exeter EX1 3PB
     United Kingdom
     Tel: +44 (0)1392 886212
     Mobile: +44 (0)7753 880737
     Fax: +44 (0)1392 885681
     Email: jean.palutikof@metoffice.gov.uk
     -----Original Message-----
     From: Phil Jones [[2]mailto:p.jones@uea.ac.uk]
     Sent: 07 February 2008 16:25
     To: Palutikof, Jean
     Subject: Re: TP Water comment
       Jean,
          Sorry for not getting back sooner.  Use as much or as little of this as you want.
       I'd like to know where this figure has been widely cited and used - but that's another
     story!
       I have looked at Dai et al (2004) and the figures come from the top half
       of their Figure 6, so this is only 6.7% of the total variance.
       The PDSI is the most widely used measure of drought in the scientific literature. The
     aim
       of the PDSI approach is develop drought series with similar characteristics in all
     parts of the world
       regardless of the precipitation and temperature climatology. So there will be
       approximately the same number of droughts in the Mediterranean as in Scandinavia. It
     is,
       therefore, a relative as opposed to an absolute measure of drought. This was all
       discussed in Box 3.1 (p261).  PDSI is therefore a non-linear transformation of the
     basic
       temperature and precipitation data. In higher latitudes, as temperature is not that
     high, PDSI
       is essentially controlled by precipitation.
     Although the Dai et al (2004) study uses a specific
       version of PDSI, later work by Wells et al
     (2004) -see Box 3.1 - shows that the self-calibrating
       PDSI reproduces much the same patterns in the major PCs within a global PDSI dataset.
     The
       self-calibrating version allows local tuning and is not reliant on the original
     version being
       developed in the Great Plains. (It is even more local than the Great Plains - Palmer
     developed
       it in Kansas!).
       The PDSI may be unrealistic at high latitudes, but this has nothing to do with
     coefficient
       determination. Instead it is unrealistic as in areas with extensive cold seasons,
     precipitation
       is held as a snowpack, so not available for runoff.  The PCA used in Dai et al (2004)
     is heavily
       biased to the tropics and mid-latitudes, as the grid-boxes here are much larger than
     in
       the polar regions.  So the pattern in the Figure (and the associated time series) is
       dominated by what is happening in the 50N to 50S zone.
       The fact that the map is dominated by the tropics is evident in Dai et al's (2004)
     PC2. The
       time series for this pattern is dominated by ENSO variability (note the correlation of
     0.62
       when it is lagged 6 months behind Darwin's mean sea level pressure).  The fact that
     PC2
       has such a clear agreement with the most well-known mode of climate variability on
       interannual-to-decadal timescales should be indicative that PC1 is indicative of the
     major
       pattern of drought variability across the world's land areas.
       Their reason for wanting changes is wrong. It is not to do with the coefficients.
       PDSI is wrong because of the cold seasons in many regions.
       I'm not being defensive, but we got loads of comments like this on the Chapter at the
       various stages. They all come from hydrologists in the US who don't like the PDSI as
       it is just too simple. I reckon I could reproduce the pattern if I took the CRU
     gridded
       precip data - smoothed it with a running 12-month smoother - and then did a PCA.
       PC1 would be the map shown.
       I've no idea how you'd chop off the higher latitudes - if you decide to go down that
     route.
       If you could chop them off, the time series would be wrong!
       Cheers
       Phil
     At 11:01 07/02/2008, you wrote:
     >Hi Phil
     >
     >Here's the comment:
     >
     >This comment was included in the previous
     >government draft, but not adequately addressed by authors.
     >"This figure has been widely cited and used, but
     >there are important caveats related to
     >determining Palmer Drought Severity Index values
     >for regions outside the region it was originally
     >developed (i.e., the U.S. Great Plains). This is
     >especially true for its application to the high
     >latitudes and polar regions, since these areas
     >have extensive permafrost, tundra, etc.
     >Determining the appropriate coefficients for
     >application to these areas is extremely suspect!
     >Please add several caveats regarding its suspect
     >application to these areas where appropriate in
     >the text. The Dai et al. (2004) study should've
     >cut the analysis at a specific latitude (60N)
     >given the issues with tundra and permafrost."
     >(Govt of USA)
     >
     >Jean
     >
     >=========================
     >Dr Jean Palutikof
     >Head
     >IPCC WGII TSU
     >Met Office, Fitzroy Road
     >Exeter EX1 3PB
     >United Kingdom
     >Tel: +44 (0)1392 886212
     >Mobile: +44 (0)7753 880737
     >Fax: +44 (0)1392 885681
     >Email: jean.palutikof@metoffice.gov.uk
     Prof. Phil Jones
     Climatic Research Unit        Telephone +44 (0) 1603 592090
     School of Environmental Sciences    Fax +44 (0) 1603 507784
     University of East Anglia
     Norwich                          Email    p.jones@uea.ac.uk
     NR4 7TJ
     UK
     ----------------------------------------------------------------------------


   Prof. Phil Jones
   Climatic Research Unit        Telephone +44 (0) 1603 592090
   School of Environmental Sciences    Fax +44 (0) 1603 507784
   University of East Anglia
   Norwich                          Email    p.jones@uea.ac.uk
   NR4 7TJ
   UK
   ----------------------------------------------------------------------------

