date: Thu Oct  7 16:12:40 2004
from: Phil Jones <p.jones@uea.ac.uk>
subject: Re: Lack-of-Progress Report
to: Adrian.Simmons@ecmwf.int

    Adrian,
       Glad you've found out. We don't appear to have lost more than a week. This sort of
   thing
    is frustrating.
    Cheers
    Phil
   At 11:44 07/10/2004, you wrote:

     Everyone
     See below for the confused status of our JGR resubmission.
     Adrian
     -------- Original Message --------
     Subject: Re: 2004JD005306 Decision Letter
     Date: Thu, 07 Oct 2004 11:40:12 +0100
     From: Adrian Simmons <Adrian.Simmons@ecmwf.int>
     Reply-To: Adrian.Simmons@ecmwf.int
     Organization: ECMWF
     To: kpumphrey@agu.org
     References: <1094741403@gems2>
     Edotorial Office
     JGR-Atmospheres
     I should be grateful if you would confirm that processing of my
     resubmission of a revised version of the manuscript referred to below is
     proceeding satisfactorily.
     I resubmitted it electronically on 1 October, and logged out after
     receiving the following sequence of messages:
     Waiting for Author Approval of Converted Files  2004-10-01 12:10:20
     Author Approved Converted Files 2004-10-01 12:21:05
     Initial Quality Control Started 2004-10-01 12:21:06
     However, despite the above message that converted files had been
     approved, when logging in again today to check on progress, I found the
     status was "Waiting for Author Aproval of converted files". After
     approving a file (again), the status changed directly to
     Waiting for Reviewer Assignment 2004-10-07 06:18:49
     I notice that the new (combined pdf) file I approved is different than
     that originally approved in that it does not now include the courtesy
     copy of figures in portrait format with legends attached. However, I am
     surprised that I was not notified by email that the combined file had
     been changed and required my further approval.
     Best regards
     Adrian Simmons
     jgr-atmospheres@agu.org wrote:

     Manuscript Number: 2004JD005306
     Manuscript Title: Comparison of trends and variability in CRU, ERA-40 and NCEP/NCAR
     analyses of monthly-mean surface air temperature

     Dear Dr. Simmons:

     Attached below please find 2 reviews on your above-referenced paper.  At least one of
     the Reviewers has raised questions and made suggestions for important revisions.  Please
     consider the Reviewer reports carefully, make the necessary changes in your manuscript
     and respond to me, explaining how you have addressed these comments.  In your Response
     to Reviewer letter, please include a statement confirming that all authors listed on the
     manuscript concur with submission in its revised form.

     The two reviewers have made some fairly substantial comments on the manner in which your
     results are presented and the emphasis that you place on the different aspects of your
     work. I am asking for major revisions to your paper, which are concerned more with the
     presentation than with the scientific details of your analysis. I agree with Reviewer #1
     that your paper should emphasize more strongly the suitability of reanalyses for trend
     studies, rather than the comparisons between ERA-40 and NCEP/NCAR, but this would need
     some fairly subtle changes (maybe more in the abstract, introduction and conclusions
     than in the body of the paper). I will most likely, but not necessarily, ask one of the
     reviewers for a new assessment of your revised paper.

     The due date for your revised paper is October 9, 2004.  If you will be unable to submit
     a revised manuscript by October 9, 2004, please notify my office and arrange for an
     extension (maximum two weeks).  If we do not hear from you by the revision due date,
     your manuscript will be considered as withdrawn.

     When you are ready to submit your revision, please use the link below.

     <[1]http://jgr-atmospheres-submit.agu.org/cgi-bin/main.plex?el=A2Bc4BFBM2A5oLJ4I6A99ddCo
     p0U1ug4tsmG9WCngZ>

     (NOTE: The link above automatically submits your login name and password.  If you wish
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     access to your entire account for this journal.)

     Sincerely,

     Steven Pawson
     Editor, Journal of Geophysical Research - Atmospheres

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     Reviewer Comments

     Reviewer #1 Evaluations:
     Assessment: Category 2
     Ranking: Very Good
     Annotated Manuscript: No
     Reviewer #1(Comments):
     This paper examines ERA-40 2-meter temperature analysis by comparing to CRU observation
     and NCEP/NCAR reanalysis.  The cause of the fictitious trend is further examined by
     looking into the analysis guess and the model simulation forced by observed SST.
     The paper is acceptable for publication in JGR with minor revisions.
     Major Comments:
             I value this paper for its effort to analyze how the long term trend in the
     analysis is brought about by observation and analysis guess.  It is quite convincing
     that the analysis trend is a result of bias in analysis guess and observation density.
             It is clear that ERA-40 is better than NCEP/NCAR reanalysis in several
     respects.  However, I do not think the major purpose of this paper is to demonstrate how
     good the ERA-40 is compare to some other reanalyses.  The important theme should be how
     accurately reanalyses can detect long term trend, how reliable they are and how we can
     interpret the results.  If comparison is the main purpose, I worry about the possibility
     of large amount of comparison papers coming out in Journals, which do not contribute
     significantly to the advance of atmospheric science.

             Apparently, the warming trend is simulated using atmospheric simulation.  I am
     wondering how much the warming trend is the result of SST and how much is from change in
     CO2.    The effect of SST is very important since analysis of SST in earlier years is
     not as accurate and may results in fictitious trend in SST, which in tern creates
     fictitious trend in atmospheric simulation, as well as in the atmospheric analysis.  I
     wonder what is the effect of SST in understanding the change in analysis increments in
     the Southern Hemisphere (Australia and Antarctica).  In this regard, the sea ice
     analysis also may contribute to the trends in southern hemisphere temperature trend.
             It is not clear how much CRU data were used in ERA-40.  Since analysis is
     compared with CRU data, this point needs to be explained in more detail.
     Minor Comments:
             The NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis 2 meter temperature may be the value of the 6 hour
     prediction.  This depends on which field you obtained from CDC.  Please confirm with the
     data supplier.  This does not change the result of the paper, but fair comparison with
     ERA-40 may need to be made against ERA-40 background guess.
             Is the simulation made in ensemble mode?  If so, is there a large spread of
     trend in the ensemble members?
     Reviewer #2 Evaluations:
     Assessment:  Category 4
     Ranking: Good
     Annotated Manuscript: No
     Reviewer #2(Comments):
     Review of Simmons et al.: Comparison of trends and variability in CRU, ERA40....
     General
     This article provides considerable information related to intercomparisons of three
     important data sets that have been used to discern surface temperature changes.  As such
     it provides a valuable contribution to furthering our understanding of how climate has
     varied and changed.   It does suffer however, from a rather sloppy description of what
     is being intercompared and related inferences regarding the causes of the differences
     among the data sets.  If the authors could address these issues I would recommend
     publication, but I emphasize to the editor, that as written, this article it not very
     effective in communication what was actually compared.
     Specific Comments
     Abstract ---   There is no mention in the abstract of the confounding nature of the
     intercomparisons using ERA40 due to the inclusion of screen level temperatures in
     calculating surface temperatures and soil moisture.  This is a major issue which the
     authors provide some 'hand-waving' arguments as to why they believe this is not a major
     issues, but since their arguments are not quantitative they are subject to skepticism.
     For this reason this should be mentioned in the Abstract to temper definitive
     conclusions related to the interpretation of the results of this work.
     Abstract and elsewhere --- the annoying use of terms like 'increments' appears without
     any definition of what the authors are talking about appears here and elsewhere in the
     text.  This needs correction.
     Abstract and elsewhere --- another undefined term "ERA-40 analyses"  is used in the
     abstract and somehow the reader is suppose to understand how this differs from the
     ERA-40 data assimilation without formal definitions.  There is some attempt, although as
     a reader I feel I am guessing, to define what ERA-40 analyses means later in the article
     as related to running the model with greenhouse gas forcing, but the description is
     brief, and most readers would need to fully understand that this is what ERA-40 analyses
     mean, because the description does not seem consistent with the title ERA-40 analyses.
     Abstract ---- The simulation is described as matching quite well the CRUTEM2v data, but
     does not describe the time period.
     Overall --- There are some major question unaddressed by this analysis that I expect
     should have been tackled.  For example, there is little attention in the text to day
     versus night temperature changes in the ERA-40 versus observational data sets.  Although
     the Jones et al data do not resolve the day-night temperatures others data sets do and
     it seems rather fundamental to helping resolve the causes of any differences.  The
     nighttime temperatures in many respects are divorced from the temperatures at the so
     called level 40 or 850 hPa temperatures and need to be addressed to confirm some the
     inferences the authors make regarding the changes in temperature throughout the
     planetary boundary layer in the ERA-40 as related to the interpretation of the Cai and
     Kalnay results.
     Page 4 --- 2nd paragraph --- not clear as to what is being compared as there is not
     quantitative estimate as to the impact of using the screen level temperatures in the
     estimate of soil temperature and moisture.  How can the authors be certain that this
     does not have a major impact on screen temperatures.  I would have expected some
     quantitative experiments to show this is of minor importance.
     Page 5 3rd paragraph --- Definitions lacking as to background forecasts and simulations.
     Page 5 last paragraph --- Again it is confusing to use the term analysed monthly
     anomalies and ERA-40 analyeses  --- what's the difference.  Sloppy use  of the term
     analysed.
     Page 5 last sentence --- This is not true for the CRU data and all other observation
     data sets based on non synoptic data!
     Page 7 3rd paragraph --- Seems like a lot of hand waving here, without no supporting
     quantitative analysis.
     Page 8 last sentence --- Again the reader is left wondering what is being discussed
     (Analyses or simulations) and then what the difference is between the two.
     Page 9 2nd paragraph --- There is never an rationale provided as to why the authors
     choose to consider trends since 1979.  I think I know why, but why make the reader
     guess?
     Page 11 1st paragraph --- Again no definition of what a background forecast of the data
     assimilation.   It seems as if this paper was written for colleagues within the authors
     respective branches or Divisions and not the atmos sci community.
     Page 18 3rd paragraph --- The hand waving argument here is that since boundary layer
     temp trends in ERA-40 are similar after 1979 this implies the Kalnay & Cai results
     conclusions are in doubt.  Again, however, the authors need to show that the use of the
     2m screen temps for the soil moisture and temp do not effect much of the boundary layer
     trends.  Day/night differences in trends may be key, but this is not smoking gun because
     greenhouse gas increases have been shown to lead to differential day night temp trends.

     --
     --------------------------------------------------
     Adrian Simmons
     Head of Data Division
     European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts
     Shinfield Park, Reading, RG2 9AX, UK
     Phone: +44 118 949 9700
     Fax:   +44 118 986 9450
     --------------------------------------------------
     --
     --------------------------------------------------
     Adrian Simmons
     Head of Data Division
     European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts
     Shinfield Park, Reading, RG2 9AX, UK
     Phone: +44 118 949 9700
     Fax:   +44 118 986 9450
     --------------------------------------------------

   Prof. Phil Jones
   Climatic Research Unit        Telephone +44 (0) 1603 592090
   School of Environmental Sciences    Fax +44 (0) 1603 507784
   University of East Anglia
   Norwich                          Email    p.jones@uea.ac.uk
   NR4 7TJ
   UK
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