date: Tue May 23 14:21:27 2000
from: Mike Hulme <m.hulme@uea.ac.uk>
subject: Re: NCAR-PCM
to: Martin D Crossley <M.Crossley@uea.ac.uk>

Martin,

Please email Jerry Meehl regarding this problem:

<meehl@meeker.ucar.edu>

Say you are working for me with regard to the IPCC DDC.  See if he can explain why in the NCAR PCM3 run the forced climate is *cooler* than the control climate for until the 2040s or so.  You could include the numbers calculated below for his information.

Please cc correspondence to me.

Mike


At 14:28 22/05/00 +0100, you wrote:
>Mike,
>
>I've checked my program thoroughly and can see no
>obvious bug. And as I mentioned, the routine for
>tackling NCAR-PCM is exactly the same as that used
>for every other GCM except that the input files 
>for the 61-90 period are taken from a different
>directory.
>
>I also checked that the 61-90 mean from the control
>run is comparable with the means from other GCMs,
>and they look very similar to me in the cases I
>checked.
>
>I've included the time series below, both for the 
>business-as-usual run (NCPGS1B) and the stabilisation
>run (NCPGS1S).
>Note that although I include annual means for the
>control data for the period 1960-1999, I only use
>1961-1990 in forming the mean.
>
>Martin
>
>
>YEAR     NCPGS1B
>6190   286.74277
>
>[control :]
>1960    -0.08875
>1961    -0.20856
>1962    -0.13785
>1963     0.02277
>1964    -0.03659
>1965     0.05637
>1966    -0.00839
>1967    -0.13828
>1968    -0.19644
>1969    -0.11133
>1970     0.07605
>1971    -0.03027
>1972    -0.09387
>1973     0.22214
>1974    -0.06079
>1975     0.06351
>1976     0.10175
>1977     0.17221
>1978     0.16547
>1979     0.04883
>1980     0.07635
>1981    -0.10385
>1982    -0.08041
>1983     0.00983
>1984     0.24872
>1985     0.02594
>1986    -0.03339
>1987    -0.00064
>1988    -0.01929
>1989     0.03671
>1990    -0.06699
>1991    -0.12717
>1992     0.01978
>1993    -0.04269
>1994    -0.01257
>1995    -0.00006
>1996    -0.11758
>1997     0.00540
>1998    -0.02951
>1999    -0.00125
>
>[business-as-usual run :]
>2000    -0.76505
>2001    -0.86383
>2002    -0.86072
>2003    -0.75986
>2004    -0.61319
>2005    -0.79550
>2006    -0.69528
>2007    -0.74429
>2008    -0.64893
>2009    -0.71072
>2010    -0.57574
>2011    -0.54633
>2012    -0.71234
>2013    -0.71426
>2014    -0.65005
>2015    -0.70306
>2016    -0.58679
>2017    -0.57159
>2018    -0.53305
>2019    -0.59741
>2020    -0.63260
>2021    -0.50385
>2022    -0.60010
>2023    -0.42813
>2024    -0.36652
>2025    -0.45493
>2026    -0.41818
>2027    -0.44031
>2028    -0.35416
>2029    -0.29910
>2030    -0.55313
>2031    -0.41995
>2032    -0.55869
>2033    -0.57980
>2034    -0.36691
>2035    -0.32251
>2036    -0.37299
>2037    -0.26385
>2038    -0.22482
>2039    -0.19165
>2040    -0.01492
>2041    -0.30432
>2042    -0.20059
>2043    -0.21194
>2044    -0.20837
>2045    -0.11777
>2046    -0.12970
>2047    -0.04547
>2048    -0.02649
>2049    -0.09222
>2050    -0.02792
>2051     0.00357
>2052     0.09216
>2053     0.12808
>2054     0.22534
>2055     0.15384
>2056     0.31268
>2057     0.35822
>2058     0.33572
>2059     0.12524
>2060     0.36258
>2061     0.41537
>2062     0.27356
>2063     0.24460
>2064     0.53967
>2065     0.54297
>2066     0.39804
>2067     0.30899
>2068     0.42349
>2069     0.53351
>2070     0.58847
>2071     0.48438
>2072     0.58530
>2073     0.36227
>2074     0.61975
>2075     0.67456
>2076     0.61359
>2077     0.74884
>2078     0.87296
>2079     0.62286
>2080     0.62402
>2081     0.71304
>2082     0.85803
>2083     0.68823
>2084     0.79315
>2085     0.76871
>2086     0.70645
>2087     0.81143
>2088     0.86765
>2089     0.87503
>2090     1.02676
>2091     0.90891
>2092     1.05710
>2093     1.02731
>2094     0.98199
>2095     0.87946
>2096     0.97684
>2097     1.09155
>2098     1.09805
>2099     0.94574
>
>
>YEAR     NCPGS1S
>6190   286.74277
>
>[stabilisation run :]
>2005    -0.57910
>2006    -0.86676
>2007    -0.74680
>2008    -0.70819
>2009    -0.73660
>2010    -0.74423
>2011    -0.64572
>2012    -0.80518
>2013    -0.80658
>2014    -0.76810
>2015    -0.58145
>2016    -0.58902
>2017    -0.75735
>2018    -0.59406
>2019    -0.49078
>2020    -0.49503
>2021    -0.50415
>2022    -0.42328
>2023    -0.59503
>2024    -0.53708
>2025    -0.47845
>2026    -0.41052
>2027    -0.51160
>2028    -0.46021
>2029    -0.33868
>2030    -0.44501
>2031    -0.29114
>2032    -0.30960
>2033    -0.18628
>2034    -0.34482
>2035    -0.30707
>2036    -0.29611
>2037    -0.32172
>2038    -0.28311
>2039    -0.14508
>2040    -0.31396
>2041    -0.26520
>2042    -0.25455
>2043    -0.16681
>2044    -0.10486
>2045    -0.32779
>2046    -0.21799
>2047    -0.14157
>2048    -0.02283
>2049     0.03479
>2050    -0.03860
>2051     0.06427
>2052     0.05716
>2053     0.17859
>2054     0.00177
>2055    -0.01874
>2056     0.09573
>2057     0.27472
>2058     0.13254
>2059     0.02664
>2060     0.21222
>2061     0.07574
>2062     0.20096
>2063     0.21109
>2064     0.23303
>2065     0.22922
>2066     0.29306
>2067     0.24631
>2068     0.35562
>2069     0.36069
>2070     0.51767
>2071     0.40424
>2072     0.36377
>2073     0.47241
>2074     0.36966
>2075     0.37009
>2076     0.45740
>2077     0.45422
>2078     0.43167
>2079     0.31277
>2080     0.44144
>2081     0.41150
>2082     0.38437
>2083     0.30783
>2084     0.25665
>2085     0.33255
>2086     0.32611
>2087     0.41238
>2088     0.50351
>2089     0.45911
>2090     0.41510
>2091     0.49271
>2092     0.63751
>2093     0.40604
>2094     0.61823
>2095     0.70343
>2096     0.50998
>2097     0.55185
>2098     0.52338
>2099     0.66074
>
>
