date: Fri Jan 28 17:04:11 2005
from: Phil Jones <p.jones@uea.ac.uk>
subject: Re: FW: Crok Story on Hocky Stick - English
to: "Folland, Chris" <chris.folland@metoffice.gov.uk>, JOLLIFFE IAN <i.jolliffe@maths.abdn.ac.uk>

    Chris,
      Have you seen this web site?  [1]http://www.realclimate.org/  Perhaps you should
    on this issue.
    Raising and lowering a series (i.e. changing the base period) won't affect the
    correlation matrix. So all the work CRU has done in this regard is unaffected
    by this.
    I also think it shouldn't make much difference to PCs calculated with the
    covariance matrix. It might change the order of some.
    This appears to relate to Mike's calculation of PCs using SVD. I'm  not good
    enough at Maths to know why.
    Mike does answer all this on the above web site.  Also the paper they mention
    coming out in GRL was reviewed by hydrologists.  It seems you can specify
    an editor and if the editor doesn't know the subject they can get it reviewed or
    send to one who does.  The editor here had an agenda.
     The web page is interesting, but whatever you do don't delve too deeply. It
    will just eat into your time and in the end be completely useless. Ray Bradley
    wanted something put there on 2004's temperatures. I gave him the WMO
    press release from mid-Dec04. Some of the comments on that are ridiculous.
    It has generated quite a few. The whole web site has got a lot of interest,
    but it is only for those with time on their hands.
    Cheers
    Phil
    Cheers
    Phil
   At 16:32 28/01/2005, Folland, Chris wrote:

     Phil
     If you base the data anomalies in an EOF analysis on a recent
     climatological period, does this really change the shape of the time
     series compared to the full period. This is a common method due to data
     limitations. This seems to be one key criticism of the Mann hockey stick
     (not the only one).
     Chris
     Professor Chris Folland
     Head of Climate Variability Research
     Global climate data sets are available from [2]http://www.hadobs.org
     Met Office, Hadley Centre, Fitzroy Rd, Exeter, Devon  EX1 3PB United
     Kingdom
     Email: chris.folland@metoffice.gov.uk
     Tel: +44 (0)1392 886646
     Fax: (in UK)  0870 900 5050
             (International) +44 (0)113 336 1072)<http://www.metoffice.gov.uk
     Also: Hon. Professor of School of Environmental Sciences, University of
     East Anglia

   Prof. Phil Jones
   Climatic Research Unit        Telephone +44 (0) 1603 592090
   School of Environmental Sciences    Fax +44 (0) 1603 507784
   University of East Anglia
   Norwich                          Email    p.jones@uea.ac.uk
   NR4 7TJ
   UK
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