cc: Sandy Tudhope <sandy.tudhope@ed.ac.uk>, simon Tett <simon.tett@ed.ac.uk>, Keith Briffa <k.briffa@uea.ac.uk>, Tim Osborn <t.osborn@uea.ac.uk>, Gabi Hegerl <Gabi.Hegerl@ed.ac.uk>, Chris Jones <chris.d.jones@metoffice.gov.uk>, Peter Cox <P.M.Cox@exeter.ac.uk>, Rob Allan <rob.allan@metoffice.gov.uk>, Philip Brohan <philip.brohan@metoffice.gov.uk>, Catherine Bass <C.J.Bass@exeter.ac.uk>
date: Mon Aug 10 15:27:37 2009
from: Phil Jones <p.jones@uea.ac.uk>
subject: Re: Proposed structure for Consortium Bid
to: Rob Wilson <rjsw@st-andrews.ac.uk>, Chris Turney <C.Turney@exeter.ac.uk>

    Chris et al,
       Rob's response got me thinking. I've just emailed a review paper from the Holocene. I
   think most of the others in the group have seen this, let me know if not? Some aspects of
   the consortium bid could follow up on the recommendations from the final section of this
   review. This was a PAGES funded meeting, so presumably has some clout in reviewer eyes?
      I agree it's difficult to be specific at this stage about what resources we're going to
   need. We need to have some idea of whether the modelling runs need to be costed somehow,
   and how much extra fieldwork we'll be doing. The review paper indicates that it is extra
   proxies in the SH and tropics that are needed.
      I think we have agreed on the time frame of 1600 onwards.
      Rob Wilson is aware of an initiative that Ed Cook is moving along with at the moment.
   This is to develop a set of European drought reconstructions, back as far as possible. This
   will be of PDSI, as we have a new version of the program (scPDSI - self-calibrating PDSI).
   Ed is planning to come to CRU next summer for a 6 month period. This will involve putting
   together all the drought responding trees we have across Europe. This is essentially almost
   all European trees, so would be useful for the Consortium Bid. For PDSI we'll just be using
   those that are responsive to drought.
     So for CRU/UEA the collaborators would be Ed Cook and also Gerard van der Schrier at
   KNMI, who has got the scPDSI program working. It should be fairly straightforward to get
   this program going through any GCM output.
      We have a good group thinking about the issues. We need to somehow emphasize this in the
   context of the last 400 years and the high-frequency nature of the proxies we'll be using,
   together with the improved instrumental data.  We haven't got everyone in the UK, but I
   think we have most of those who've looked at model simulations for this period, and those
   developing high-freq proxy reconstructions. We could easily use reconstructions like that
   attached along with loads of others to produce spatial reconstructions for Europe - but
   presumably MILLENNIUM will be doing this. We could also produce spatial reconstructions for
   large parts of the world, but the world and his wife are trying to do this.  Most modelling
   centres are also doing runs for the last 500 or 1000 years as well, so where does our
   expertise bring.......?
      Your analysis tasks seem fine enough. New proxies need to be very focussed and should be
   ones we really need, being in mind our combined knowledge of what is out there. We can
   probably do the mid and high lats of the NH quite well already. It is the tropics and SH
   where we need help and our collaborator's areas should emphasize that, which I think they
   will do. European instrumental temperatures in summer are going to be revised downwards (by
   about 0.4 deg C for periods before 1850), so the mid-lat of the NH reconstructions should
   reflect this new work which is either in press or submitted.
       Exactly what modelling runs we're going to do need to be better defined. So, from my
   perspective, we need to better define the objectives. I can follow c) easily. I know I
   suggested b) but we're going to need a good example of where this might be possible in
   practice. I guess it's going to come through a) but it's not that clear in my mind how this
   will be achieved? I can't see how better proxy reconstructions are going to help constrain
   the models with the carbon cycle feedbacks. This must be related to better forcing
   histories, but how do we know we have these right? Can we somehow say from proxy/model
   comparisons that if they don't agree that well that it is down to the forcing, the model
   physics or the proxy data? If we could reduce the dimensionality of the problem then this
   might help. Volcanoes are a high-frequency response, so should be doable  with shorter time
   slices. Solar and carbon cycle feedbacks are more low-frequency, so harder to constrain.
       I seem to floundering a bit. I keep coming back to the long European instrumental
   records and the wealth or proxy data we have for the continent. We can better test the
   proxy methods here and we can look at some teleconnections in detail with long records, and
   follow these through with similar analyses with the models.
    I hope this is useful - I see you're away in the Arctic till Sept 11.
    Cheers
    Phil
   At 12:28 08/08/2009, Rob Wilson wrote:

     Hi Chris,
     Greetings from Germany
     very brief comments attached.
     Just by luck I checked my e-mail today but will be out of e-mail contact over the next
     few days as I will be climbing in the Alps.
     It is difficult to be specific about what resources I would require without some
     discussion with others in project and Overseas Collaborators etc.
     However, one thing that I am currently pushing for in other proposals is funds for my
     Scottish work (brief mention in attached).
     This would make a very nice PhD and certainly will result in a TR based summer
     temperature reconstruction back to ~1600.
     I would also require funds for maximum density measurements etc etc.
     beyond that - i.e. taking a larger view, I would like to discuss with Rosanne, Ed and
     possibly even Dave Frank (Jan Esper is moving to Germany so Dave is probably the best
     WSL contact) and we could probably identify some significant mid-latitude gaps quite
     easily and those would be the target regions for new sampling = plus updating some
     "classic" sites to present.
     anyway - sorry for rushed e-mail, but like you I have a grumpy wife who thinks I should
     ignore work when on holiday!!
     regards to all
     Rob
     Chris Turney wrote:

     Hi everyone,
     We've worked up the key points that came out of the teleconference last week. Please
     find attached a suggested structure which we hope justifies a consortium bid.  See what
     you think.  Could you send me any comments (including request for resource) by Tuesday
     next week?  If happy, I'll then use this as a basis for a 2 pager which I'll circulate
     to everyone.  If you can give some thought to any resource your institution might be
     able to commit to the project (PhDs, inkind support etc), even if it's only an
     aspiration at this stage, that would be most helpful (it might help sweeten the deal
     when we approach NERC).
     Please note I'm away on holiday on Sunday but will (unpopularly!) be checking my email
     so although you'll get an auto reply saying I'm away, I will be in contact.
     All the best,
     Chris
     ****************************************************
     Professor Chris Turney FRSA FRGS
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     School of Geography
     The University of Exeter
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--
-----------------------------------------------------------------------
Dr. Rob Wilson
Lecturer in Physical Geography
School of Geography & Geosciences
University of St Andrews
St Andrews. FIFE
KY16 9AL
Scotland. U.K.
Tel: +44 01334 463914
Fax: +44 01334 463949
[7]http://www.st-andrews.ac.uk/gg/people/wilson/

".....I have wondered about trees.

They are sensitive to light, to moisture, to wind, to pressure.
Sensitivity implies sensation. Might a man feel into the soul of a tree
for these sensations? If a tree were capable of awareness, this faculty
might prove useful. "

"The Miracle Workers" by Jack Vance
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   Prof. Phil Jones
   Climatic Research Unit        Telephone +44 (0) 1603 592090
   School of Environmental Sciences    Fax +44 (0) 1603 507784
   University of East Anglia
   Norwich                          Email    p.jones@uea.ac.uk
   NR4 7TJ
   UK
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