date: Tue Dec  9 12:58:41 2008
from: Phil Jones <p.jones@uea.ac.uk>
subject: Fwd: Re: [Fwd: Re: News release on 2008's climate]
to: David Parker <david.parker@metoffice.gov.uk>, "Stott, Peter" <peter.stott@metoffice.gov.uk>

    David, Peter,
       Have added a quote in - something I would have said!
    Can you send me the final version, when agreed at your end?
       I know we don't want to say this, but if reporters ask about the
    1940s/1950s SST issue from the Thompson et al paper in May this
    year, we should say we are working on this and expect to submit a
    paper in the spring. I guess at most this will increase recent temps
    by a maximum of 0.05, but more likely 0.03deg C, but we won't mention
    a figure.
    Cheers
    Phil

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     Subject: Re: [Fwd: Re: News release on 2008's climate]
     From: David Parker <david.parker@metoffice.gov.uk>
     To: "Jones, Phil" <p.jones@uea.ac.uk>
     Cc: "Stott, Peter" <peter.stott@metoffice.gov.uk>
     Date: Tue, 09 Dec 2008 12:16:19 +0000
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     Phil
     Thanks. We've decided to use 2000-2008 because that makes the later
     period a year longer. Here is the draft as it now stands: do you want a
     CRU quote in it?
     David
     On Tue, 2008-12-09 at 09:50 +0000, Phil Jones wrote:
     >
     >  Peter, David,
     >    I thought it would be from model runs with all and with just
     > natural forcing.
     >  I just wanted to make sure you had the runs and the calculations to
     > back
     >  up the statements. The numbers seem and sound right.
     >    As for the decades, it is back to the old chestnut of when a decade
     >  ends and a new one begins - and there wasn't a year 0!  I wanted
     >  a statement about the nineties versus the noughties, but I think
     >  the decades end with the years ending in 0, so 2000 was the last
     >  year of the 1990s. It is a pedantic point, so I'm happy to use
     > either,
     >  as it won't make any difference.
     >
     >    We just need the statement in to indicate that the present decade
     > is
     >  warmer than the previous by the amount expected (0.16).
     >
     >    I've just received the 'Avoiding dangerous climate change' doc that
     > Vicky
     >  prepared for Poznan.
     >
     >    That has in the following bit of text.
     >
     >  Some commentators have suggested that global arming has stopped. This
     >  is not the case. The evidence is clear - in the long term, global
     > temperatures are
     >  rising, and humans are largely responsible for this rise.
     >
     >  Global warming does not mean that each year will be warmer that the
     > last -
     >  natural phenomena mean that some years will be much warmer and others
     > cooler.
     >  The El Nino in 1998 gave rise to a record-breaking warm year and the
     > La Nina
     >  in 2007 and 2008 led to temporary cooling. Despite this, 11 of the
     > last 13 years
     >  are the warmest ever on record.
     >
     >  We are saying this in slightly different words.
     >
     >  We are still on for a Dec 15/16 release. I can get the UEA press
     > office on
     >  this for the East Anglian region next week, with you doing the
     > nationals.
     >
     >  Cheers
     >  Phil
     >
     >
     >
     > At 15:56 08/12/2008, Peter Stott wrote:
     > > All,
     > >
     > > A slightly revised version following earlier comments.
     > > The Press Office will want to press-ify it - I imagine that could
     > > include quotes.
     > >
     > > Nikos has calculated from model runs with all vs models runs with
     > > natural how much warmer we are now relative to pre-industrial and
     > > comes
     > > to about 0.68C for last decade which taking the ongoing trends into
     > > account means approx 0.75C warmer at present than we would have
     > > been.
     > > The naturally forced model is pretty flat with some natural warming
     > > early in the 20th century but volcanic cooling later on.
     > >
     > > Don't we want to compare the noughties with the nineties (ie
     > > 1990-1999
     > > vs 2000-2008) rather than 2001-2008 average versus the 1991-2000
     > > average ?
     > >
     > > Peter
     > >
     > > On Fri, 2008-12-05 at 17:29 +0000, David Parker wrote:
     > > > Peter, Gareth
     > > >
     > > > Phil Jones has made comments below on attribution aspects of the
     > > draft
     > > > press release - maybe we can discuss revised wording on Monday or
     > > > Tuesday. My first attempt is attached.
     > > >
     > > > David
     > > > email message attachment, "Forwarded message - Re: News release on
     > > > 2008's climate"
     > > > On Fri, 2008-12-05 at 17:29 +0000, David Parker wrote:
     > > > >   David,
     > > > >      A few comments on the draft - having got back from
     > > Cambridge.
     > > > >
     > > > >   First 2 paras OK.
     > > > >
     > > > >   Para 3 - need to look at the longish sentence. The 0.75 deg C
     > > is
     > > > >   the problem here. In CH 3 we said there was about this warming
     > > from
     > > > >   1907-2006 (and also with the last 5/6 years wrt 1850-99).
     > > Anyway
     > > > >   the 0.75 implies all 20th century warming is down to us. So
     > > without
     > > > >   anthropogenic forcing now we would be as cold as it was about
     > > 1920.
     > > > >
     > > > >   Some of the warming is natural.  What you need to compare is a
     > > > >   model run with all forcing and one with only natural forcing.
     > > I reckon
     > > > >   this difference would be nearer 0.5 to 0.6.
     > > > >
     > > > >   I'd like you to emphasize the need to look at decadal-scale
     > > values -
     > > > >   as Peter seems to have done in the Guardian. We do have short
     > > memories
     > > > >   as Myles says
     > > > >
     > > > >   [4]http://www.scenta.co.uk/nature/news/cit/1737645/-008-will-be-
     > > coolest-year-of-the-decade.htm
     > > > >
     > > > >   Another way to do this is to look at the 2001-2008 average
     > > versus
     > > > > the 1991-2000 average.
     > > > >   Maybe we did this last year - I've a short memory!
     > > > >
     > > > >   Cheers
     > > > >   Phil
     > > > >
     > > > >
     > > > >
     > > > >
     > > > >
     > > > > At 17:45 04/12/2008, you wrote:
     > > > > >Phil
     > > > > >
     > > > > >Thanks.
     > > > > >
     > > > > >If December is cold, CET could be the lowest since 1991, but
     > > this may
     > > > > >not be certain as soon as Dec 16th. So I haven't included it.
     > > Likewise
     > > > > >annual precipitation may be unexceptional if December is dry.
     > > We have of
     > > > > >course included the UK in a large file we sent to WMO and it
     > > will get
     > > > > >into the BAMS review of 2008 and the Weather paper. But if you
     > > wish to
     > > > > >include a UK paragraph, feel free to make suggestions!
     > > > > >
     > > > > >There will be a separate 2009 prediction release in early
     > > January.
     > > > > >
     > > > > >Have a good time in Cambridge,
     > > > > >
     > > > > >David
     > > > > >
     > > > > >
     > > > > >
     > > > > >On Thu, 2008-12-04 at 17:19 +0000, Phil Jones wrote:
     > > > > > >   David,
     > > > > > >     Thanks. I'll look at this tomorrow. In Cambridge
     > > tomorrow
     > > > > > >   - with Rob/Philip, some sort of ACRE meeting. Will get
     > > comments
     > > > > > >   back over the weekend.
     > > > > > >
     > > > > > >      Are you planning the longer press release with more
     > > graphs and
     > > > > > >   UK values?
     > > > > > >
     > > > > > >      Also will there be the 2009 prediction press release
     > > early in
     > > > > > > the New Year?
     > > > > > >   If there is I'll know not to say anything about that in
     > > mid December!
     > > > > > >
     > > > > > >   Cheers
     > > > > > >   Phil
     > > > > > >
     > > > > > >
     > > > > > > At 17:02 04/12/2008, you wrote:
     > > > > > > >Phil, Cathy, Chris
     > > > > > > >
     > > > > > > >Here is a draft of our proposed press release on 2008's
     > > global climate -
     > > > > > > >inputs came mainly from Peter Stott and John Kennedy.
     > > > > > > >
     > > > > > > >Comments welcome. It is due for release on Tuesday December
     > > 16th after
     > > > > > > >the WMO press release.
     > > > > > > >
     > > > > > > >Thanks
     > > > > > > >
     > > > > > > >David
     > > > > > > >--
     > > > > > > >David Parker   Met Office Hadley Centre   FitzRoy Road
     > > EXETER EX1 3PB UK
     > > > > > > >E-mail: david.parker@metoffice.gov.uk
     > > > > > > >Tel: +44-1392-886649  Fax: +44-1392-885681
     > > http:www.metoffice.gov.uk
     > > > > > > >
     > > > > > >
     > > > > > > Prof. Phil Jones
     > > > > > > Climatic Research Unit        Telephone +44 (0) 1603 592090
     > > > > > > School of Environmental Sciences    Fax +44 (0) 1603 507784
     > > > > > > University of East Anglia
     > > > > > > Norwich                          Email    p.jones@uea.ac.uk
     > > > > > > NR4 7TJ
     > > > > > > UK
     > > > > > >
     > > > > >
     > > ----------------------------------------------------------------------------
     > > > > >
     > > > > > >
     > > > > >--
     > > > > >David Parker   Met Office Hadley Centre   FitzRoy Road EXETER
     > > EX1 3PB UK
     > > > > >E-mail: david.parker@metoffice.gov.uk
     > > > > >Tel: +44-1392-886649  Fax: +44-1392-885681
     > > http:www.metoffice.gov.uk
     > > > >
     > > > > Prof. Phil Jones
     > > > > Climatic Research Unit        Telephone +44 (0) 1603 592090
     > > > > School of Environmental Sciences    Fax +44 (0) 1603 507784
     > > > > University of East Anglia
     > > > > Norwich                          Email    p.jones@uea.ac.uk
     > > > > NR4 7TJ
     > > > > UK
     > > > >
     > >
     ----------------------------------------------------------------------------

     > > > >
     > > --
     > > ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
     > >  Dr. Peter Stott
     > >  Head Climate Monitoring and Attribution
     > >  Met Office Hadley Centre, Fitzroy Road, Exeter, EX1 3PB, UK
     > >  Tel: +44 (0)118 378 5613   Fax: +44 (0)118 378 5615
     > >  Mobile: 07753880683
     > >  E-mail:peter.stott@metoffice.gov.uk   [5]http://www.metoffice.gov.uk
     > > ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
     > >
     >
     > Prof. Phil Jones
     > Climatic Research Unit        Telephone +44 (0) 1603 592090
     > School of Environmental Sciences    Fax +44 (0) 1603 507784
     > University of East Anglia
     > Norwich                          Email    p.jones@uea.ac.uk
     > NR4 7TJ
     > UK
     >
     ----------------------------------------------------------------------------

     >
     --
     David Parker   Met Office Hadley Centre   FitzRoy Road EXETER EX1 3PB UK
     E-mail: david.parker@metoffice.gov.uk
     Tel: +44-1392-886649  Fax: +44-1392-885681  http:www.metoffice.gov.uk

   Prof. Phil Jones
   Climatic Research Unit        Telephone +44 (0) 1603 592090
   School of Environmental Sciences    Fax +44 (0) 1603 507784
   University of East Anglia
   Norwich                          Email    p.jones@uea.ac.uk
   NR4 7TJ
   UK
   ----------------------------------------------------------------------------

