cc: "V McGregor" <V.McGregor@uea.ac.uk>
date: Thu, 22 Jan 2004 13:26:29 -0000
from: "shimon awerbuch" <awerbuch@alum.rpi.edu>
subject: RE: Tyndall/CMI Symposium Summary
to: "John Shepherd" <j.g.shepherd@soc.soton.ac.uk>, <eeadams@mit.edu>, <Kevin.anderson@umist.ac.uk>, <s.awerbuch@sussex.ac.uk>, <eaboyle@mit.edu>, <victor@pik-potsdam.de>, <basil.butler@lineone.net>, <kenc@llnl.gov>, <mgrc@ceh.ac.uk>, <silvana_cardoso@cheng.cam.ac.uk>, <he101@esc.cam.ac.uk>, <juliof@geol.umd.edu>, <rogerh@foe.co.uk>, <held@pik-potsdam.de>, <m.hulme@uea.ac.uk>, <p.johnston@exeter.ac.uk>, <keith@cmu.edu>, <lkump@psu.edu>, <ksl@ldeo.columbia.edu>, <brian.launder@umist.ac.uk>, <latham@ucar.edu>, <tlent@ceh.ac.uk>, <p.liss@uea.ac.uk>, <jesjl@aol.com>, <mcmahom@bp.com>, <pearcefred@compuserve.com>, <sirasool@compuserve.com>, <njr@bgs.ac.uk>, <dork.sahagian@unh.edu>, <h.j.schellnhuber@uea.ac.uk>, <vsmetacek@awi-bremerhaven.de>, <m.h.smith@leeds.ac.uk>, <phstone@mit.edu>, <rivw@nhm.ac.uk>, <a.watkinson@uea.ac.uk>, <lowellwood@comcast.net>

John --

Very good summary. I would underscore that a portfolio approach makes a lot
of sense given the magnitude of the problem and the uncertainties. I also
think that 'bifurcating' the issues -- i.e. into CO2 mitigation plus global
temperature control (increased albedo to lower solar radiation) makes a lot
of sense.  This creates extra degrees of freedom: in financial terms this
mean it creates potentially valuable options that can be exercised later.

However, I am uncertain now about a bifurcated approach because I am unclear
about the implications of continued CO2 emissions.  I liked the bifurcated
strategy because I was under the impression CO2 was helpful-- enhanced crop
growth, etc.  But in your summary, I see that it also causes acidification
of ocean waters.  Assuming albedo control system are in place, how does
continued CO2 emissions affect things?  Can it be categorized in simple
"positive" or "negative" terms?

Kudos on a great meeting!
Best - Shimon
--------------------------------------------------
Dr. Shimon Awerbuch
Energy-Regulatory Economics & Finance
Tyndall Centre Visiting Fellow,
SPRU - University of Sussex
Brighton, BN1 9QE,  UK
Phone: +44 1273 227 077
Mobile: +44 7796 835 279


-----Original Message-----
From: John Shepherd [mailto:j.g.shepherd@soc.soton.ac.uk]
Sent: Thursday, January 22, 2004 10:40 AM
To: eeadams@mit.edu; Kevin.anderson@umist.ac.uk;
s.awerbuch@sussex.ac.uk; eaboyle@mit.edu; victor@pik-potsdam.de;
basil.butler@lineone.net; kenc@llnl.gov; mgrc@ceh.ac.uk;
silvana_cardoso@cheng.cam.ac.uk; he101@esc.cam.ac.uk;
juliof@geol.umd.edu; rogerh@foe.co.uk; held@pik-potsdam.de;
m.hulme@uea.ac.uk; p.johnston@exeter.ac.uk; keith@cmu.edu;
lkump@psu.edu; ksl@ldeo.columbia.edu; brian.launder@umist.ac.uk;
latham@ucar.edu; tlent@ceh.ac.uk; p.liss@uea.ac.uk; jesjl@aol.com;
mcmahom@bp.com; pearcefred@compuserve.com; sirasool@compuserve.com;
njr@bgs.ac.uk; dork.sahagian@unh.edu; h.j.schellnhuber@uea.ac.uk;
j.g.shepherd@soc.soton.ac.uk; vsmetacek@awi-bremerhaven.de;
m.h.smith@leeds.ac.uk; phstone@mit.edu; rivw@nhm.ac.uk;
a.watkinson@uea.ac.uk; lowellwood@comcast.net
Cc: V McGregor
Subject: Tyndall/CMI Symposium Summary


Dear colleague

	Many thanks for coming to the Symposium. I feel that it was much more
successful than I had anticipated, and we are very grateful to you for your
contribution.

	Herewith a first and very tentative attempt to summarise (very briefly)
the "emerging consensus" from the meeting. I ran out of time at the point
where it breaks off, and I am sure I have forgotten to include some things,
but NB I am not (at this stage) aiming for a complete list of comments on
all the options, just to highlight any "surprises" (i.e. things which are
not common knowledge).

	Sorry its a bit rough, but I am up to my ears preparing a lot of lectures
for  the week after next.... All comments & suggestions (preferably as
Change Tracked amendments) will be welcome...

	John

PS	I have left a few people who were unable to attend on this circulation
list, so they get a modicum of feedback anyway (and will only delete them
for future messages if they so request)


