cc: k.briffa@uea,t.osborn@uea
date: Mon, 28 Feb 2000 13:50:17 +0000
from: Tim Osborn <t.osborn@uea.ac.uk>
subject: Re: newest reconstruction
to: "Michael E. Mann" <mann@multiproxy.evsc.virginia.edu>

At 11:56 25/02/00 -0500, you wrote:
>I need your newest northern hemisphere density-based tree-ring reconstruction
>and appropriate reference for updating IPCC. Please send in ASCII format as
>soon as possible so we can incorporate. I hope all is well. Thanks,

Hi Mike

Keith asked me to get back to you on this.  The reconstruction is the same
as the one I sent on the 5th October 1999, but I'm sending it again in case
that e-mail isn't handy.  The reconstruction has now been published, in the
following paper:

Briffa K.R. (2000) Annual climate variability in the Holocene: interpreting
the message of ancient trees. Quaternary Science Reviews 19, 87-105.

This paper does not, however, give full details about how the
reconstruction was obtained.  The details are not yet published, but will
soon be submitted:

Briffa KR, Osborn TJ, Schweingruber FH, Harris IC, Jones PD, Shiyatov SG
and Vaganov EA (2000) Low-frequency temperature variations from a northern
tree-ring density network. In preparation (to be submitted to Journal of
Geophysical Research).

Details about the file I'm sending you (repeated from 5th Oct 99):

The data are attached to this e-mail.  They go from 1402 to 1994, although
we usually stop the series in 1960 because of the recent non-temperature
signal that is superimposed on the tree-ring data that we use.  I haven't
put a 40-yr smoothing through them - I thought it best if you were to do
this to ensure the same filter was used for all curves.  The data I've sent
are calibrated over the period 1881-1960 against the instrumental Apr-Sep
tempratures averaged over all land grid boxes (that have observed data)
that are north of 20N.  As such, the mean of our reconstruction over
1881-1960 matches the mean of the observed target series over the same
period.  Since the observed series consists of degrees C anomalies wrt to
1961-90, we say that the reconstructed series also represents degrees C
anomalies wrt to 1961-90.

(I've already truncated the series at 1960 because of the problems with the
recent period.)

Best regards

Tim



Calibrated against observed Apr-Sep temperature over 1881-1960
averaged over all land grid boxes north of 20N


Year  Reconstructed temperature anomaly (degrees C wrt 1961-90)
1402    -0.283
1403    -0.334
1404    -0.286
1405    -0.350
1406    -0.152
1407    -0.124
1408    -0.220
1409    -0.175
1410    -0.100
1411    -0.129
1412    -0.226
1413    -0.115
1414    -0.386
1415    -0.319
1416    -0.277
1417    -0.136
1418    -0.172
1419    -0.294
1420    -0.280
1421    -0.335
1422    -0.406
1423    -0.312
1424    -0.207
1425    -0.136
1426    -0.354
1427    -0.222
1428    -0.305
1429    -0.322
1430    -0.282
1431    -0.143
1432    -0.212
1433    -0.234
1434    -0.076
1435    -0.309
1436    -0.411
1437    -0.122
1438    -0.272
1439    -0.159
1440    -0.330
1441    -0.160
1442    -0.105
1443    -0.080
1444    -0.308
1445    -0.138
1446    -0.317
1447    -0.270
1448    -0.301
1449    -0.357
1450    -0.137
1451    -0.183
1452    -0.207
1453    -0.485
1454    -0.265
1455    -0.358
1456    -0.241
1457    -0.199
1458    -0.366
1459    -0.397
1460    -0.252
1461    -0.230
1462    -0.252
1463    -0.209
1464    -0.174
1465    -0.174
1466    -0.280
1467    -0.256
1468    -0.256
1469    -0.222
1470    -0.237
1471    -0.094
1472    -0.122
1473    -0.056
1474    -0.320
1475    -0.376
1476    -0.133
1477    -0.075
1478     0.037
1479    -0.161
1480    -0.379
1481    -0.513
1482    -0.286
1483    -0.354
1484    -0.327
1485    -0.208
1486    -0.125
1487    -0.380
1488    -0.193
1489    -0.245
1490    -0.466
1491    -0.244
1492    -0.146
1493    -0.278
1494    -0.394
1495    -0.526
1496    -0.275
1497    -0.264
1498    -0.233
1499    -0.169
1500    -0.128
1501    -0.415
1502    -0.306
1503     0.011
1504    -0.013
1505    -0.378
1506    -0.226
1507    -0.428
1508    -0.192
1509    -0.312
1510    -0.157
1511    -0.162
1512    -0.188
1513    -0.135
1514    -0.418
1515    -0.258
1516    -0.381
1517    -0.134
1518    -0.180
1519    -0.166
1520    -0.035
1521    -0.384
1522    -0.302
1523    -0.541
1524    -0.371
1525    -0.183
1526    -0.289
1527    -0.224
1528    -0.247
1529    -0.432
1530    -0.291
1531    -0.467
1532    -0.343
1533    -0.586
1534    -0.183
1535    -0.417
1536    -0.350
1537    -0.257
1538    -0.451
1539    -0.398
1540    -0.497
1541    -0.406
1542    -0.584
1543    -0.448
1544    -0.317
1545    -0.312
1546    -0.289
1547    -0.114
1548    -0.459
1549    -0.335
1550    -0.009
1551    -0.074
1552    -0.047
1553    -0.207
1554    -0.285
1555    -0.116
1556    -0.141
1557    -0.419
1558    -0.174
1559    -0.465
1560    -0.287
1561    -0.169
1562    -0.231
1563    -0.270
1564    -0.347
1565    -0.116
1566    -0.202
1567    -0.278
1568    -0.445
1569    -0.488
1570    -0.465
1571    -0.434
1572    -0.674
1573    -0.324
1574    -0.493
1575    -0.273
1576    -0.623
1577    -0.483
1578    -0.521
1579    -0.551
1580    -0.473
1581    -0.436
1582    -0.382
1583    -0.345
1584    -0.280
1585    -0.565
1586    -0.409
1587    -0.580
1588    -0.530
1589    -0.534
1590    -0.354
1591    -0.377
1592    -0.407
1593    -0.337
1594    -0.591
1595    -0.459
1596    -0.436
1597    -0.475
1598    -0.152
1599    -0.134
1600    -0.381
1601    -1.169
1602    -0.403
1603    -0.414
1604    -0.472
1605    -0.393
1606    -0.564
1607    -0.529
1608    -0.822
1609    -0.789
1610    -0.617
1611    -0.681
1612    -0.670
1613    -0.364
1614    -0.733
1615    -0.428
1616    -0.698
1617    -0.479
1618    -0.485
1619    -0.524
1620    -0.706
1621    -0.671
1622    -0.714
1623    -0.662
1624    -0.387
1625    -0.566
1626    -0.671
1627    -0.665
1628    -0.759
1629    -0.654
1630    -0.379
1631    -0.466
1632    -0.330
1633    -0.377
1634    -0.521
1635    -0.222
1636    -0.265
1637    -0.252
1638    -0.396
1639    -0.382
1640    -0.400
1641    -1.152
1642    -1.067
1643    -1.092
1644    -0.649
1645    -0.588
1646    -0.632
1647    -0.554
1648    -0.368
1649    -0.572
1650    -0.215
1651    -0.317
1652    -0.529
1653    -0.268
1654    -0.343
1655    -0.400
1656    -0.372
1657    -0.332
1658    -0.359
1659    -0.182
1660    -0.260
1661    -0.258
1662    -0.433
1663    -0.433
1664    -0.353
1665    -0.440
1666    -0.837
1667    -0.857
1668    -0.816
1669    -0.779
1670    -0.871
1671    -0.463
1672    -0.434
1673    -0.631
1674    -0.663
1675    -0.870
1676    -0.523
1677    -0.670
1678    -0.794
1679    -0.768
1680    -0.701
1681    -0.380
1682    -0.518
1683    -0.364
1684    -0.369
1685    -0.688
1686    -0.178
1687    -0.481
1688    -0.351
1689    -0.229
1690    -0.254
1691    -0.221
1692    -0.545
1693    -0.263
1694    -0.316
1695    -0.955
1696    -0.816
1697    -0.687
1698    -1.054
1699    -1.005
1700    -0.630
1701    -0.818
1702    -0.510
1703    -0.377
1704    -0.420
1705    -0.527
1706    -0.328
1707    -0.257
1708    -0.465
1709    -0.493
1710    -0.288
1711    -0.344
1712    -0.345
1713    -0.242
1714    -0.390
1715    -0.305
1716    -0.390
1717    -0.309
1718    -0.270
1719    -0.194
1720    -0.110
1721    -0.427
1722     0.005
1723    -0.193
1724    -0.249
1725    -0.497
1726    -0.381
1727    -0.241
1728    -0.133
1729    -0.261
1730    -0.633
1731    -0.723
1732    -0.426
1733    -0.371
1734    -0.104
1735    -0.373
1736    -0.330
1737    -0.206
1738    -0.557
1739    -0.291
1740    -0.734
1741    -0.594
1742    -0.808
1743    -0.378
1744    -0.372
1745    -0.418
1746    -0.501
1747    -0.150
1748    -0.389
1749    -0.328
1750    -0.168
1751    -0.343
1752    -0.227
1753    -0.218
1754    -0.377
1755    -0.328
1756    -0.221
1757    -0.259
1758    -0.431
1759    -0.340
1760    -0.335
1761    -0.261
1762    -0.466
1763    -0.291
1764    -0.473
1765    -0.378
1766    -0.212
1767    -0.429
1768    -0.544
1769    -0.343
1770    -0.341
1771    -0.265
1772    -0.547
1773    -0.421
1774    -0.048
1775    -0.289
1776    -0.186
1777    -0.288
1778    -0.178
1779    -0.550
1780    -0.339
1781    -0.251
1782    -0.164
1783    -0.757
1784    -0.142
1785    -0.141
1786    -0.179
1787    -0.432
1788    -0.207
1789    -0.235
1790    -0.612
1791    -0.163
1792    -0.086
1793    -0.023
1794    -0.030
1795    -0.243
1796    -0.028
1797    -0.565
1798    -0.049
1799    -0.228
1800    -0.287
1801    -0.413
1802    -0.117
1803     0.020
1804     0.036
1805    -0.094
1806    -0.251
1807    -0.089
1808    -0.241
1809    -0.460
1810    -0.582
1811    -0.353
1812    -0.459
1813    -0.545
1814    -0.458
1815    -0.588
1816    -0.855
1817    -0.861
1818    -0.629
1819    -0.680
1820    -0.289
1821    -0.351
1822    -0.159
1823    -0.246
1824    -0.276
1825    -0.263
1826    -0.140
1827    -0.293
1828    -0.033
1829    -0.087
1830    -0.173
1831    -0.045
1832    -0.621
1833    -0.660
1834    -0.141
1835    -0.647
1836    -0.775
1837    -0.771
1838    -0.359
1839    -0.267
1840    -0.144
1841    -0.077
1842    -0.337
1843    -0.435
1844    -0.101
1845    -0.412
1846     0.106
1847    -0.079
1848    -0.346
1849    -0.393
1850    -0.261
1851    -0.165
1852    -0.100
1853    -0.174
1854    -0.138
1855    -0.418
1856    -0.250
1857    -0.538
1858    -0.126
1859    -0.195
1860    -0.231
1861    -0.029
1862    -0.555
1863    -0.303
1864    -0.407
1865    -0.256
1866    -0.437
1867    -0.413
1868    -0.119
1869    -0.321
1870    -0.213
1871    -0.352
1872    -0.163
1873    -0.183
1874    -0.372
1875    -0.247
1876    -0.487
1877    -0.192
1878     0.120
1879    -0.152
1880    -0.346
1881    -0.184
1882    -0.200
1883    -0.183
1884    -0.717
1885    -0.534
1886    -0.485
1887    -0.281
1888    -0.261
1889    -0.153
1890    -0.341
1891    -0.313
1892    -0.138
1893    -0.301
1894    -0.134
1895    -0.128
1896    -0.241
1897    -0.016
1898     0.065
1899    -0.574
1900    -0.218
1901    -0.049
1902    -0.287
1903    -0.142
1904    -0.205
1905    -0.308
1906    -0.034
1907    -0.412
1908    -0.048
1909    -0.214
1910    -0.147
1911    -0.194
1912    -0.631
1913    -0.161
1914    -0.294
1915    -0.074
1916    -0.277
1917    -0.297
1918    -0.460
1919    -0.013
1920    -0.272
1921    -0.114
1922    -0.036
1923    -0.305
1924    -0.141
1925    -0.258
1926    -0.115
1927    -0.198
1928    -0.018
1929    -0.161
1930     0.086
1931     0.104
1932     0.081
1933    -0.057
1934     0.007
1935    -0.037
1936    -0.019
1937     0.060
1938     0.163
1939    -0.075
1940     0.113
1941    -0.200
1942     0.128
1943     0.053
1944    -0.080
1945     0.059
1946    -0.016
1947    -0.188
1948    -0.038
1949    -0.107
1950    -0.269
1951    -0.100
1952    -0.118
1953     0.161
1954    -0.235
1955    -0.127
1956    -0.308
1957    -0.194
1958    -0.308
1959    -0.224
1960     0.076

Dr Timothy J Osborn                 | phone:    +44 1603 592089
Senior Research Associate           | fax:      +44 1603 507784
Climatic Research Unit              | e-mail:   t.osborn@uea.ac.uk
School of Environmental Sciences    | web-site: 
University of East Anglia __________|   http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/~timo/
Norwich  NR4 7TJ         | sunclock:
UK                       |   http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/~timo/sunclock.htm
