date: Wed Apr 15 14:29:03 2009
from: Phil Jones <p.jones@uea.ac.uk>
subject: Re: Fwd: Re: contribution to RealClimate.org
to: Thomas Crowley <thomas.crowley@ed.ac.uk>

    Tom,
      To my eye the divergence starts earlier than 97/98. It seems
    to be the late 1980s. Maybe plot the difference series between these
    two. Need to place in a context and the difference series may do this.
      Knowing how the series is put together always makes me suspicious
    - and knowing what's going on with the SSTs, doubly suspicious.
    Cheers
    Phil

   At 17:45 14/04/2009, you wrote:

     Quoting P.Jones@uea.ac.uk:
     Phil,
     I will do that, but there seem to be two problems:
     1) why would it all happen in 1997-98? its hard to believe that many
     new drifters were deployed, starting just that year.
     2) there are examples of abrupt shifts in other parts of the time
     series - why should this be especially suspect?
     thanks for any additional help  on this, tom

      Tom,
        The issue Ray alludes to is that in addition to the issue
      of many more drifters providing measurements over the last
      5-10 years, the measurements are coming in from places where
      we didn't have much ship data in the past. For much of the SH
      between 40 and 60S the normals are mostly made up as there is
      very little ship data there.
        Whatever causes the divergence in your plot it is down to
      the ocean.
        You could try doing an additional plot. Download from
      the CRU web site the series for SH land. It doesn't matter if
      is from CRUTEM3 or CRUTEM3v (the former would be better). If that
      still has the divergence, then it is the oceans causing the
      problem. What you're seeing is too rapid to be real.
      Cheers
      Phil

     Phil, do you have any comments with respect to either my note sent
     yesterday to RealClimate.org, or Ray's query below?  just want to make
     sure I touch the appropriate bases before I send it back to RCO.
     thanks in advance for any help, with regards, tom
     ----- Forwarded message from rbradley@geo.umass.edu -----
          Date: Mon, 13 Apr 2009 17:17:18 -0400
          From: "raymond s. bradley" <rbradley@geo.umass.edu>
     Reply-To: "raymond s. bradley" <rbradley@geo.umass.edu>
       Subject: Re: contribution to RealClimate.org
            To: Thomas Crowley <thomas.crowley@ed.ac.uk>
            Cc: mann@psu.edu
     Hi Tom,
     The Easterling & Wehner preprint is attached.  It would be good if
     you could expand your comment to include some reflections on this.
     One cautionary note--talking to Phil Jones last week, he mentioned
     that the recent addition of SH buoy data has added data from areas of
     the globe hitherto undersampled; it may have "suppressed" the ocean
     area warming relative to land.  You might contact Phil to see if the
     rapid warming in land, but not ocean, has anything to do with
     that.  I'm always a bit nervous about the ever-changing database of
     obserevational records, particularly with the expansion of the
     network using automated instruments.  It may turn out not to be a
     relevant factor to your post, but something to ponder, nevertheless...
     Ray
     At 11:48 AM 4/13/2009, you wrote:

     Dear Mike and Ray,
     attached is a contribution to your website about trends in global
     temperatures.
     I realize that you often do not have outsiders comment, but as I
     explain in my note, the results I show are quite striking and
     illustrated in a different way than some (many?) may have seen.
     Since the figure illustrates something of wide interest, I hope you
     can make an exception to your normal rules.
     With regards, Tom
     --
     The University of Edinburgh is a charitable body, registered in
     Scotland, with registration number SC005336.

     ----- End forwarded message -----
     --
     The University of Edinburgh is a charitable body, registered in
     Scotland, with registration number SC005336.

     --
     The University of Edinburgh is a charitable body, registered in
     Scotland, with registration number SC005336.

   Prof. Phil Jones
   Climatic Research Unit        Telephone +44 (0) 1603 592090
   School of Environmental Sciences    Fax +44 (0) 1603 507784
   University of East Anglia
   Norwich                          Email    p.jones@uea.ac.uk
   NR4 7TJ
   UK
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