date: Thu Apr 19 20:55:06 2001
from: Mike Hulme <m.hulme@uea.ac.uk>
subject: Re: Cross section of climate opinions
to: "Simon Torok" <S.Torok@uea.ac.uk>

   At 17:08 19/04/01 +0100, you wrote:

     Hi all,
     As a trusted group of climatologists, I hope to seek your views on the
     following two questions (just a few lines of the top of your head, please
     don't spend any time on this).
     I am meeting a writer and producer from the BBC on Monday regarding a drama
     series they are working on about climatologists. They have sent me a long
     list of questions, most of which are easy to answer. But a couple sought
     wider views -- I have my own views but I wanted to see what a few other
     people thought. The questions are as follows:
     1) Is there any serious doubt among the scientific community that global
     warming is a genuine phenomenon? What do scientists say to politicians who
     argue that it is nothing more than a blip?

   3 dimensions here -
   is world warming - almost certainly yes (only a few diehards would now fundamentally
   question the UEA/Hadley 140 year record)
   is it unusual - slightly more room for argument, but still the weight of evidence clearly
   points to some non-natural forcing, especially over the last 50 years.  No convincing piece
   of science has yet been published that gives a theoretical and modelling basis for the last
   50 years warming that *excludes* rises in GHG concentrations
   what balance of natural and human factors - 90:10 or 10:90?  best evidence would suggest a
   dominant role for human influence, but again slightly more room for maneouvre

     2) Are scientists frustrated by politicians? Do they believe anything
     serious is being done?

   Not frustrated if you know anything about politics.  In fact, more frustration comes from
   the media than from politicians.  Our late 20th century democratic process however is not
   well suited to finding and implementing solutions to very (in political terms) long-term
   problems such as climate change management.  Yes, there are some very serious things being
   done (in UK and elsewhere), but politics is a messy business and politicians can only
   advance slightly beyond the position that public opinion is at.

     I'll be able to incorporate your views if you get back to me by 5pm Friday
     (UK time). Let me know if you're interested in hearing more about the
     project or want to see the full list of questions.
     Thanks very much, Simon.
     =-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-Dr Simon Torok-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=
     External Communication Manager                   Phone: (01603) 593 906
     Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research   Mobile: (07880) 547 843
     School of Environmental Sciences                 Fax: (01603) 593 901
     University of East Anglia, Norwich, NR4 7TJ, UK
     Email: s.torok@uea.ac.uk                          Web: [1]www.tyndall.ac.uk
     =-=-=-=-=-=-=-24 hour UEA media number: (01603) 592 203-=-=-=-=-=--=-=-=

