cc: schlesin@atmos.uiuc.edu
date: Wed, 28 Feb 2007 13:15:40 -0600
from: Michael Schlesinger <schlesin@atmos.uiuc.edu>
subject: Re: Fred Singer's Hypothesis
to: Phil Jones <p.jones@uea.ac.uk>

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Phil:

Attached are 2 papers by Gerard Bond that 
describe a 1470-year oscillation in the Holocene.

What are your thoughts on these papers?

Michael

>Michael,
>      Not that I've ever seen.   You have to believe the various
>  series for the last 1000 years, and then they aren't long enough.
>     I've just been looking at isotope series from some Greenland cores
>  for the last 10K years and there was no evidence to my eyes.
>  Not done any spectral analysis though !
>
>  Cheers
>  Phil
>
>
>At 16:11 26/02/2007, you wrote:
>>Phil:
>>
>>Is there any evidence for a 1500-year cycle in the Holocene?
>>
>>Michael
>>
>>>Mike,
>>>      The YD is a very distinct event. It is now almost exactly dated -
>>>  see this paper.
>>>
>>>  Rasmussen et al. (2006) A new Greenland ice 
>>>chronology for the last glacial termination, 
>>>JGR 111, D06102, doi:10.1029/JD2005006079.
>>>
>>>  Based on cross-dated Greenland ice cores, 
>>>the onset now dated to 12896 b2K  140 years
>>>End dated to 11703 b2K  100 years
>>>Duration of 1193  40 years
>>>
>>>  b2k is AD 2000
>>>
>>>  The 8.2K event is a little less clear, but still has a duration that can be
>>>  estimated.
>>>
>>>  These aren't the DO events, but they are similar. They are both very
>>>  abrupt and occurring in the space of a few years. The resolution
>>>  in the ice cores back before 21K is less good, that you can't see the
>>>  events so clearly, but the belief is that 
>>>they are abrupt events not cycles.
>>>
>>>    Also, if he says the CRU data cool after 1998, tell him to work out
>>>  the trend for the period 1998 to 2005 or 2006. The trend is still upwards
>>>  despite starting with the warmest year!
>>>
>>>    See you in South Korea, apparently.
>>>
>>>  Cheers
>>>   Phil
>>>
>>>
>>>
>>>
>>>At 14:04 26/02/2007, you wrote:
>>>>Phil:
>>>>
>>>>I will be on a radio program this (Monday) 
>>>>evening debating global warming with Fred 
>>>>Singer.
>>>>
>>>>According to Fred's book, Unstoppable Global 
>>>>Warming, Every 1,500 Years, the warming we 
>>>>have observed is due to the 1500-year DO 
>>>>'oscillation', not the greenhouse effect.
>>>>
>>>>But, as far as I know: (1) the DO's are an 
>>>>abrupt event, not an oscillation; and (2) the 
>>>>DO events ceased at the end of the last ice 
>>>>age, about 23K years ago.
>>>>
>>>>Accordingly, what are your thoughts on Fred's hypothesis?
>>>>
>>>>Regards,
>>>>
>>>>Michael
>>>
>>>Prof. Phil Jones
>>>Climatic Research Unit        Telephone +44 (0) 1603 592090
>>>School of Environmental Sciences    Fax +44 (0) 1603 507784
>>>University of East Anglia
>>>Norwich                          Email    p.jones@uea.ac.uk
>>>NR4 7TJ
>>>UK 
>>>----------------------------------------------------------------------------
>
>Prof. Phil Jones
>Climatic Research Unit        Telephone +44 (0) 1603 592090
>School of Environmental Sciences    Fax +44 (0) 1603 507784
>University of East Anglia
>Norwich                          Email    p.jones@uea.ac.uk
>NR4 7TJ
>UK 
>---------------------------------------------------------------------------- 
>

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