date: Fri, 7 Sep 2007 17:00:04 +0200
from: "Christian Kremer \(EPP\)" <ckremer@epp.eu>
subject: RE: EPP Document on Climate Change
to: "'Phil Jones'" <p.jones@uea.ac.uk>

   Dear Phil,



   Thanks alot for your comments. You are right about the sceptics (I'd rather call them
   deniers) and I am currently trying very hard to keep a phrasing in the text which accepts
   the scientific consensus. I think it is not credible to call for tough measures to limit
   emissions when at the same time questioning the scientific basis. And in many aspects, the
   IPCC reports were quite conservative in their estimations and certainly not alarmist.



   Concerning the 2  C limit: from my point of view, it is 2  C increase globally in
   comparison to pre-industrial times. A colleague of yours from East Anglia University wrote
   an interesting article on the "tipping points" which gives an indication that the 2  C is
   rather at the upper end if we want to avoid dangerous climate change (especially as far as
   Arctic Sea Ice is concerned) but already that will be hard to get...and to set a goal below
   450 ppm equivalent seems to me too unrealistic to put forward. The uncertainty of course is
   what additional warming the reduced albedo from complete absence of Arctic Sea Ice would
   produce and how this would influence other positive feedbacks such as the melting of the
   Greenland ice sheet. As far as I understand (and I also follow the realclimate website) the
   insecurity about the behaviour of melting ice sheets is extremely high?



   Kind regards



   Christian





   **************************************
   Christian Kremer
   Deputy Secretary General
   European People's Party
   Handelsstraat 10
   B-1000 Brussels

   phone   +32-2-285.41.48
   fax        +32-2-285.41.41

   [1]ckremer@epp.eu
   [2]www.epp.eu

   -----Original Message-----
   From: Phil Jones [mailto:p.jones@uea.ac.uk]
   Sent: Thursday, September 06, 2007 6:40 PM
   To: ckremer@epp.eu
   Subject: Re: EPP Document on Climate Change

      Christian,
          There is not a lot wrong with the science part of your document (the first 10pp).
      It is, after all, based on the IPCC Reports from earlier this year. There will be
      one more, a Synthesis one, in Valencia in November.
      A few thoughts
      1. p38-39 It may seem undeniable, but I can assure that there a lot of vociferous
      skeptics out there. They aren't all retired and some of them seem to have influence
      through writing op-ed pieces in newspapers. A lot of the public in Britain seem
      to believe that there is disagreement amongst the scientists. There have been
      surveys in Britain that show this. I know it first hand from talking to my neighbours
      in the village I live in!   There is very little disagreement by the way, but perhaps
      we not all talking consistently.
       The skeptics are gearing up, I believe, for a large assault on the science in the
     coming
      months. There is nothing to worry about. It just distracts us from doing the work
      we ought to be doing. They just try to discredit by slinging mud hoping some will
      stick. Apologies for talking in English cliches!
      p46-47 The 2 deg C limit is talked about by a lot within Europe. It is never
      defined though what it means. Is it 2 deg C for the globe or for Europe?
      Also when is/was the base against which the 2 deg C is calculated from?
      I know you don't know the answer, but I don't either!
       I think it is plucked out of thin air. I think it is too high as well. If it is 2 deg
     C
      globally, this could be more in Europe - especially the northern part. A
      better limit might be maintaining some summer Arctic sea ice!
       Recall that I said that whatever we do now, will not have any effect until 2040.
      Perhaps you can get this point in somewhere.
      p87  carbon (dioxide missing).
      p125 no idea where you have got last 65000 years from.
        I think this may come from the fact that CO2 and CH4 are much higher than they
      have been for the last 650000 years.  Recent post IPCC work now extends
      this back 800000 years.
      p158-163  Try to get across the concept of greater variability of precipitation
      patterns. My neighbours have difficulty with this. They ask, how can I
      say East Anglia will have more floods and more droughts. This is exactly
      what happens if you have more variable precipitation, which is far more
      important than changes in the average rainfall.
      Finally, perhaps you need to make more of the Greek fires. I know
      some may have been started deliberately, but the conditions made them
      worse.  There might be some monetary costs of these (in addition to the human deaths),
      as well as saying what resources will be needed to replant and how long
      it is going to take (>30 years probably) to get the forests back.
      Cheers
      Phil
     At 14:20 05/09/2007, you wrote:

     Dear Mr Jones,

     Again I would like to thank you very much for your contribution in Ioannina in July. I
     think it was very important for the participants to be confronted with the scientific
     evidence which currently is available. I skipped my summer holiday for some reading on
     the issue and I am now certainly even more worried than I was before.

     Enclosed you find the new draft document on climate change. I am still waiting for
     comments from some people (so this version is only preliminary) but I would be very
     happy if you could have a quick look on it (especially as far as the scientific
     situation is concerned). If you have any changes or additions, please let me know.

     Kind regards

     Christian Kremer

     **************************************
     Christian Kremer
     Deputy Secretary General
     European People's Party
     Handelsstraat 10
     B-1000 Brussels

     phone   +32-2-285.41.48
     fax        +32-2-285.41.41

     [3]ckremer@epp.eu
     [4]www.epp.eu


     Prof. Phil Jones
     Climatic Research Unit        Telephone +44 (0) 1603 592090
     School of Environmental Sciences    Fax +44 (0) 1603 507784
     University of East Anglia
     Norwich                          Email    p.jones@uea.ac.uk
     NR4 7TJ
     UK
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