date: Mon Jan 17 10:58:36 2005
from: Phil Jones <p.jones@uea.ac.uk>
subject: Re: FW: FW: FYI --- better read this sitting down
to: "Tett, Simon" <simon.tett@metoffice.gov.uk>

    Simon,
       Read Inhofe's speech a few days after it came out. Hans' comments
    were unfortunate if true. Hans is still of the opinion that the late-20th
    century is the warmest period of the last millennium.  The basic message
    should still be this.
       As for the Arctic, the following bit of text is currently in the IPCC
    report - submitted last week to WGI.
    Snow cover has decreased in many NH regions, particularly in the spring season and this is
   consistent with greater increases in spring than autumn temperatures in mid-latitude
   regions. The reduction in frost days is principally due to an earlier last day of frost in
   spring rather than a later start to the frost season in autumn. Sea-ice extents have
   decreased in the Arctic, particularly in the spring and summer seasons, and patterns of the
   changes are consistent with regions showing a temperature increase. Overall the Arctic
   (north of 65N) average annual temperature has increased since the 1960s and is now warmer
   (at the decade timescale) than conditions experienced during the 1920-45 period.  The
   recent warm period in the Arctic is, however, not yet as long as that in the early-to-mid
   20th century. Patterns of Arctic warmth in the two periods (1920-45 and since 1990) are
   also quite different, as they are in almost all regions of the world with adequate data for
   the earlier period. Patterns of recent warming in the Arctic are more consistent with
   changes in the NAM than those earlier in the 20th century.
     It is in an concluding section and I think we will need to add a figure into the main
    part of the text. So Arctic warmth and its 'impression in a time series plot'
    depends how much you smooth it. If you decadally smooth then the last 15
    years are warmest.
     There wasn't a time series for the Arctic in the TAR. We need one - we have an
    SST series for the N. Atlantic north of 35N, which shows recent period way warmer
    than earlier in the 20th century.
      Maybe I'll see you next week at Exeter - Jan 26 or better 27th.
    Cheers
    Phil
   At 06:31 16/01/2005, you wrote:

     Hi Phil,
             picked the wrong address! Sorry as you won't get this for
     another week (as I write in on a plane to the US)
     S
     Dr Simon Tett  Managing Scientist, Data development and applications.
     Met Office       Hadley Centre (Reading Unit)
     Meteorology Building,  University of Reading Reading RG6 6BB
     Tel: +44 (0)118 378 5614  Fax +44 (0)118 378 5615
     Mobex: +44-(0)1392 886886
     E-mail: simon.tett@metoffice.gov.uk   [1]http://www.metoffice.gov.uk
     Global climate data sets are available from [2]http://www.hadobs.org
     -----Original Message-----
     From: Jones, Philip [[3]mailto:philip.jones@metoffice.gov.uk]
     Sent: 07 January 2005 12:44

   Prof. Phil Jones
   Climatic Research Unit        Telephone +44 (0) 1603 592090
   School of Environmental Sciences    Fax +44 (0) 1603 507784
   University of East Anglia
   Norwich                          Email    p.jones@uea.ac.uk
   NR4 7TJ
   UK
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