date: Mon Oct 20 14:09:27 2008
from: Phil Jones <p.jones@uea.ac.uk>
subject: Re: [Env.faculty] New climate degree title
to: "Alan Kendall" <A.Kendall@uea.ac.uk>

    Alan,
      It would be unfair to get involved in a bit with you, as I know
    a couple of things you don't.
    1. The Arctic issue. We're getting SST data in from ships travelling around
    in regions where we haven't had any data from for the 1961-90 base period.
    We're still figuring out how to use these. However we do it, it will only
    raise temperatures.
    2. SST is being measured differently now than it was in the 1980s. Before
    about 1990 it was almost exclusively from ships. Automatic instruments called
    drifters began to be deployed (by both research and some merchant ships). They
    do what the name implies - drift around - and send SST an sea-level pressure
    measurements back to ground stations by satellites. They work for a few years
    till they pack up or get beached. The issue is that they now (2008) form about
    85% of the SST data coming in. With now about 15 years of overlap, we are
    learning that their SST measurements are about 0.1 deg C cooler than the ships -
    probably because on average they measure at slightly different depths than
    the ships. Any way the 1961-90 base period is a ship-based base period,
    so when the adjustments have been completed we will likely raise SST values
    by about 0.1 deg C now, reducing to zero gradually back to the mid-1990s.  This
    type of adjustment has to be made, and it can only be made in retrospect. How
    the temperature is measured is as important as the temperature value itself.
    The drifters are giving us much better spatial coverage - especially the Southern Oceans.
    We will probably have to revise our 1961-90 averages for these regions, now we
    have many more observations for them - not just drifters but satellite estimates as well.
    I discussed this issue in my lectures to the MSc students last week. There will
    be a paper submitted on the work in the spring.   Land data are unaffected.
    Measuring surface temperature is not as easy it may appear.
    Cheers
    Phil
   At 10:55 20/10/2008, you wrote:

     Dear all,  I don't intend to get into a debate about this (my suggestion was made
     primarily on the basis that climate changes are different in varied parts of the Earth)
     but Phil's disparaging comment about "a few Russian mavericks" denies the existence of
     almost an entire group of specialists worldwide - the solar physicists - who seem to
     have had a particularly rough time in recent years - being demonized by AGW advocates
     for their views about climate that fly counter to the "IPCC consensus".

     I've offered my opinion on the degree title: but I won't be teaching on it and its
     really up to those who will contribute to decide (with advice from Admissions).  The
     important thing is to get a degree proposal out there now and not be pipped to the post
     by someone else.

     AlanK

     PS Phil, I'd be willing to make a small bet with you that over the next 5 years we will
     have increasing evidence of a cooling - with the PDO entered into a cool phase; cycle 24
     of the Sun still not officially arriving yet and increasing "Earthshine" I think I would
     be onto a winner.  But then I'm probably a maverick!  Shall we say 100 or a really good
     bottle of wine ?


          ----- Original Message -----
          From: [1]Phil Jones
          To: [2]Alan Kendall ; [3]Burgess Jacquelin Prof (ENV) ; [4]env.faculty@uea.ac.uk
          Sent: Monday, October 20, 2008 9:26 AM
          Subject: Re: [Env.faculty] New climate degree title
           Alan,
             The title Climate Change (no plural) is fine. It is only a few Russian mavericks,
          who
           seem to think we are heading for cooling. If the Russian govt thought this why did
          they
           bother putting a flag at the bottom of the Arctic under the North Pole!
              The Telegraph story below is as usual over the top with refugees fleeing into
          the
           Antarctic, but the Arctic is very warm at the moment.
           Cheers
           Phil
          [5]http://www.telegraph.co.uk/earth/main.jhtml?xml=/earth/2008/10/17/eaarctic117.xml
          Arctic air temperature at record high due to sea ice loss
          By Paul Eccleston
          Last Updated: 4:01pm BST 17/10/2008
          The continuing loss of sea ice has pushed the air temperature in the Arctic to a
          record high above normal, scientists have revealed.
          Arctic ice melting 'faster than predicted'
          Antarctic 'not as warm as feared'
          Climate change study predicts refugees fleeing into Antarctica
          Less summer ice - which deflects solar radiation - has resulted in a rise in both
          the ocean and atmospheric temperature.

          []
          A boat skims through melting ice on the west coast of Greenland
          The US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) says autumn air
          temperatures in the region are at a record 5C (9F) above average.
          The annual NOAA report, which monitors climate change, said there has been a
          near-record loss of summer sea ice, though not as much as last year which was the
          warmest on record for the Arctic, continuing a trend that began in the mid-1960s.
          They also report a loss of surface ice in Greenland.
          Increased temperatures have an impact on both land and marine creatures and are
          likely to result in even less ice next year, the report says.
          James Overland, an oceanographer at NOAA's Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory
          in Seattle and a lead author of the report, said: "Changes in the Arctic show a
          domino effect from multiple causes more clearly than in other regions.
          "It's a sensitive system and often reflects changes in relatively fast and dramatic
          ways."
          In 2006 the NOAA's Climate Program Office set up the Arctic Report Card as a means
          of monitoring changes in the Arctic atmosphere, sea ice, biology, ocean, land and
          Greenland.
          This year three of the six areas - atmosphere, sea ice, and Greenland - are coded
          red indicating that the changes are strongly attributed to warming. Biology, ocean
          and land are coded yellow, indicating mixed signals. In 2007 there were two red
          areas, atmosphere and sea ice, and four coded yellow.
          The report's chief editor Jackie Richter-Menge of the US Army Corps of Engineers
          (USACE) Cold Regions Research and Engineering Laboratory, said: "The information
          combines to tell a story of widespread and, in some cases, dramatic effects of an
          overall warming of the Arctic system."
          Researchers at the National Snow and Ice Data Centre, part of the University of
          Colorado, reported last month that Arctic sea ice melted to its second-lowest level
          this summer. They said it is now 34 per cent below the long-term average from 1979
          to 2000 but nine per cent above the record low set in 2007.
          Professor Peter Wadhams, professor of ocean physics at Cambridge University and head
          of the Polar Physics Group, said the air temperature on the Arctic coastline would
          normally be 0C but this year and last year a larger area of water - where summer
          ice had disappeared - had led to a rise.
          "This temperature anomaly has also extended 1,000 kilometres inland towards the
          coasts of Alaska and Siberia and is causing the permafrost to melt and methane
          stored in it to leak," he said.
          "The warmer temperatures will also take longer to dissipate, the autumn freeze will
          take longer, meaning thinner ice. There is always a fluctuation in the thickness of
          the ice year on year and the loss this year wasn't as extreme as last year - but it
          was almost.
          "We have got to a tipping point where the breakdown of ice will lead to it
          disappearing altogether in the summer."
          Prof Wadhams said changes brought by a warmer climate were happening across the
          globe at all latitudes but could be most clearly seen in the Arctic.
          "Satellite pictures clearly show the open water where ice used to be. It is the most
          obvious example of climate change in action which is changing the appearance of the
          planet," he said.
          Information appearing on telegraph.co.uk is the copyright of Telegraph Media Group
          Limited and must not be reproduced in any medium without licence. For the full
          copyright statement see Copyright
          At 08:36 20/10/2008, Alan Kendall wrote:

          Might I suggest that the degree title be Climate Changes.  This would reflect that
          different regions of the Earth suffer very different types of change and also would
          hedge bets (if the Russians are correct and we are heading towards a long phase of
          climate cooling).

          May I also suggest that we consult more with DEV in that they have staff already in
          place (and may have additional recruitment) in this subject and could add a
          developing world perspective?

          AlanK

          ----- Original Message -----

                From: [6]Burgess Jacquelin Prof (ENV)
                To: [7]env.faculty@uea.ac.uk
                Sent: Friday, October 17, 2008 3:50 PM
                Subject: [Env.faculty] New climate degree title
                Colleagues,
                In the School Board discussions on Wednesday, there was general support for a
                new Climate BSc/MSci  - but the question of what specifically it should be
                called was not properly discussed as we ran out of time.

                From the financial perspective, Climate and Society isnt sensible, as it is
                likely to end up in the mixed subject category like EGID  which means less
                money per student.

                We would want to allow students to specialise in the science or the policy end
                of things if they wish.  But to understand climate change, students coming
                from a hard science perspective need also to gain some understanding of the
                social, political and ethical issues behind climate change.  And students
                coming from a softer starting point need to understand enough of the
                principles of the atmospheric and ocean physics and biogeochemistry to be able
                to base policy advice firmly on the science base.  This leads us to conclude
                that  a single title - Climate Change - with a narrative in the prospectus and
                a presentation at the open days that makes clear that we cover both ends of
                the spectrum, with scope to specialise in either or remain broad.  With the
                two titles currently proposed,  we can see a real danger of attracting the
                relatively small subset of applicants who see themselves as hard line
                scientists; a larger group of applicants looking for a climate studies type of
                degree, and miss the people in between who form the bulk of the ones we want
                to attract (the hard science applicants are really important, but are a
                minority).

                The degree title is partly a marketing tool to get applicants to look at the
                prospectus and see the detail of what is on offer; partly a lever to land a
                job after graduating.  Climate Change will probably make most sense to
                informed 18 year olds and to their potential employers.

                As we need to tell Admissions very soon what we want to do for the 2009
                prospectus, could you please let Chris Flack know, by the end of Tuesday
                (21st) if this proposal is *not* acceptable to you.

                Jacquie and Alastair
                  _________________________________________________________________________

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          Prof. Phil Jones
          Climatic Research Unit        Telephone +44 (0) 1603 592090
          School of Environmental Sciences    Fax +44 (0) 1603 507784
          University of East Anglia
          Norwich                          Email    p.jones@uea.ac.uk
          NR4 7TJ
          UK
          ----------------------------------------------------------------------------

     Prof. Phil Jones
     Climatic Research Unit        Telephone +44 (0) 1603 592090
     School of Environmental Sciences    Fax +44 (0) 1603 507784
     University of East Anglia
     Norwich                          Email    p.jones@uea.ac.uk
     NR4 7TJ
     UK
     ----------------------------------------------------------------------------

