cc: "'Tim Lenton'" <T.Lenton@uea.ac.uk>, <c.lequere@uea.ac.uk>
date: Wed, 14 Feb 2007 15:13:33 -0000
from: "Andrew Watson" <a.watson@uea.ac.uk>
subject: Re: re; IPCC and RAE 
to: "Jacquie Burgess" <Jacquie.Burgess@uea.ac.uk>, <p.jones@uea.ac.uk>

   I'd agree probably 10 years away to go from weather forecasting to ~ annual scale. But the
   "big climate picture" includes ocean feedbacks on all time scales, carbon and other
   elemental cycles, etc. and it has to be several decades before that is sorted out I would
   think. So I would guess that it will not be models or theory, but observation that will
   provide the answer to the question of how the climate will change in many decades time.

   Cheers

   Andy



   ----- Original Message -----

   From: [1]Jacquie Burgess

   To: [2]p.jones@uea.ac.uk

   Cc: [3]'Andrew Watson' ; [4]'Tim Lenton' ; [5]c.lequere@uea.ac.uk

   Sent: Wednesday, February 14, 2007 11:23 AM

   Subject: re; IPCC and RAE

   Dear Phil, Andy, Tim and Corinne,

   I came across the following comment in New Scientist Editorial this week  - you probably
   saw it (?).  A quote from Kevin Trenberth (US NCAR) saying we want seamless predictions
   that can go from weather forecasts, through predicting the ocean processes behind variables
   like El Nino and Atlantic hurricanes, right up to the big climate picture.


   Just a query - how close would we be to being able to deliver that?

   Jacquie




   Jacquie Burgess

   Centre for Environmental Risk

   School of Environmental Sciences

   UEA , Norwich NR4 7TJ

   tel: (0)1603 593129

   fax: (0)1603 593739

   [6]www.uea.ac.uk/env/cer

