date: Tue Feb 19 09:24:25 2008
from: Phil Jones <p.jones@uea.ac.uk>
subject: Fwd: On behalf of Scott Armstrong
to: "O'Neill Saffron Miss \(ENV\)" <S.O-neill@uea.ac.uk>

    Saffron,
       These are all skeptics, but worth at least looking at.
     Scott Armstrong is a well-known statistician, but he thinks he's
    the Authority on all things to do with forecasting and prediction.
    Cheers
    Phil

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     Date: Mon, 18 Feb 2008 20:40:34 -0500
     From: "Janice Dow" <dowj@sas.upenn.edu>
     Sender: janicedow@gmail.com
     To: dowj@sas.upenn.edu
     Subject: On behalf of Scott Armstrong
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     Are Polar Bears in danger? Senate testimony by Scott Armstrong, Jan. 30, 2008
     Scott Armstrong, Kesten Green and Willie Soon (a physical scientist who has done much
     research on climate change) audited the forecasting methods used to support the
     government's strategy to list polar bears as an endangered species. Conclusion? The
     forecasts of polar bear populations were not derived from scientific forecasting
     procedures. As Armstrong stated: "On average, the authors [of the government reports]
     properly applied only 12% of relevant [scientific forecasting] principles. In what
     occupations would work that follows 12% of proper procedures be considered acceptable?
     Details, including a video of Armstrongs's six-minute presentation to the U. S. Senate
     Hearing on polar bears, and the  written transcript of the interesting Q&A between Boxer
     and Armstrong are available at [1]http://theclimatebet.com
     The most recent version of our our paper, available at
     [2]http://publicpolicyforecasting.com has been submitted for publication, but we are
     still seeking peer review. Might you be able to review the paper?
     Thanks,
     Scott Armstrong
     *This email sent on behalf of Scott Armstrong by his research assistant Janice Dow.

   Prof. Phil Jones
   Climatic Research Unit        Telephone +44 (0) 1603 592090
   School of Environmental Sciences    Fax +44 (0) 1603 507784
   University of East Anglia
   Norwich                          Email    p.jones@uea.ac.uk
   NR4 7TJ
   UK
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