cc: arnell_Nigel,e.tompkins
date: Fri Feb 27 17:32:34 2004
from: Mike Hulme <m.hulme@uea.ac.uk>
subject: Re: climate change, THC and fuel poverty
to: <dresnes@psi.org.uk>

   Dear Simon,
   This is an interesting project.  It has relevance with at least 3 of our Tyndall Centre
   projects:
   - domestic tradeable quotas led by Kevin Anderson
   [1]http://www.tyndall.ac.uk/research/theme2/summary_t3_22.shtml
   - the 40% house led by Brenda Boardman
   [2]http://www.tyndall.ac.uk/research/theme2/summary_t2_23.shtml
   - vulnerability to rapid climate change led by Nigel Arnell at Southampton.
   I do indeed have some views on what you are proposing, most notably rather worried by the
   implicit weight of 0.33 you give to cooling scenarios!  This I do not believe is justified.
   I would like to discuss some of these issues with you.  I suggest you try phoning me next
   Friday - 5th March.
   If it is OK with you I will forward this information to my colleagues running the
   vulnerability project.  This may have some relevance for them.
   Regards,
   Mike
   At 16:06 23/02/2004 +0000, you wrote:

     Dear Professor Hulme
     I'm starting work on a new ESRC project on climate change and fuel poverty. The
     idea is to look at what might happen to fuel poverty in 2030 with various scenarios for
     climate change, energy efficiency of buildings, price of energy and development of
     incomes. I've attached the project description which will give you more information
     about it.
     At the start of the project, I'm consulting a range of experts. I identified you as an
     expert on rapid climate change. I'm looking for three scenarios for each of the four
     dimensions. For climate change, we want a 'likely' warming scenario, a rapid
     warming scenario and a scenario with cooling due to early collapse of the THC.
     I've read your Tyndall paper and I know you think it is very unlikely to happen soon.
     Just how unlikely? Do you think the back-of-the-envelope estimates I have suggested
     for the magnitude are reasonable or too optimistic or pessimistic? Can you point me
     in the direction of other literature on the subject? We're particularly interested in
     the
     seasonal pattern of warming or cooling because that influences the effect on enegy
     consumption, as well as the degree or warming or cooling.
     Who do you think would be other good people to talk about rapid climate change,
     particularly the effects of collapse of the THC?
     I'd like to talk about these issues with you, but I though I should ask you to think
     about it first. Can I call you to discuss it? When would be a good time over the next
     few days?
     best regards
     Simon
     --
     Dr Simon Dresner
     Environment Group
     Policy Studies Institute
     100 Park Village East
     London NW1 3SR
     tel: 020 7468 2265
     fax: 020 7388 0914
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