date: Tue, 30 Oct 2007 13:23:19 +0000
from: Tim Osborn <t.osborn@uea.ac.uk>
subject: recently submitted paper abstract
to: cru.all@uea

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Hi everyone,

we decided a while ago that when papers are submitted we should email 
around a copy of the abstract to everyone in CRU so we can keep up 
with forthcoming work and not be taken by surprise when some relevant 
work gets published.  I keep forgetting to do this (as do 
others)!  But, in case anyone out there has an interest in polar 
bears, this has just been submitted....

O'Neill SJ, Osborn TJ, Hulme M, Lorenzoni I, Watkinson AR (2007) 
Expert assessment of the uncertainties of polar bear population 
dynamics under climate change. Submitted to Journal of Applied Ecology.

Abstract

Polar bear population dynamics under climate change has become a 
controversial topic. A survey of expert opinion (the first ever 
undertaken for a particular species) based on modelled sea-ice data 
was performed in order to quantify the trends and variance 
surrounding possible impacts of climate change on polar bear populations.

1. Polar bears Ursus maritimus have become an iconic species in the 
communication of climate change, with media coverage implying a rapid 
population decline. This contrasts with scientific research, which 
indicates that most populations are currently stable or growing. 
Negative impacts of climatic warming on polar bears have been 
suggested, but cannot be quantified as no models yet exist to analyse 
the relationship between polar bear population dynamics and climate change.

2. Ten polar bear experts participated in an expert opinion survey, 
quantifying the trends and variance surrounding possible impacts of 
climate change on polar bear populations. The experts were provided 
with maps and time series of sea-ice extent and duration to 2050, 
simulated under mid-range emissions scenario SRES A1B. Expert 
responses for future polar bear habitat range and population size 
across the Arctic, and for population size in five regions, were 
obtained. Experts were asked to define 'best conservation practice', 
and to re-evaluate the total Arctic population projection if this 
best practice was implemented.

3. Most experts project a substantial decline in polar bear range and 
population across the Arctic, and in population across each region. 
Expert best estimates for total Arctic polar bear population size lie 
from no change to a 70% decrease relative to today; with half the 
experts projecting at least a 30% decrease. The median best estimates 
show the Barents Sea, Hudson Bay and the Chukchi Sea populations 
experiencing the greatest population decline under this scenario. 
There is much uncertainty both within and between expert responses, 
especially in little-researched regions such as the Chukchi Sea.

4. Synthesis and Applications. The responses of experts suggest polar 
bear populations will undergo significant declines by 2050, even 
implementing best management practices, under the scenario of 
climatic warming outlined here. In order to minimise population 
decline many experts believed that a precautionary approach to 
hunting is needed. However, unless conservation management of polar 
bears is teamed with global mitigation efforts there is little 
prospect of preventing significant population declines.



Dr Timothy J Osborn, Academic Fellow
Climatic Research Unit
School of Environmental Sciences
University of East Anglia
Norwich  NR4 7TJ, UK

e-mail:   t.osborn@uea.ac.uk
phone:    +44 1603 592089
fax:      +44 1603 507784
web:      http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/~timo/
sunclock: http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/~timo/sunclock.htm


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