date: Tue Nov  2 08:42:36 2004
from: Phil Jones <p.jones@uea.ac.uk>
subject: Re: Further to your E-mail on IPCC/AR4
to: "Hiroki Kondo" <hkondo@jamstec.go.jp>

    Dear Hiroki,
       In a little more detail then:
    What we are after will be a box in the report of say 500-1000 words. It might include a
    diagram, but it doesn't have to. It should discuss trends of tropical cyclones in all
   basins
    and discuss trends. Some of the trends may be due to better reporting, for example,
   through
    satellites seeing more storms that miss land entirely. Some regions are better covered
    than others - maybe the Atlantic has the longest and best records, for example. Some text
    on what causes variations from year to year (e.g. due to ENSO), but also the latest views
    on whether some increases are due to human activities.
      If you want to co-ordinate the views of a number of people then this will be fine. It
   will be
    easier for us to deal with one person. The draft will get reviewed several stages as with
   all
    IPCC reports. We are at the first stage, so a review will be started from mid-Jan onwards
   by
    people we nominate, then by anybody next summer, then governments in early 2006. If a
    diagram is there we will need it updated with 2005 numbers later and maybe even with
    2006 as publication will be in 2007.
      The author would become a Contributing Author in the final chapter, so be named.
       I also send a similar message yesterday to another Japanese colleague, Prof
    Takehiko Mikami of Tokyo Met. University (MIKAMI Takehiko <mikami@comp.metro-u.ac.jp>)
    and he said he will also think about who a good person in Japan will be. I have known
    Takehiko for a number of years.
       As for writing style - more scientific than the 20th century climate review, but
   readable to
    most scientists and containing references. The latter is vital as all statements expressed
    should be backed up by papers in the peer-review literature. Views have been made in the
    literature, particularly by US scientists in Miami, but we are trying to get the
   views/opinions
    of others around the world.
       Thanks for your time and efforts on the matter.
    Cheers
    Phil
   At 08:05 02/11/2004, you wrote:

     Dear Phil,

          As I consult with several colleagues including those from Japan Meteorological
     Agency, there seems to be experts and specialists in this field of research in Japan
     dealing with not only tropical cyclones in western North Pacific (called Typhoons in
     severe stage) but also other regions.

         In order to facilitate your request most appropriately, it would be grateful if you
     could further inform me your request in more detail (to what extent time scale of
     statistics shoud be considered, or do you wish to discuss the relation of tropical
     cyclone formation with climate variabilities or ENSO events, etc.), so that we could
     identify exactly fitted person or forcal point
     among our colleagues.

     Best regards,
     ***********************************
     Hiroki KONDO
     Senior Scientist
     Frontier Research Center for Global Change
     3173-25, Showa-machi, Kanazawa-ku,
     Yokohama, 236-0001 JAPAN
     TEL: +81-45-778-5583
     FAX: +81-45-778-5496
     E-mail: [1]hkondo@jamstec.go.jp
     ********************************

     >  Dear Hiroki,
               With Kevin Trenberth, I'm putting together the Atmospheric
     Observations Chapter
       of the next IPCC report (due in 2007).  We are trying to find a Japanese
     scientist (or maybe
       a Chinese one) who could write a small box (say 500-100 words) about
     tropical storms
       (not just for East Asia, but other regions around the world) and whether
     the number is
       changing. I am aware of the high number that have affected Japan this
     year, so I was
       wondering if you know of someone in Japan, who writes on their changing
     number
       and often talks to the media. Any help with a contact name would be most
     appreciated.
       Best Regards
       Phil
     Prof. Phil Jones
     Climatic Research Unit        Telephone +44 (0) 1603 592090
     School of Environmental Sciences    Fax +44 (0) 1603 507784
     University of East Anglia
     Norwich                          Email    [2]p.jones@uea.ac.uk
     NR4 7TJ
     UK
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   Prof. Phil Jones
   Climatic Research Unit        Telephone +44 (0) 1603 592090
   School of Environmental Sciences    Fax +44 (0) 1603 507784
   University of East Anglia
   Norwich                          Email    p.jones@uea.ac.uk
   NR4 7TJ
   UK
   ----------------------------------------------------------------------------

