date: Tue, 29 Dec 1998 15:54:09 -0500
from: sdecotii@ncdc.noaa.gov
subject: IPCC Chapter 2 Outline and Letter for Contributors
to: pgroisma@ncdc.noaa.gov, drobins@gandalf.rutgers.edu,  serreze@kryos.colorado.edu, jmagnuson@macc.wisc.edu, tpeterso@ncdc.noaa.gov,  m.hulme@uea.ac.uk, gruza@omvpk.msk.su, raino.heino@fmi.fi, pf@dmi.min.dk,  Phil.Arkin@noaa.gov, rheim@ncdc.noaa.gov, Richard_Armstrong@nocc.gov,  j.salinger@niwa.cri.nz, William.Hogg@ec.gc.ca, Frank.H.Quinn@noaa.gov,  robock@envsci.rutgers.edu, swwang@pku.edu.cn, laban.ogallo@meteo.go.ke,  mechoso@cloud.atmos.ucla.edu, adai@cgd.ucar.edu, d9k@d9k.esd.ornl.gov,  conway@atmos.washington.edu, p.jones@uea.ac.uk, k-kunkel@uiuc.edu,  deparker@meto.gov.uk, n.plummer@bom.gov.au, fzwiers@ec.gc.ca,  ckfolland@meto.gov.uk, rquayle@ncdc.noaa.gov, robert.balling@asu.edu,  landsea@aoml.noaa.gov, nnn@bom.gov.au, trenbert@ra.cgd.ucar.EDU,  rdrosen@aer.com, gibm0978@info.iuol.cn.net, James.Angell@noaa.gov,  sen@met.fsu.edu, mlal@cas.iitd.ernet.in, brazdil@porthos.geogr.muni.cz



(See attached file: Ipcclead_prelim.doc)(See attached file: Paris4.doc)


December 24, 1998



Dear Invited Contributor:

This note is to formally request a contribution from you as a Contributor
to the IPCC Third Assessment Report.  In particular, we are soliciting your
input to Chapter 2 of the report AObserved Variations and Changes in
Climate@.  A draft topic sentence outline for the content of the chapter,
along with a list of Convening Lead Authors (CLA), Lead Authors (LA) and
review Editors (RE) is given for your information at the end of this
letter.  Please see the enclosed outline for the areas we thought you could
best contribute, but if there are additional areas you would like to
contribute to, please provide the material to me and I will forward it to
the appropriate Lead Author.

Essentially, the fundamental purpose of the Chapter is to assess research
on obtaining information about changes and variations of the climate based
on observed and proxy records. Please consult a copy of the 1995 IPCC
chapter for guidance on general content and style, though we are, of
course, intending to put major new emphases on  the recent issues that have
arisen. You should also bear in mind the relevence of any material to the
climate change detection issue. Although most of the material directly
relevant to that chapter (Chapter 12) will go directly to those Lead
Authors, do not hesitate to draw attention to material within your terms of
reference that might be relevant in either that or our chapter.

 At this time, we are looking for short text contributions (1 to 3 pages)
for each section where your name appears.  In addition, we are requesting
diagrams or figures you think are appropriate. If these can be provided in
electronic form, that would be a benefit. Please discuss this with your
lead author but POSTSCRIPT or embedded WORD97 diagrams are preferred in
many cases.  It is especially important that you write to the style of
previous IPCC reports and you include references to work cited.  As many of
you know, it is extremely unlikely that your text will be preserved in the
final draft, but we have found that almost without exception that the
topics addressed in invited contributions have found their way into the
final report.

We need to have your contribution by February 20 to meet the schedule
listed below:

February 20, 1999 B> Assemble Draft Minus 1 for review at the Asheville
Meeting

March 8-12, 1999B> Asheville Lead Author and Contributor Review Meeting
(Contributors attend at their discretion)

May 14, 1999 --> Zero order draft for informal review within the IPCC

October 1, 1999  --> First draft for official Expert Review
March 24, 2000 --> Second draft for official Government Review

September 29, 2000 --> Third Draft addressing all review comments

January 2001 --> Last plenary in which the TAR is finalized

However, we recognize that this timetable may be insufficient for all your
material. Please advise your requesting lead author of material you wish to
submit a little later.  Other key dates include material presented by your
lead author at the Asheville meeting (March 8-12) and delivery by early
April for inclusion in the zero order draft.

We point out that inclusion in the Chapter of the material you send to us
is not guaranteed. It is up to the CLAs and LAs to evaluate the
appropriateness of including your material in the Chapter.  The Chapter
will only include material produced subsequent to the publication of the
1995 WGI SAR report, unless it is relevant to ongoing controversies, or
material that for whatever reason was not included in the SAR, but that it
is relevant for the TAR.  Therefore,
please do not send all of your research products, but only recent (i.e.
post 1995) and relevant ones (based on the points above and the Chapter
outline.  Please be concise and focused with the material you send.  In
particular, state clearly if you want to convey a specific message.

The information you send should be available in the published literature
papers, books, reports, proceedings etc., not necessarily in English, be
part of a database that has been peer-reviewed and is available for
analysis or at least be part of a submitted paper or report (and thus
available in preprint format) by the time of the various deadlines.
Following IPCC rules also "unpublished reports in the public domain" are
eligible for inclusion/reference.  Although the basic structure of the
Chapter is not cast in stone at this time, we will likely not modify it
substantially unless there was a very compelling reason. This basic Chapter
structure has already been accepted by the IPCC Plenary.

We have organized our chapter and the handling of submitted contributions
in the following way:

We formed sub-groups of LAs and Key Contributors in charge of producing a
first draft of each section of the Chapter.  If we have not tagged you in
the appropriate section, we ask that you identify the section of the
Chapter you feel your contribution is most relevant for and send your
contribution to the LAs in charge of that section or the Key Contributor
who will forward it on to the appropriate LA.  Please, do not send material
to all of us or only to the Chapter CLAs.

The contribution can be in the form of written summary statements, figures
and tables (possibly with comments on them), pre- and re-prints of papers
and other published material.  Electronic mail, fax or hard copies are ok.

If you have any question you can reach me by e-mail, fax or phone as noted
above.  Thanks again for your help.  Please let us know if you cannot meet
the February 20 deadline.  Based on this set of deadlines, it is evident
that the scheduling for the production of the Chapter is extremely tight,
so that we need to receive contributions AS SOON AS POSSIBLE, noting the
statement made under the timetable above.  In particular, the most relevant
deadline is that of the first draft, because this is the first one going
out for official external review.  Likely, the basic content of the Chapter
will highly resemble that of the first draft.

Therefore, we stress the importance of sending us material early that can
be updated relatively easily until the first full draft of October 1, 1999
(which means realistically by MID SEPTEMBER 1999), even better for the 0
order draft of  May 14, 1999.  Also, again following IPCC rules, material
can still be cited anytime up to the 2nd draft stage (February-March 2000)
for late-breaking papers/reports.

Also, we ask you to please circulate this solicitation for contribution to
colleagues that are not included in the above email list and that you think
should (please also let us know their email address so we can include them
in the list for future communications).

If you have any question on the Chapter, you can address them at the
following email addresses:  tkarl@ncdc.noaa.gov or cfolland@meto.gov.uk

With the best regards of all the authors of Chapter

Chapter 2 authors:

CLA: C. Folland (UK) E-Mail: cfolland@meto.gov.uk
     T. Karl (USA) E-Mail: tkarl@ncdc.noaa.gov

LA:  S. Wang (China) E-Mail: swwang@pku.edu.cn
     J. Christy (USA) E-Mail: christy@atmos.uah.edu
     J. Jouzel (France) E-Mail: jouzel@obelix.saclay.cea.fr
     A. Clarke (Canada) E-Mail: clarke@eos.ubc.ca
     J. Oerlemans (Netherlands) E-Mail: j.oerlmans@fys.ruu.nl
     M. Mann (USA) E-Mail: mann@snow.geo.umass.edu (normal)
     memann@titan.oit.umass.edu (attachments)
     G. Gruza (Russian Federation) E-Mail: climate@cabel.net
     M. Salinger (New Zealand) E-Mail:j.salinger@niwa.cri.nz

RE:  B. Nyenzi (Tanzania) E-Mail: bnyenzi@nyenzi.com
     R. Hallgren (USA) E.Mail: hallgren@dc.ametsoc.org

Sincerely,

Chris Folland                  Tom Karl
.
Co-Convening Lead Authors
10





     Chapter 2 Outline and Assigned Areas of Primary Responsibility

1    The overall length of Chapter 2 should be about 35 two-column pages
     including figures.    In the outline below contributions are
     identified along with topic sentence issues related to the
     contribution from each contributor.  Those authors with an asterisk
     beside their name are responsible for developing first draft all
     material until the next author with an asterisk appears in the
     outline.

     2 Introduction 
 Folland* and Karl to describe the motivation for
     Chapter 2, primary issues, and how uncertainty is addressed
     2.1  Summary of IPCC 1995 ---- Folland and Karl* to describe the
          highlights of IPCC 1995 and provide information to the reader
          regarding areas of particular note for this report as related to
          major advances in our knowledge about climate variations and
          changes within the IPCC 2000 report. Put in context of key
          controversies.
     2.2  How much is the world warming?
          2.2.1     Background ----  Karl to discuss the variety of thermal
               indicators available and why we look at so many different
               measures of temperature change.
          2.2.2     Surface temperature ---- Karl to describe primary
               issues affecting our confidence in documenting changes of
               temperature in the instrumental record on global, regional
               and local space scales.  We will be calculating various
               trends and smoothing methods, so please send data described
               below to tpeterso@ncdc.noaa.gov.
          2.2.2.1   Land surface air temperature Folland
               */Jones/Peterson/Gruza/Hansen to provide update of worldwide
               surface land temperature change and description of data
               trends and improvements since 1995 IPCC report.  Four data
               sets will be used (Hansen, Jones, Peterson, and
               Gruza/Laguina to update Vinnikov/Groisman data set). Please
               include NH, SH and Globe. Please provide annual and monthly
               values to Tom Peterson for plotting and trend calculation.
               If possible provide data on 5x5 grid for each year/month
               value for the following data sets: GHCN and Jones (East
               Anlglia data). Easterling to provide write-up on updated
               trends for max/min/dtr.  These data should be provided on a
               5x5 grid (Annual). Cloud amounts could be plotted on the
               same time series graph (see Dai analysis) ---- Easterling --
               Coordinate with Groisman, Kaiser and Dai to obtain national
               cloud cover data sets.
          2.2.2.2   Sea surface and ocean surface air temperature.
          2.2.1.1   Folland/Parker/Reynolds/Quayle to update worldwide NH,
               SH, and global SSTs with accompanying diagrams including
               recent modeling results with fixed SSTs with and without
               bucket corrections. Please include a description of observed
               changes. Reynolds/Quayle to provide data subsequent to
               bucket corrections, e.g., satellite era.  Provide annual and
               year-month values to David Parker for plotting and trend
               calculations for NH, SH, and Globe.  For Folland/Parker
               provide 5x5 gridded data. Also Folland and Parker will
               provide plots of SST and nighttime marine air temperatures
               on an annual basis for Globe.
          2.2.1.1   Land and sea combined Folland/Parker/Jones/Peterson/
               Quayle. Folland will provide write-up describing results of
               combined data of the NH, SH and Globe which will include
               both circle plots reflecting trends at 5x5 grid cells as
               well as isopleth values depicting trends since the turn of
               the Century. This will be in addition to the time series
               plots of NH, SH, and Globe.
          2.2.1.2   Are the surface temperature trends consistent? Folland
               and Parker to produce a description of the consistency among
               different data sets and land and ocean temperatures. We will
               also show here the trends of temperature for different
               periods (winter & summer) for the periods 1910-1945,
               1946-1975, and 1976-present.  These will be shown either in
               circle representation (5x5 grid cells) or in isopleth form.
               We have also been requested to produce the following time
               series on an annual basis for temps: NH-SH, Zonal 10-30N -
               50-70N, Tland - Tocean, Twinter-Tsummer averaged for both
               hemispheres
1.1.1                         2.2.2      Tropospheric and stratospheric
               temperatures  Christy*/Hurrell/
               Parker/Santer/Palmer/Changery/Eskridge/Brown/Stendel/Angell/
               Sterin/Gaffen/Ramaswamy.  Zonal mean Temps T 700mb - T 100mb
               using radiosonde data. John Christy will lead this section.
               It will include a discussion of the observed changes of
               radiosonde and MSU temperatures as well as a discussion of
               these same trends from the NCEP re-analysis.  Christy will
               provide an illustration depicting the trends of temperature
               from the surface to the lower stratosphere using various
               data sets.  Discussion should include the likelihood that
               the trends can change sign from the surface to the
               stratosphere as observed based on model simulations as well
               as physical arguments. CARDS data as well as the Parker data
               sets should be used.
          2.2.21    Tropospheric trends Zonal plots are requested for the
               zones 20S to 20N                and 20N and 60N.  Discussion
               of radiosonde errors and error related to
               orbital drift, orbital decay, and calibration of instruments
               need to be considered.
          2.2.2.2   Lower stratospheric trends  ---- Alex Sterin should be
               contacted and the Ozone Assessment for 1998 should be
               considered (Ramanathan had the lead in the ozone assessment
               for this part of the report).
          2.2.2.3   Are tropospheric and surface trends consistent?  See
     notes  in 2.2.3.
1.1.2                              Volcanic and solar effects in the recent
               temperature record  Rind/Folland*/Haigue/Leen to discuss
               the effect of solar and volcanic forcing in the observed
               temperature record and the proxy record.   This section may
               be moved to the proxy records section.
          2.2.3     Retreat of the glaciers   Oerlemans* to discuss both
               mass balance data  and glacier length data as related to
               temperature..  Illustration required converting glacier
               length deviations to temperature based on modeling
               information.

1.1.1                         2.2.4      Trends in snow cover extent and
               lake ice  Karl*/Groisman/Robinson/Serreze/Magnuson.  Provide
               updated figure of snow cover extent with co-plotted
               temperature data.  Consider additional time series plots as
               related to snow cover from in-situ data.  Discuss
               uncertainties in the data.  Error due to gridding and method
               of observing and data processing.  An update of the
               satellite N.H. snow cover extent data set is required
               (co-plotted with temperatures) for each season.  Temperature
               should be within the snow covered areas.
          2.2.5      Are the retreat of glaciers, lake ice records, and
     trends in snow cover                       consistent with surface
     temperature trends.  Karl*
          2.2.6     Sea ice and thickness   Clarke* /Walsh/Rayner.
               Provide time series of Arctic and Antarctic sea ice with
               discussion of data uncertainties and observed changes.
               Please to the extent possible discuss the physical factors
               governing sea ice extent to help interpret any changes in
               the time series.
          2.2.7     Subsurface ocean temperatures 
               Clarke/Levitus/White/Philander
               Subsurface Ocean TemperatureA. Clarke will lead this
     session.
               Contribution will include Warren White, George Philander,
               and Syd Levitus but others are certain to be relevant.
               Issues to be addressed include changes in upper ocean
               temperature/salinity, to the dynamics related to changes in
               the N. Atlantic during the 1990s e.g., temperature and
               salinity as related to circulation, such as the NAO, and
               deep water temperature change that may be related to global
               surface temperature change points, e.g., 1945, 1977.
               Include Pacific Ocean where possible
               e.g,  North Pacific gyre, inter-decadal tropical Pacific
               changes. This section may need interaction by the Lead
               Author with the Processes Chapter at an early stage.
               2.2.8     All lead authors lead by Karl* (summary of 2.2)
     2.3  Is the recent warming unusual?
          2.3.1     Background  Mann*/Jouzel Emphasize outstanding issues
               from the 1995 report and new areas of info since then, plus
               emphasize why this section is important.
          2.3.2     Climate of the past 1000 years
               Mann will lead with Jones/Jouzel/Salinger. Emphasis will be
               on proxy, historical and borehole data that have been used
               to identify interannual and decadal temperature (N.
               Hemisphere or global) anomalies back to the so-called
               Mediaeval Warm Period.  Discussion will emphasis
               uncertainties in reconstruction and compare the 1990s and
               the temperature increase of the 20th Century with the recent
               Millennium.  Moisture related indicators should not be
               ignored.
          2.3.2.1   Proxy Climate Indicators
               This section will focus on proxy indicators including tree
               ring data.  Contributions from Overpeck, Fisher, J. Cole,
               Briffa, Barnett, Cook, and Bradley will be solicited.
               Assessment of uncertainties with respect to calibration
               differences between observed and proxy data as well as the
               effects in incomplete spatial coverage should be discussed.
               A figure showing best estimate and 95% confidence of temp
               back to 1000 AD is desirable.
          2.3.2.2   Historical Documentary Evidence
               Section lead by Wang*/Salinger with contribution from
               Bradley, Diaz/Wang, Pfister, and Selivanov.  New information
               on the warming trend in the Tibetan Plateau during the 20th
               Century should be discussed as well as other historical
               data.  Historical documents from China and other parts of
               the world should be discussed as they relate to confirm and
               contradict present thinking about temperature change of the
               past 1000 years.
          2.3.2.3   Borehole Measurements
               Section lead by Mann* with contribution from Pollock.  This
               section should  focus on recent efforts to develop a
               worldwide network of borehole measurements.  Again
               uncertainties with respect to incomplete coverage and
               analysis methods should be discussed.  A figure of borehole
               worldwide temps back to at least 1500 is desirable.
          2.3.2.4   Multi-Proxy Synthesis
               Mann will lead this section.  Emphasis will be on whether
               the proxy data builds a consistent picture of change.  A
               figure showing both Borehole and Proxy temperature changes
               is desirable.
          2.3.2.5   Glacier Length Records
               Oelermans* will lead with contr
ibutions sought from Haeberli
               and Fitzharris.  Rowden-Rich (Tasmania) has offered to
               contribute. Both observed glacier length and model data will
               be used to build a picture of multi-century temperature
               change.  If possible, at least 1 figure should be produced
               to show the relation between temperature and glacial length.
          2.3.2.6   Was there a Little Ice Age and a Mediaeval Warm Spell
               Mann* and Jones to lead.  Discussion should answer the
               question posed in context with data from 2.3.2.1 to 2.3.2.5.
          2.3.3.    Summary of 2.3.2  Led by Folland*
2.4       2.4  How rapidly did climate change in the distant past?
          2.4.1     Background
               Jouzel* will lead and emphasize data used to answer question
               above.  Some discussion on why we can use just a few ice
               cores to discern changes of global climate in the distant
               past.
          2.4.2     How stable was the Holocene climate?  Jouzel to lead.
               Stability of the climate will be discussed as related to the
               20th Century warming.  Lake sediments, ice cores, deep sea
               sediments will all be referenced to provide a comprehensive
               picture.  A figure showing temperature changes is desirable.
               How much warmer than now was the Holocene maximum?
          2.4.3     How fast did climate change during the glacial period?
               Jouzel with contributions from Thompson (shallow ice cores)
               lakes (Overpeck), Magnuson (deep ice cores).  Jouzel will
               also address ocean sediment data to discuss improved
               information about multiple episodes of almost global extent
               of rapid climate change since the last IPCC assessment.
          2.4.4     How stable was the previous inter-glacial?
               Jouzel to lead.  Primary question here is whether the earth
               has warmed by more than 0.6 EC during any Century since the
               previous inter-glacial.  Has it warmed by more than 1-3EC
               (likely prediction for next Century).
          2.4.5     Summary of 2.4 -- All lead authors lead by Jouzel
     2.5  How have precipitation and atmospheric moisture changed?
          2.5.1     Background
          Karl* will discuss uncertainties in precipitation and moisture
          measurements, and   the need to intercompare observations from a
          variety of observing systems as well as their spatial continuity.
          Difficulties of high lat. and ocean precip measurements also
          discussed. Mention new integrated global precip data sets.
          2.5.2     Trends in precipitation
               2.5.2.1   Karl will lead with contributions from
               Groisman/Peterson/Hulme and Gruza.  Precipitation changes
               will be identified in global maps (circle) as in 1995 report
               for 20th Century and during periods of change points
               1900-45, 45-76 and 77-98 similar to temperature change
               points.  These will be annual values as well as a cold and
               warm season. Projection of figure will be based on time
               series zonal plots and global maps with trend magnitude
               depicted by circles.  Issues to resolve include precip in
               high latitudes, especially Russia .  GHCN and Hulme combined
               data sets will be used, but national data from Russia (USSR)
               will take precedence to resolve apparent discrepancy with
               National Data Sets.  Heino and Frich will contribute
               regional information (data to GHCN/Hulme data set as
               appropriate).  Razuvaev will be contacted for Russian precip
               data .
               2.5.2.2   Ocean Primary contributors include Arkin and Xie
               as related to the GPCP dataset.
               Primary issue relates to whether we have any information
               about large scale changes in ocean precip we can trust.
               Related data includes OLR and High reflectivity Data Sets as
               discussed in IPCC 1995.  Arkin again is the primary
               information source.
          2.5.2.3   Simultaneous changes of temp and precip
               Karl will discuss the trends (spatially and zonally) of
               temperature and precipitation changes for various periods of
               consistent global temperature change (1900-45, 45-76, and
               77-98) for both the cold and warm season.
          2.5.3     Snowfall
               Karl/Groisman/Robinson/Heim/ Lal/Armstrong will be the
               primary contributors.   Snowfall information and snow depth
               from longer term in-situ data should also be incorporated as
               these data now span large areas of the NH (Robinson) key
               contact for N.A., Armstrong, USSR, Gruza/Razuvaev USSR also;
               Wang/Li for PRC.  Lake Ice contribution John Magnusson (Univ
               of Wisconsin).
          2.5.4     Land-surface and subsurface water
          2.5.4.1   Streamflow
               Karl with lead with contributions from Salinger, Lins,
               Shiklomanov, and Georgievsky.  South American data to
               include recent work appearing in J. Climate.  Main issue is
               whether streamflow and precip trends are consistent.  Other
               contributors include Lattenmeir (USA) and Salinger for S.H.
               information.  Hogg to contribute info on Canadian
               Streamflow.  Salinger will work with WMO Hydro group. S.A.
               information from Jose Marengo INPE.
          2.5.4.2 Lake Levels
               Karl will lead with Vuglinsky as a contributor along with
               Nicholson and Street-Pernot to provide any update from 1995
               report on lake levels.  Quinn to update US Great Lakes and
               Hogg Canadian Lake levels.  An update of the Caspian Sea
               level will be presented by Vuglinsky/Skiklomanov/Georgivsky.
               Salinger will work with WMO to obtain new data for S.H.
               2.5.4.3   Soil moisture
               Robock/Speranskaya will be asked to provide updates of soil
               moisture over Russia and Wang/Robock over China.  Key issue
               is whether soil moisture is consistent with related work.
          2.5.5     Evaporation
          2.5.5.1   Land
               Update of pan evaporation data over USA;  Peterson; Update
               of Russian data Golevbev; Salinger to identify and develop
               S.H. pan evaporation data; Wang to focus on China Pan Evap
               data and Lal data and trends from India.  Frich to focus on
               European pan evap data.  Ogallo, African data and for S.A.,
               Mechoso.
          2.5.5.2   Ocean
               Allen Clarke* will lead this section.  Primary issue will be
               to discuss trends of Evap and their affect on ocean
               circulation as well as trends of Evap over the ocean tropics
               in particular.  Is there any new material since IPCC 1995?
          2.5.6     Water Vapor
               Folland* with Parker will develop this contribution; new
               analyses from Zhai and Eskridge.  CARDS data (Eskridge)
               Elliott and Gaffen for Euresia and North America.
          2.5.6.1Surface water vapor
               SSM/I data and analyses by Gaffen may hold promise for new
               data.  Christy will provide SSM/I analyses.  Prospects of
               major new analyses of global water vapor at the surface?.
          2.5.6.2 Tropospheric water vapor
               See notes in 2.5.6; Rob Allen could contribute w/r to his
               analysis of changes in global sea level pressure.
          2.5.7     Clouds
               Karl* to lead with (Dai/Kaiser over land)
          2.5.7.1   Land  New analyses by Dai and Kaiser over the land
          area should be           included.
          2.5.7.2   Ocean  New research by Bajuk/Leovy should be
               discussed; Bajuk will be asked to develop a 1-page
               contribution updating his recent paper.
          2.5.8     Summary of 2.5 All lead authors led by Karl
     2.6  Are the atmospheric/oceanic circulations changing?
          2.6.1Background, including new evidence for natural decadal
               variability,  Folland* to lead, with substantial support
               from Hurrell.
          2.6.2     El Nino/Southern Oscillation
               Clarke, Folland, Salinger with input from K. Wolter,
               Livezey, Goddard and Graham.  Emphasis to include a variety
               of ways to categorize ENSO/El Nino/La Nina and what they
               tell us, e.g, sea level, clouds, etc.  This should also
               include quantitative information on subsurface temperature
               and salinity.  SST analysis by Kaplan should also be
               considered.  Time Series plans of ENSO should be developed
               and the question of changes in frequency/intensity, and
               contribution to global warmth of 1997/1998 addressed.
          2.6.3     NAO, PNA AO, PDO, monsoonal indices and the COWL
               Folland with Hurrell, Wallace, Clarke, Wang, and Livezey.
               Information should include time series plots of important
               indices and a discussion regarding why these indices are
               useful measures of variability and how they affect our
               understanding of climate change.
          2.6.4     Northern hemisphere circulation
               Gruza, Trenberth, Kingste Mo, and Livezey.  Results from
               reanalysis should be discussed as related to changes in
               circulation.  Can also include important large-scale changes
               as they would affect storms, precipitation, and other
               climate elements.
          2.6.5     Southern hemisphere circulation
               Salinger to lead with contributions from Rob Allen, Neville
               Nicholls, and Warren White.  Information should include
               circulation indices (including Austral-Asian Monsoon) and
               the Antarctic circumpolo-circulation both ocean and
               atmosphere.  The South Pacific Convergence Zone and its
               relation to the understanding of climate variability/change
          2.6.6     Summary of Section 2.6 ---- All Lead Authors lead by
               Folland
     2.7  Has climate variability or climate extremes changed?  ---- Karl*,
          Gruza,   Groisman, Jones, Frich, Kunkel, Parker, Peterson,
          Plummer, Salinger and Heino.  Should be asked to contribute to
          the section where appropriate
          2.7.1     Background
               Definition of extremes, types of weather and climate
               extremes addressed, and what constitutes extremes in a
               changing climate.  What is the use results from difference
               between variability changes and extremes.    The Extremes
               Meeting in Aspen 1998, and the APN extremes meeting.  Zwiers
               to contribute here with Peterson/Folland on APN Meeting.
          2.7.2     Is there evidence for changes in climate variability?
               Define time scale and elements.  New information from Robert
               Balling and R. Quayle.
          2.7.2.1   Temperature
               Address changes in daily/monthly/seasonal/interannual and
               decadal changes in variability and extremes.  New
               information from Extremes Workshop., Frichs work with
               Peterson, Salinger for S.H. and Gruza indices
          2.7.2.2   Precipitation
               Contribution from Peterson/Gruza/Thapliyal/Lal (India).
               Analyses of changes in precipitation variability that would
               be useful include changes in interannual precipitation,
               e.g., Indian Monsoonal Index, Zonal and Regional patterns.
          2.7.2.3   Atmospheric circulation
               Input data sets include the CARDS (GUAN network plus) and
               the reanalysis.  New analyses are encouraged with
               contributions from Folland*, Livezey, K. Mo, Eskridge,
               observed/calculated changes in variability of indices and
               patterns discussed in the circulation section
          2.7.3     Are extreme weather events changing?
               Define terms here Karl* e.g., weather related to transcient
               circulation
          2.7.3.1   Tropical cyclones
               Salinger, Landsea, Nicholls to discuss trends and variation
               of tropical cyclones, landfalling storms, and the intensity
               of storms.  Include discussion of El Nino, La Nina effects
               all interannual variability.  How good is our data on
               trends?
          2.7.3.2   Extra-tropical storminess
               Karl with input from Jones, Gruza, Trenberth, Rosen to
               discuss new analyses with respect to storm intensity/tracts
               using reanalysis and sea level pressure.
          2.7.3.3   Intense precipitation events
               Frich, Groisman, Zhai, Peterson, Jones, Kunkel and others
               participating in the AVL Extremes Meeting.  Primary interest
               is new evidence improving information on trends and
               understanding how they arise.  Discussion of changes in
               frequency and intensity are appropriate.
          2.7.3.4   Extreme temperature
               Same as above with focus on breaking daily and monthly
               extreme records.  Also include information on freeze days
               and high apparent temperature (combination of temperature
               and humidity)
          2.7.3.5   Extreme surface moisture
               Dai as primary contribution.  Include time series of
               drought/wet areal extent in terns of areal extent a/a recent
               paper by Dai et al. To show whether extremes of drought wet
               spells are increasing in areal extent.
          2.7.3.6   Tornadoes, thunderstorms, hail, dust storms, and fire
               weather
               Contributors include Changnon, Angell, Brazdil, Trenberth,
               Landsea to provide data (time series) and discussion related
               to changes in these phenomena.
          2.7.4     Summary of Section 2.7.  Karl with input by all L.A.
     2.8  Is the climate really changing?
          2.8.1     Are the observed trends internally consistent
               Karl to lead the development of the IPCC 2001 version of the
               1995 cartoon of observed changes with a 3 star rating with
               explanation for number of stars given to each variable e.g.,
               conflicting analyses, quantity of information limited, etc.
          2.8.2     What are the clearest changes?
               Folland* with input from all L.A.

