date: Thu May 26 15:35:35 2005
from: Phil Jones <p.jones@uea.ac.uk>
subject: Re: revising section on tropospheric temps for IPCC Chapter 9
to: Kevin Trenberth <trenbert@ucar.edu>

    Kevin,
       See if Bill can split the differences between day and night launches. If he has data
   that
    splits the 00 from 12Z, it's not too difficult to separate the two as the tropics mostly
   have
    near 12 hr days and nights.  There are probably only a few sites that do both. Might be
    that only Singapore, Darwin, Tahiti and a Caribbean one have both. Maybe more in
    Australian region.
    Cheers
    Phil
   At 15:16 26/05/2005, you wrote:

     Hi all
     I am happy with 3.4.1 and it accommodates the latest developments, almost.  I am
     attaching the text.
     However, yesterday we got a new paper from Susan Solomon and David Thmopson (Thompson
     and Soilomon 2005) J Clim "Recent stratospheric climate trends: global structure and
     tropospheric linkages"
     I read it last night and I think a lot of it is wrong.  It is based on radiosondes and
     NCEP reanalyses.  Yesterday I played golf with Bill Randel who tells me he had done what
     I have been advocating for some time now: taking the MSU record and differencing it with
     sonde records at those locations.  He says it is very revealing and shows spurious
     unphysical features in ALL tropical sondings.  He has completed the work and is writing
     it up. But I have not seen any of the results. Please don't pass this on.  Fu is also
     working on the sonde MSU comparison.
     Kevin
     Phil Jones wrote:

      Neville,
          Attached for your perusal only is the Carl/Wentz pdf of the latest RSS work. Roy
     Spencer
      admitted to a mistake in the UAH 2LT work at the Chicago CCSP meeting May 16-17.
      Relates to a sign on the correction for diurnal cycle changes. John Christy has told me
      that he will send me their revised version. His email of May 20 didn't make much sense
     -
      he's clearly wriggling, saying the mistake isn't that important. We will likely know
     more
      in a few weeks, so this issue isn't likely to be resolved in time for the FOD.
          With this problem and the earlier changes, UAH are losing credibility. I've not yet
     looked
      at our section in 3.4.1 but for the moment we will be going with the attachment and
     also
      with recent Fu papers.
            Upshot of all this is that the likely outlier now is the sondes. John Lanzante
     and the HC
      (probably) are working on looking at tropical sondes and separating them into day and
     night
      launches if at all possible.
            Ben Santer is going to keep me informed of how CCSP progresses. David should hear
      as well at some stage during June. They are on a tight timeframe now. There is an 8
     week
      open review period for CCSP, but not till after Aug 12. This open review requires open
     access
      to all pdfs in press (no passwords or any control), so there may be issues wrt Science
      submissions (the attached and a paper by Ben et al.).
           David and/or Kevin may elaborate, but it seems watch this space is the only advice
     I
      can give.  I could send our latest draft, but I'm not sure if I have all the figures
     for the
      relevant section.
      Cheers
      Phil
     At 08:03 26/05/2005, Neville Nicholls wrote:

     Hi David.
     I am just starting the process of revising what Chapter 9 will be saying about free
     atmosphere temperature. My intention is to start with what Chapter 3 will be saying in
     the FOD. I wouldnt want to stray too far from what you are going to say. Could you let
     me know if you think there will be substantial changes from your ZOD, and if so, let me
     know the broad direction of such changes? It would be great to have access to your early
     re-drafts even before I start revising Chapter 9, so we can ensure compatability.
     I am also interested in some recent work by RSS (I think) apparently finding more
     problems with the UAH data. I dont  have details of this, so I may be completely wrong -
     are you aware of such work?
     Cheers,
     Neville
     Neville Nicholls
     Bureau of Meteorology Research Centre
     9th Floor, 700 Collins Street
     Docklands,Melbourne, AUSTRALIA
     PO Box 1289K, Melbourne, AUSTRALIA 3001
     Phone: +61 (0)3 9669 4407
     Fax: +61 (0)3 9669 4660

     Prof. Phil Jones
     Climatic Research Unit        Telephone +44 (0) 1603 592090
     School of Environmental Sciences    Fax +44 (0) 1603 507784
     University of East Anglia
     Norwich                          Email    p.jones@uea.ac.uk
     NR4 7TJ
     UK
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     --
     ****************
     Kevin E. Trenberth                              e-mail: trenbert@ucar.edu
     Climate Analysis Section, NCAR                  [1]www.cgd.ucar.edu/cas/
     P. O. Box 3000,                                 (303) 497 1318
     Boulder, CO 80307                               (303) 497 1333 (fax)
     Street address: 1850 Table Mesa Drive, Boulder, CO  80303

   Prof. Phil Jones
   Climatic Research Unit        Telephone +44 (0) 1603 592090
   School of Environmental Sciences    Fax +44 (0) 1603 507784
   University of East Anglia
   Norwich                          Email    p.jones@uea.ac.uk
   NR4 7TJ
   UK
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