date: Thu Nov 11 11:00:42 2004
from: Phil Jones <p.jones@uea.ac.uk>
subject: RE: Easterling et al 97 Science paper on max and min  temperature
to: "H J Fowler" <H.J.Fowler@newcastle.ac.uk>

    Hayley,
      Sounds more interesting now !  Do keep me informed as it will be very useful
    background for the Pune workshop and also for IPCC. I'm the co-ordinating
    lead author for the Atmospheric Observations chapter for AR4 - the
    next report due in 2007. We need to have papers out or in press by
    the end of 2005 for inclusion.
       For Pune, it would be useful to know the sources of the data but the paper
    should be sufficient for this.
      China has reasonably good data and it may be worth looking at the
    trends there. There are odd things going on there (some similar to yours)
    that can be explained by local pollution. A number of cities there have
    downward trends in sunshine and in cloudiness and this causes odd
    changes in max and min trends.
      I suspect that a lot of what is seen in Easterling et al around the world
    is real, it is just that DTR is a highly sensitive measure and it has a
    lot more variability than we are fully aware of from 30-50 yr records.
    Cheers
    Phil
   At 10:23 11/11/2004, you wrote:

     Cheers Phil
     Just realised that I said entirely the wrong thing in my last e-mail -
     the exciting thing that our research using observed data back 100 years
     in the Karakoram (Upper Indus) region Pakistan shows is an *increase* in
     DTR throughout the year, and particularly in the summer season. This is
     similar to trends in northern India - but I have not found evidence of
     an increase anywhere else - and the observations are certainly contrary
     to projections of GCMs for the region (projecting decreases in DTR, as
     has been observed elsewhere on the globe).
     We are trying to find an explanation for this. In summer months both max
     and min temps are falling, but min more than max - hence increasing DTR.
     Decreasing max may be explained by increased cloudiness (increasing
     trend in summer precip in last 40 years) but cannot also explain large
     decrease in min temps? In winter, we are seeing a more regular pattern
     with warming in max (large) but different changes in min dependent on
     location - generally mean temps show significant increases in winter
     though.
     It's all very interesting and - since in this region change in summer
     temperature and winter precip are significantly linked to summer runoff
     - could have implications for water management in the region.
     We hope to resubmit to J. Climate soon so I will forward a copy of the
     paper to you before we submit - would welcome any useful comments!
     Cheers
     Hayley
     ______________________________
     Dr. Hayley Fowler
     Senior Research Associate
     Water Resource Systems Research Laboratory
     School of Civil Engineering and Geosciences
     Cassie Building
     University of Newcastle
     Newcastle upon Tyne
     NE1 7RU
     Tel: +44 (0)191 222 7113
     Fax: +44 (0)191 222 6669
     [1]http://www.staff.ncl.ac.uk/h.j.fowler/
     -----Original Message-----
     From: Phil Jones [[2]mailto:p.jones@uea.ac.uk]
     Sent: 11 November 2004 10:11
     To: H J Fowler
     Subject: Re: Easterling et al 97 Science paper on max and min
     temperature trends
       Hayley,
           Amazingly I've just managed to go on to the AAAS system and they
     have
     issues back
       this far and it didn't want any money. I think this might be as I have
     a
     subscription. I
       tried this several months ago and couldn't, so maybe they've relaxed
     their rules.
          Most places show decreases in DTR, but this isn't that strong in
     western Europe.
       There is also a paper by Frich et al. in 2002 in Climate Research -
     you
     should be
       able to get this from the journal's web page. CR is free.
           I'll be going to a workshop on extremes for S and SW Asia in Pune
     in
     Feb 05,
       so anything you find or will find will be useful. Workshop should
     bring
     people from
       the countries in the region with data to learn about homogeneity and
     extremes.
       People from Mongolia to Sri Lanka and Pakistan to China should come.
     This
       includes most of the 'stans' in what was the USSR and Afghanistan (if
     anyone from
       there comes).
          An earlier workshop was help in Turkey in October for countries
     between Iran and
       Turkey (Middle East not Africa but including the Ukraine and southern
     Russia, but
       omitting Israel). There should be a paper being prepared on this. I'm
     trying to get
       a copy of this for my Saudi student.
          A workshop is on this week in Guatemala for central America and one
     was held
       in South America. Malcolm Haylock from CRU has gone to both of these
     as
     he can
       get by in Spanish. His write up of the S. American one can be got from
     the link below.
       The aim of the workshops is similar, so a paper should appear from
     each and
       get reported on in the next IPCC Report.
       In case you are interested, the 1st draft of the Sth American rainfall
     paper is available at:
     [3]http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/~malcolmh/publications/Maceio_Rainfall_draft1.p
     df
     Some interesting findings...
       Cheers
       Phil
     At 17:30 10/11/2004, you wrote:
     >Phil
     >
     >Do you have pdf version of the Easterling et al 97 Science paper (you
     >were a co-author) on Maximum and minimum temperature trends for the
     >globe. Any other papers you know of on max/min trends - esp. diurnal
     >range and esp. showing reductions in diurnal range rather than
     >increases! - would also be gratefully received! Doing some work on
     >temperature change in the karakoram over the past 100 years and it is
     >showing some surprising results.
     >
     >Cheers
     >
     >Hayley
     >
     >______________________________
     >Dr. Hayley Fowler
     >Senior Research Associate
     >Water Resource Systems Research Laboratory
     >School of Civil Engineering and Geosciences
     >Cassie Building
     >University of Newcastle
     >Newcastle upon Tyne
     >NE1 7RU
     >
     >Tel: +44 (0)191 222 7113
     >Fax: +44 (0)191 222 6669 [4]http://www.staff.ncl.ac.uk/h.j.fowler/
     Prof. Phil Jones
     Climatic Research Unit        Telephone +44 (0) 1603 592090
     School of Environmental Sciences    Fax +44 (0) 1603 507784
     University of East Anglia
     Norwich                          Email    p.jones@uea.ac.uk
     NR4 7TJ
     UK
     ------------------------------------------------------------------------
     ----

   Prof. Phil Jones
   Climatic Research Unit        Telephone +44 (0) 1603 592090
   School of Environmental Sciences    Fax +44 (0) 1603 507784
   University of East Anglia
   Norwich                          Email    p.jones@uea.ac.uk
   NR4 7TJ
   UK
   ----------------------------------------------------------------------------

